Hi all
I read that early speed is a key factor when betting/trading on horses, but I can't find any web site or accessible data base/api offering the information : either a classification of early speed horses (yes/no) or a "early speed rating".
Even information about the horses position at each call of a race whould do it for me, but I don't know where to get that information.
Does anybody know?
Thanks!
Looking for early speed horses
Have a look at the in-running ratings for each horse you'll see that for example horse 'A' traded at 80% of it's BF starting price in 75% of all it's races this can only happen if it shows good initial pace so in other words it has a tendency to be quick away and the odds tend to drop quickly as a result.
Sorry but I am a newbie and I don't get it.You see that information in the BSP column? So what would 7.80 (5.901) mean then? Starting price is 7.8 but the odds then droped to 5.901 (at first call?).ANGELS15 wrote: ↑Wed Dec 12, 2018 11:13 pmHave a look at the in-running ratings for each horse you'll see that for example horse 'A' traded at 80% of it's BF starting price in 75% of all it's races this can only happen if it shows good initial pace so in other words it has a tendency to be quick away and the odds tend to drop quickly as a result.
Have a look at the actual race cards on the site. For example 6.45 Chelmsford horse 'Pure shores': If you look at the top headings above the horse you see the various % of Betfair SP that the horses traded at. in this example Pure Shores has traded at 75% of it's Betfair sp 11 out of 14 times (79% of the time it's run) . So in other words it's price tends to drop quite quickly in-running which can be an indicator of good early pace although in fairness it can also indicate that it tends to travel very strongly in the first part of the race whereever it is positioned. So in order to narrow it down more there is a pace indicator column on the right of the race card. If you see red bars in the colours for that horse it indicates front running/early pace. So if your'e looking for early pace horses you want horses that very quickly drop in price and have the red bars in their pace indicator (there's a key at the bottom under the very last race of the day which tells you what the various symbols mean)pdenoeud wrote: ↑Wed Dec 12, 2018 11:24 pmSorry but I am a newbie and I don't get it.You see that information in the BSP column? So what would 7.80 (5.901) mean then? Starting price is 7.8 but the odds then droped to 5.901 (at first call?).ANGELS15 wrote: ↑Wed Dec 12, 2018 11:13 pmHave a look at the in-running ratings for each horse you'll see that for example horse 'A' traded at 80% of it's BF starting price in 75% of all it's races this can only happen if it shows good initial pace so in other words it has a tendency to be quick away and the odds tend to drop quickly as a result.
You can do this with the jump horses but obviously pace is very different to flat racing. There aren't any really good flat examples today but if you look at the 7.15 Chelmsford 'Fethiye Boy' has traded at 75% of it's BF starting price 63% of the time (12 out of 19 runs). It's also got several red bars in the pace indicator column. The bars equate to the last runs. In fact in this case Fethiye Boy has more red bars than the other runners. This could indicate a pacey horse.
Thank you very much Angels15!
When they say "50% BSP", do you think it is 50% of the odds, so for odds of 3 it would be 1+(3-1)*50% = 2?
Or I shall calculate based on the related probability? Odds of 3 mean 1/3 = 33.3% of probability to win, so "50% BSP" would be an increase of 50% of the non winning percentage : 33.3% + 50%*(100%-33.3%)= 66.6%, so odds of 1/66.6% = 1.5.
Also, do you know what they mean when they say "Green Text:Has traded to or below a percentage band a reasonable amount"?
For Legendoire there is "4 (31%)" in green for "10% BSP". Does it mean that for all 4 races when the horse traded at 10% of his BSP, a "reasonable amount" was traded around that price?
Thanks again for for your help!
When they say "50% BSP", do you think it is 50% of the odds, so for odds of 3 it would be 1+(3-1)*50% = 2?
Or I shall calculate based on the related probability? Odds of 3 mean 1/3 = 33.3% of probability to win, so "50% BSP" would be an increase of 50% of the non winning percentage : 33.3% + 50%*(100%-33.3%)= 66.6%, so odds of 1/66.6% = 1.5.
Also, do you know what they mean when they say "Green Text:Has traded to or below a percentage band a reasonable amount"?
For Legendoire there is "4 (31%)" in green for "10% BSP". Does it mean that for all 4 races when the horse traded at 10% of his BSP, a "reasonable amount" was traded around that price?
Thanks again for for your help!
I tend to regard the odds traded as the inclusive odds although there's been some debate about this. So betfair odds of 5.0, 50% odds traded = 2.5. One other thing you can do although this will not be free is to subscribe to services in like pace cards. I couldn't advise you any more about that service as I myself use timeform to cross reference the winning warlock site. a month's service by regular paypal payment is £70 but I consider it well worth it. You can pay weekly but I can't remember off the top of my head what that costs In the timeform figures it also shows their pace indicators and the in-play min and max odds traded. It's fairly self explanatory. Also another benefit with timeform is you can compare the horses ratings see it's draw no if on the flat plus other commentary that will help you. If you want to try timeform you're looking for their 'race passes' Their site is fairly easy to navigate around.
Thanks ANgels15
Just so you know, I checked the page https://www.winningwarlock.com/in-runni ... story.html
From the percentages I see, the correct calculation ofr percentages of BSP is th efirst one I mentioned : "When they say "50% BSP", do you think it is 50% of the odds, so for odds of 3 it would be 1+(3-1)*50% = 2?"
Just so you know, I checked the page https://www.winningwarlock.com/in-runni ... story.html
From the percentages I see, the correct calculation ofr percentages of BSP is th efirst one I mentioned : "When they say "50% BSP", do you think it is 50% of the odds, so for odds of 3 it would be 1+(3-1)*50% = 2?"
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I think it would be easier to go to https://www.attheraces.com/racecards
Its free click on form and click on pace and it shows you the horses with the early speed.
Its free click on form and click on pace and it shows you the horses with the early speed.
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+1 A very good free resource (hope sky don't tinker with it from Jan 2019)TipTopTrader wrote: ↑Fri Dec 14, 2018 12:10 amI think it would be easier to go to https://www.attheraces.com/racecards
Its free click on form and click on pace and it shows you the horses with the early speed.
Also RUK pace maps are free to use too. Go to racecards, click on time of race, find TF Pacemap;
Example; Run Style 1 = Leader/Front Runner
Bangor 11.50
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Thanks for confirming I've noticed this when I cross reference with timeform. I'll check out the attheraces and RUK sites as well.pdenoeud wrote: ↑Thu Dec 13, 2018 10:44 pmThanks ANgels15
Just so you know, I checked the page https://www.winningwarlock.com/in-runni ... story.html
From the percentages I see, the correct calculation ofr percentages of BSP is th efirst one I mentioned : "When they say "50% BSP", do you think it is 50% of the odds, so for odds of 3 it would be 1+(3-1)*50% = 2?"