steaming price

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George93
Posts: 5
Joined: Thu Jan 12, 2017 4:02 pm

While trading horse races pre-off, I sometimes bump into a problem I don't understand. The price of some horses begin shortening drastically at about 1-2 minutes before the off. I know about drifting and what not, that's mainly caused by a horse playing up or sweating or something like that and I understand that. As for the steaming, maiden or novice races, that we do not know a lot about can be very volatile because of new market information(?) that could be interviews with the trainers or owners I think. But in those cases when we know a lot about the horses and none of them plays up pre-off so there is no pressure for one to shorten drastically, what could be the case for such shortenings?

The interesting thing is when these selections trade around 10's and then their prices go under 10 a few odds.
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ShaunWhite
Posts: 9731
Joined: Sat Sep 03, 2016 3:42 am

Rumours and speculation plays a big part. And if you're talking about the ones around 10s then rememeber it might only take a few hundred quid to move it. If a horse starts at 10s and shortens to 8s, then it's only gone from a 10% chance to about 13%. That's within the bounds of how much opinion might differ from one punter to the next, esp if 'word' is circulating about it being in form.
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wearthefoxhat
Posts: 3207
Joined: Sun Feb 18, 2018 9:55 am

The on course betting market has essentially no impact on a steamer as they are plugged into the exchanges and mirror how those markets behave.

I have noticed the late interviews on ATR/RUK that indicate likely running style, ie: lead/prom,..etc, affect it quite markedly. Assessing the draw bias, or lack of with this info, can also impact a late market move, although bigger prices have already been snaffled and traders are ready to trade out before the off. There's quite a bit of free info on websites on predicting running styles, but in-play tactics can vary quite a lot.

Eg: Stall 1 or 2 at Chester, with a likely pace setter, will have attracted a steamers profile. If a trader can anticipate that pre-race, the market will go with them and the chance of a nice swing trade possible. I enjoy in-play trading, (using the BA In-play trader), so would be willing the take further profit if it runs as predicted. (not always a guarantee of course)

I like to find a reason for a steamer whenever possible, but have also found that drifters offer great value as they often win at inflated odds. Not really a trading point, but interesting all the same.
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