Whats your best pre-race advice when looking at the market?

The sport of kings.
Post Reply
User avatar
ShaunWhite
Posts: 9731
Joined: Sat Sep 03, 2016 3:42 am

elecotop wrote:
Sun Feb 03, 2019 4:10 pm
I find that JollyGreen's post a very informative. Which posts do you find most helpful?
Post from people who have the same trading style, personality, objectives, interests and approach as I do. What suits you and what suits other people aren't likely to be the same.

As an example, lots of people supplement their technical analysis with a keen interest in fundamentals. Eg Peter and tennis, he knows the players and how they're likely to respond to certain situations. I don't follow tennis so that approach is wrong for me. His manual trading of horses isn't as reliant on fundamentals (aside from the odd market behavior/trainer observations) so that's more interesting, but again it's not a perfect fit because I don't find watching the ladders for 30+hrs a week and a social life dictated by the major events calander appealing.

Before being swept along by someone who can tell a compelling and interesting story full of sage advice, however good it may be, ask yourself; What type of trader do you want to be? What's your attitude to money/time? What skills have you brought to the table? What related interests do you have? What's your temperament like, your attention span and boredom threshold? Is this something you plan to do for years or for decades? How much money are you prepared to invest? I can't tell you how much time I wasted early on by following people who were successful using their own specific approach rather thinking about the trader I wanted to be.
User avatar
ruthlessimon
Posts: 2094
Joined: Wed Mar 23, 2016 3:54 pm

ShaunWhite wrote:
Sun Feb 03, 2019 5:32 pm
it's not a perfect fit because I don't find watching the ladders for 30+hrs a week and a social life dictated by the major events calander appealing.
I think Peter just loves to pull that +ve slot machine; which is more valuable than some basic small talk ;) !

I'm the opposite; I wish the major events could dictate my year :mrgreen:
User avatar
ruthlessimon
Posts: 2094
Joined: Wed Mar 23, 2016 3:54 pm

elecotop wrote:
Sun Feb 03, 2019 1:39 am
What best advice would you give when looking at a pre-race market?
If you're struggling to trade intuitively, get into data asap

For me, this meant devin' my own backtesting sims in excel - meaning I can quickly switch/adjust variables on the fly (what happens if I back a Mdn? what happens if I back Cheltenham?)

Is it a magic bullet, no. But it can spot fascinating patterns

For example, the one I'm working on today (below). I didn't spot this, excel spotted it by doing random iterations - which worries me if AI becomes good :|
You do not have the required permissions to view the files attached to this post.
User avatar
ShaunWhite
Posts: 9731
Joined: Sat Sep 03, 2016 3:42 am

Well that's Christmas week sorted for you. Just 51 other strategies to find. :D
User avatar
ruthlessimon
Posts: 2094
Joined: Wed Mar 23, 2016 3:54 pm

ShaunWhite wrote:
Sun Feb 03, 2019 8:02 pm
Well that's Christmas week sorted for you :D
Yeah. Baked beans all round :)
User avatar
ShaunWhite
Posts: 9731
Joined: Sat Sep 03, 2016 3:42 am

Back to something for the OP though.... Probably to look first for the ways you could lose money rather than make it. It's easy to get tunnel vision on opportunities without seeing pitfalls like lack of money changing hands or the clock being near zero.
User avatar
ruthlessimon
Posts: 2094
Joined: Wed Mar 23, 2016 3:54 pm

ShaunWhite wrote:
Sun Feb 03, 2019 8:53 pm
Probably to look first for the ways you could lose money rather than make it. It's easy to get tunnel vision on opportunities without seeing pitfalls like lack of money changing hands or the clock being near zero.
Yah I agree

Rather than mull on the loser (i.e. backing @ 1.5), we generate 10 different ways we could've won on this race

Backtest each on a dataset, & what you might find is a strategy has always worked on that market (a mixture of annoyance/rage/joy when this happens btw!!)

What do the variables I've used to win on this race imply? Do I need all those variables?

That's what I do.

I am still on baked beans though :)
You do not have the required permissions to view the files attached to this post.
elecotop
Posts: 21
Joined: Sat Mar 12, 2016 11:16 am

ShaunWhite wrote:
Sun Feb 03, 2019 8:53 pm
Back to something for the OP though.... Probably to look first for the ways you could lose money rather than make it. It's easy to get tunnel vision on opportunities without seeing pitfalls like lack of money changing hands or the clock being near zero.
Its about knowing when to get in, whether that is just last 15 seconds trade, when the market ripe to enter
User avatar
ShaunWhite
Posts: 9731
Joined: Sat Sep 03, 2016 3:42 am

elecotop wrote:
Sun Feb 03, 2019 10:55 pm
ShaunWhite wrote:
Sun Feb 03, 2019 8:53 pm
Back to something for the OP though.... Probably to look first for the ways you could lose money rather than make it. It's easy to get tunnel vision on opportunities without seeing pitfalls like lack of money changing hands or the clock being near zero.
Its about knowing when to get in, whether that is just last 15 seconds trade, when the market ripe to enter
...and about when not to get in.

The clock zero I was refering to was the notional 'time zero' when the market expires. It was just one example from many. My point was simply that some people try to rob a bank by running in and starting shooting, others case the joint for guards and cctv first. Any fool can make money, it's not losing more that's important. There's situations when it's unwise to enter even if it's as you say 'ripe', just like there's times you should fold pocket aces pre-flop.
stueytrader
Posts: 863
Joined: Tue Dec 15, 2015 6:47 pm

Good point earlier about knowing what type of trader you want to be.

I also took a while to realise that doing what some experts were doing was totally not for me in trading. It has to fit with all your plans and aims in trading in a wider sense, including how you like spending your days, weeks, months every year.

As for reading the pre-market, I actually love the fact that there are literally thousands of different ways to play markets - means there's never a monopoly on winning at trading. 8-)
Last edited by stueytrader on Mon Feb 04, 2019 9:34 am, edited 1 time in total.
stueytrader
Posts: 863
Joined: Tue Dec 15, 2015 6:47 pm

My own personal advice would currently be opposite to some earlier on this post.

Don't hesitate too much on entering markets. Chances often move and are gone, and hesitation makes you too slow to take them, often.

But, I realise others may give exactly the opposite advice. The beauty of this game.
iambic_pentameter
Posts: 443
Joined: Wed May 18, 2016 1:24 pm

elecotop wrote:
Sun Feb 03, 2019 4:10 pm
iambic_pentameter wrote:
Sun Feb 03, 2019 1:17 pm
Focus on the bigger picture - accept that you need to go through multiple market cycles before you will fully understand what is happening and why.

A significant part of my knowledge has come from reading the posts of others on this forum.

Iambic
I find that JollyGreen's post a very informative. Which posts do you find most helpful?
Hi Elecotop,

The users who posts I've found helpful are - in no particular order, I might add!

JollyGreen
Euiler
Dallas
PeterLe
Gazuty
LinusP
Spreadbetting
Halliday
LeTiss
Mugsgame
To7ne
AndyFuller

Have a read through their posts and you will pick up a lot of good information.

Iambic
stueytrader
Posts: 863
Joined: Tue Dec 15, 2015 6:47 pm

iambic_pentameter wrote:
Mon Feb 04, 2019 11:07 am

JollyGreen
Euiler
Dallas
PeterLe
Gazuty
LinusP
Spreadbetting
Halliday
LeTiss
Mugsgame
To7ne
AndyFuller

Have a read through their posts and you will pick up a lot of good information.

Iambic
Might need to be slightly selective in trying to read all of those posts though, only the odd few thousand to get through..... :) :geek:
iambic_pentameter
Posts: 443
Joined: Wed May 18, 2016 1:24 pm

Stuey :mrgreen:
mobius
Posts: 203
Joined: Wed Oct 18, 2017 10:15 am

Flashback Express - it's free (my favourite price) will record forever and can playback multiple monitors at 4x speed.
Hang on a mo' I ;) 'll fire up and show.
Post Reply

Return to “Trading Horse racing”