Question for the Experts

The sport of kings.
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cookyweb
Posts: 70
Joined: Sun Apr 29, 2018 5:00 pm

Hi All,

Being honest I had Dallas in mind for this but I'm not sure if it's something you would do, anyone who can help I'd really appreciate.

I've been on and off pre race trading for a year now, taking it far more seriously for the last 6 months, I've posted a few times and been thankful for the help given.

Like most I've watched race after race looking for something to click, I've recorded lots of races and re-watched them late on a night and record things on excel sheets trying to spot patterns etc, I'm sure everyone knows what I mean as everyone must have been there.

I'm now at a stage where I feel like I've spotted an area to focus on, but I'm concerned that I'm focusing on the wrong thing.

What Id like to do if any of the experts are willing, is to private message an explanation of what I think I've seen and have someone say yes you are on the right tracks and to pursue it, or to say you're barking up the wrong tree and don't waste your time.

I'm not asking to take anything away from the forum or get into a private conversation giving me extra advice, it's the chance for me to say what I noticed and you guys to say don't waste your time on it or yes keep focusing as you're on the right tracks.

I hope that makes sense

Cookyweb
CallumPerry
Posts: 575
Joined: Wed Apr 19, 2017 5:12 pm
Location: Wolverhampton

I'm sure many would be willing but if it is a potentially good edge, why not backtest is using excel if you have been collecting the data? Over 500/1,000/10,000 markets depending how detailed you want to be, if it's still looking good stick £2 on and risk i.e. £30 of a £100 bank. I'd say £30 is worth losing for the knowledge you would gain and if it does work, you have profit and an edge which remains a secret.

This game is all about having confidence is what you do. Ask 100 people if your strategy should work and you could get a 50/50 response, does that tell you anything? If you think you've found something and there's a reason why you are seeing it, grab it by the balls and own it mate.
cookyweb
Posts: 70
Joined: Sun Apr 29, 2018 5:00 pm

Hi There,

Thanks for the response, I totally understand what you are saying and agree, but my biggest problem is around an 'Edge' what I'm talking about isnt something difficult or unique it's just something I noticed that seems to happen at some point in most races I watch in the final 10 minutes. Its something everyone probably notices when starting out but my issue is judging when it's likely to happen and if it can be turned into an edge.

My head has been a little messed up by reading about edges, the information appears to be very contradictive, when you first start out and you believe you can read a market, and predict where the price is likely to go and read the signals etc, however when you start to read about edges it kind of makes you stop looking at the market and how it moves and start looking for something specific, a specific set of circumstances that seems to repeat.

It makes you think you cant open a market and say whats happening here now, it seems you should be looking to say, is my specific set of circumstances present, if not then I don't get involved. Are we reading the flow of the moment and whats happening and making a judgement, or looking for this particular set of specific events to take place?

I'm not sure if that makes any sense at all :roll: :lol: but at this moment in time I feel muddled and a bit lost ;)
CallumPerry
Posts: 575
Joined: Wed Apr 19, 2017 5:12 pm
Location: Wolverhampton

cookyweb wrote:
Tue Jan 08, 2019 11:46 am
the information appears to be very contradictive
That's exactly what I mean, if you were to show it to a bunch of traders, it could be analysed many different ways. Ultimately an 'edge' is something you define. If it works, has done and will do for some time it is an edge. It may seem non-sensical to a lot of people but for some reason work. Somebody you show may be able to say "This is why" and something else clicks in your head to pursue it even further so pm a few traders you trust or hire a free lance statistician if you feel you need an answer. I may not be much help but would happily look at it to see if it opens any thoughts in my mind.
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wearthefoxhat
Posts: 3206
Joined: Sun Feb 18, 2018 9:55 am

I'm no expert, but judged on your approach and time/effort, anything you've noted/observed through race reading is worth its weight in gold.

Also worth keeping under your hat and scraping the profits into your exchange account. ;)
CallumPerry
Posts: 575
Joined: Wed Apr 19, 2017 5:12 pm
Location: Wolverhampton

To answer the final part if your previous message. I think I know what you mean and we do both. You are reading order flow but from inside your own head with parameters that you know to be true.

It's like driving a car. I can judge when to pull out a junction or on to a roundabout because I am used to seeing the speed of other cars, speed of my car, the angle of the bend, wind speed, fog/no fog and a load of other variables.

If I approached a new roundabout I've never seen before in a borrowed car, coming in at a precise angle I've never dealt with before and all of the aforementioned variables are different, do I still know how to do it? Yes. I am 'feeling' whether it is safe to move because my brain is calculating everything and making a 'rough estimate' of sureness.

When you're in a market you've never seen before you can sometimes feel what may happen because tiny similar aspects you haven't consciously thoughts about are helping you to make a decision. Obviously if it were something you've seen before then you'd say you were more confident in that trade. It's a psychological battleground inside your head all of the time. Once you've done that trade, something new is stored in your brain which may help you in the future. In essence, that's what learning is. Building blocks that create the whole picture. Have confidence. I feel like a fraudster giving advice and commenting on "Question for the experts" because truth is you and many others are probably way ahead of me.

Like the premier league's greatest manager says though, "Stay humble, work hard, we go again". Wise words by the godly Nuno Espirito Santo.
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ShaunWhite
Posts: 9731
Joined: Sat Sep 03, 2016 3:42 am

They say you can look for specific setups and only trade those, or you can trade more instinctively reacting to whatever presents itself to you. But imo those two are the same. In the second you actually have an arsenal of setups in mind (even subconsciously) and you're picking and choosing which one suits 'in the moment'. You're either responding to one situation, or to several. The more experience people have, the more you're likely they are to drift from the first method to the second, as more setups become of interest.

btw don't be concerned if your edge seems too simple, the best ones are. The fewer conditions there are the more likely it is to persist and the more chances you'll get to deploy it. The one I'm looking at lately is a prime example, I've tried every complex way you can think of to slice and dice the data, found very little, this new one is frankly something I could/should have spotted in my first month with decent data, but somehow didn't. I could describe it in just 4 words. I'm going to run it for a couple of months, accept that it might cost me a little bit to enter the prize draw ( I might have a winning ticket here, or I might not) and fingers crossed I don't end up being able to describe it with 4 more colourful words than I could now!

Feel free to PM me if you'd like a 2nd opinion.
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ruthlessimon
Posts: 2094
Joined: Wed Mar 23, 2016 3:54 pm

I know Callum's right; but at the same time, he aint turning down 1to1 with either Peter or Dallas to discuss his strategies

We all know you applied for the competition! :D
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ShaunWhite
Posts: 9731
Joined: Sat Sep 03, 2016 3:42 am

CallumPerry wrote:
Tue Jan 08, 2019 3:28 pm
Nuno Espirito Santo.
When I hear that name, I always wonder how much more exciting my life would have been if I'd be called that. It's got a certain ring to it, perhaps I'd have been an outlaw on the TexMex border making men tremble with fear and women swoon. But it's more likely that I'd just have ended up renting out pedalos and selling 2nd hand donkeys in Marbs ! :roll:
spreadbetting
Posts: 3140
Joined: Sun Jan 31, 2010 8:06 pm

Your best option would be to see if you can now profit from the 'edge' you think you've spotted. Everyone's approaching the markets with their own angles and scraps always get left on the table for various reasons. What you see as a good idea others may simply dismiss, so even if it turns out to be a blind alley you'll still learn a lot by simply trying to take advantage of this 'edge' rather than asking others.
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ShaunWhite
Posts: 9731
Joined: Sat Sep 03, 2016 3:42 am

ruthlessimon wrote:
Tue Jan 08, 2019 3:40 pm
I know Callum's right; but at the same time, he aint turning down 1to1 with either Peter or Dallas to discuss his strategies
All opinions are worth hearing, experience tells you which are worth heeding.

Re your comment though, Peter and Dallas might be 'the' guys.....if you (plan to) trade like Peter or Dallas. They'd be the first to admit they aren't the masters of every discipline and their methods are largely a lifestyle choice because they both like watching sport and aren't especially technical. I'm 180 degrees different and most of what they do sounds like pergatory to me, I'd be happy on 10% of their wages and have enjoyable days rather than doing what they do. I obvioulsy wouldn't pass up the chance to meet them, but neither would I expect it to particularly change my life.
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ruthlessimon
Posts: 2094
Joined: Wed Mar 23, 2016 3:54 pm

ShaunWhite wrote:
Tue Jan 08, 2019 4:16 pm
All opinions are worth hearing, experience tells you which are worth heeding.

Re your comment though, Peter and Dallas might be 'the' guys.....if you (plan to) trade like Peter or Dallas. They'd be the first to admit they aren't the masters of every discipline and their methods are largely a lifestyle choice because they both like watching sport and aren't especially technical. I'm 180 degrees different and most of what they do sounds like pergatory to me, I'd be happy on 10% of their wages and have enjoyable days rather than doing what they do. I obvioulsy wouldn't pass up the chance to meet them, but neither would I expect it to particularly change my life.
That's the thing, (& you'll know this more than anyone ;) ) my skill set isn't naturally tailored for data handling & analysis, unlike yourself (i.e. I didn't think lay prices were important!!).

I just know that a quantitative backbone is paramount to any sort of success (for a pure quant, or a market reader) - hence why I've spent so much time improving myself in this area.

Also, remember I came to trading because of the opportunity - not because I had skills which complement the opportunity
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Gauss
Posts: 137
Joined: Sun Sep 23, 2018 10:11 am

My simple answer to OP’s question would be to keep recording and keep studying and never ever give up.
CallumPerry
Posts: 575
Joined: Wed Apr 19, 2017 5:12 pm
Location: Wolverhampton

ruthlessimon wrote:
Tue Jan 08, 2019 3:40 pm
I know Callum's right; but at the same time, he aint turning down 1to1 with either Peter or Dallas to discuss his strategies

We all know you applied for the competition! :D
I absolutely did not pass that opportunity aha good learning resources are difficult to come by, to learn from one of the best is something I had to apply for... still waiting for the next lot of courses too. Or perhaps a personal invite to come down as I am so polite and try my hardest to contribute to the community ;) ;)

I'm happy to learn as much as I can from the naturally talented order flow followers and from the technical analysis sort. I think I fall somewhere in the middle so gain good, relevant knowledge from both ends. Learned as much from traders on this forum (yourself and Shaun included obviously) as outside of it.
cookyweb
Posts: 70
Joined: Sun Apr 29, 2018 5:00 pm

I just wanted to say thank you for all the replies, this forum is brilliant because whatever the question, no matter how silly it seems you always give really well worded and thought out answers.

Whenever I've posted I've come away thinking about things differently and feeling boosted.

Thanks everyone!
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