Bankroll dusted but is theory sound

[CRMISH]

Hi

So I finally started using Bet Angel and love it I lost $150 in 3 days however I think in the long run should be profitable but please correct me if Im wrong as I am making some assumptions.

Using units of $5 I would average $1.50 per race, out of 30 races 20 wins 7 losses 3 evens.

My problem is 2 of the 7 losses are for $20ish, the others tiny and factored into the average of $1.50 a race.

The assumption I would like to hear peoples views on is this - If Im getting my back bets matched at a minimum of 130% of Price offered by Bet365 within 4hrs of jump time they would have to still be OVERS or very worst case break even in the long run.

I have a very hard time thinking that I should lay out with a loss when my money is on at $9.60, $12.00, and $16.00 when Bet365 priced it at $5.50.

Why I lost my trial bankroll I believe lies in bankroll management. I would assume if I had a bankroll of $500 I be still be alive to let the long run even out my results. Is this fair?

Would really appreciate contrary views as I really want to learn and turn it into a full-time income one day.

Thanks alot

[iambic_pentameter]

I'm not really sure what you are trying to do here - hopefully someone else can help you.

In terms of making a full time income from this - and by this I mean trading rather than outright backing or laying, you need to put a lot of hours in.

Bankroll management is critical - I've no idea what your original bankroll was but if it was $500 and you lost $150 (30%) that in my opinion is too high.

I would suggest you look at the Bet Angel channel on Youtube and also the Bet Angel academy - that will give you some ideas to start with.

Best of luck,

Iambic

[CRMISH]

$150 was the bankroll.

My goal is to scalp but only ever enter a Back Bet at 130% of Bet365 price or a Lay Bet at 95-100% of Bet365 price. My theory is if I can close out before it jumps for a very small profit great, but if not I still think in the long run I should still be in good shape assuming I have a bankroll to take the swings.

[iambic_pentameter]

For scalping, you really want to be looking at high grade races that aren't volatile. Peter posted a video recently saying that the markets are being more volatile so whilst thats not to say scalping isn't possible, you need to be very selective.

Personally, I would watch a few markets to get a feel for how they move before you start putting that kind of sum through the markets.

And forget the Bet365 price - just go off what you see on the exchange.

Iambic

[CRMISH]

Yeah def not ready to quit just yet lol I am a reformed mug punter so I figure I would have previously blown that cash on a multi anyway and dont mind paying for some skin in the game education.

Thanks for your reply, may I ask why you say to ignore the Bet365 price? I would of thought that they would have more resources than anyone and their prices (minus 27.5%) would be a more accurate guide to true odds ?

I dont understand how something offered by the sportsbooks @ $5.50 goes out to $16.00 on Betfair. Surely the real odds of this horse hasnt changed by that much in a few hours?

[ShaunWhite]

$150 was the bankroll.

With a $150 bankroll your max loss on any one trade should be iro $1.50 - $2. Any more than that and you won't make it through the inevitable downturns. I'm not taking about maximum expose, that might be $75 but when you close your trade -1% of bankroll is about the most you should be thinking of.

In trading, preservation of working capital is key. That will also make you think about the risks you're exposed to by technical outages. If a powercut or internet outage before you close out might cost you your entitre bankroll, then you need to reconsider your staking.

Good luck...slow down on the staking, this takes a long time to learn and you don't want to run out of money before you make money. Start with $2 and making cents, and build from there.

100% agree with comments about bookies prices not being relevent. But why oh why oh why scalping? It's way harder than it looks and opportunities aren't very frequent. Give yourself half a chance and do some slo-mo swing trading first so you can actually see what's going on. New people just don't have the market reading skills and cat-like reactions you need to scalp, recommending it to newbies should be banned. It's like putting a learner driver on a motorway.

[ShaunWhite]

Surely the real odds of this horse hasnt changed by that much in a few hours?

Try to eliminate 'surely' from your vocabulary. Are you 90% surely or 99.9% surely?

What are the chances that there is a reason, and what would be the consequences be of you being involved if there was or wasn't a reason? Risk/reward.

But you're still thinking like a punter really, your question should be will that horse at 16 come back in or continue to drift, rather than just is that horse worth punting.

[CRMISH]

Yeah true, I didnt even think about tech issues that def changes the way I will think about trading strategies THANK YOU you may have saved me alot of cash.

I think I really shouldnt have used the term scalping. I go in early place both a back and lay (3x favs), if either gets taken ill let it run my way 4-5 ticks hopefully close. If 1min to go Ill take any profit, or sometimes can just green up to $1-3. And that works more often than not.

Coming from doing just straight out sports betting where its not about winning as much as it is getting value, I mentally struggle dumping a horse when I feel its still a positive EV bet. What I cant understand and I probably sound stupid is why cant the odds offered by Bet365 be used as I guide? Surely worst case laying favs at what they offer is a long term winner?

Im so hung up on using other books prices as a guide as I really have no interest in doing all the hours and hours of form, especially coming from a position of zero knowledge of horse racing.

I think I will put $500 in and use units of $1. If I match my Lay bet and cant get out Ill HODL, If I cant lay my Back bet Ill HODL and hopefully Im out before the jump 99% of the time haha

Thanks for your help

[CRMISH]

Surely the real odds of this horse hasnt changed by that much in a few hours?

But you're still thinking like a punter really, your question should be will that horse at 16 come back in or continue to drift, rather than just is that horse worth punting.

Yeah ok food for thought, Ill research into predicting price movements. Cheers

[CRMISH]

Surely the real odds of this horse hasnt changed by that much in a few hours?

What are the chances that there is a reason, and what would be the consequences be of you being involved if there was or wasn't a reason? Risk/reward.

What sort of reasons? Weather I understand. But same horse, same jockey, same barrier, same competitors.

[iambic_pentameter]

Yeah def not ready to quit just yet lol I am a reformed mug punter so I figure I would have previously blown that cash on a multi anyway and dont mind paying for some skin in the game education.

Thanks for your reply, may I ask why you say to ignore the Bet365 price? I would of thought that they would have more resources than anyone and their prices (minus 27.5%) would be a more accurate guide to true odds ?

I dont understand how something offered by the sportsbooks @ $5.50 goes out to $16.00 on Betfair. Surely the real odds of this horse hasnt changed by that much in a few hours?

I prefer to use the exchanges as a barometer as to what the price should be. There is a school of thought that the bookies follow the exchanges.

As to why the odds have gone out, could be for a number of reasons.

To start with, focus on races with short priced favourites i.e. under 3.0 and see what the price does in the last 10 minutes - note what other runners are doing in the race in terms of price movements as well. Watch enough of these and you will perhaps see some patterns emerging.

Final bit of advice - from personal experience - don't over complicate things; focus on one type of market like I mentioned above and then move on.

Iambic

[CRMISH]

Yeah I think there is gold there. Most of the time I found if the fav crashes in the other two(or one of them) blow out or visa versa.
That other post was right about the punters mentality. I dont like the idea of backing a fav at less than I could of previously BUT as you say if its in that range and I notice the other one or both the 2nd and 3rd fav going out its prob a good indicator the fav will shorten hmmmm

Legend, thanks alot will do GL

[ShaunWhite]

What sort of reasons? Weather I understand. But same horse, same jockey, same barrier, same competitors.

'Whispers' for other horses, running around without a jockey on, horses from same yard doing really badly earlier, rumour of a knock being transported, sweating or acting up in the parade ring. Remember a 5.0 horse that drifts to 10 has only gone from being a 20% chance to a 10% chance, that's not crazy when something else enters the ring looking well up for it and their owner has already got a cigar lit.

There's probably loads of other reasons too but I don't follow horses and hardly ever watch it these days.

[CallumPerry]

Just scanning this thread but one thing that stands out is your money management. If you can blow 100% of your starter bank in 3 days then there is a massive problem. It is unlikely you experienced the worst run of your life in your test so harsher waters are yet to come. Like Shaun said, use a % (tiny one too) percentage of your bank for each trade so just get used to making/losing pennies for now. It's not about the money rather than winning a big 'number' than you lose. Think of it as a number game instead of actual money and a puzzle.

You seem very humble in taking/asking for advice which is fantastic. Not having to deal with an ego/pride will help massively. Keep grounded, put the work in and learn as much as you can before 'trying to make money' from it.

1) Devise a money management plan and STICK TO IT
2) Try something other than scalping (make it easier for yourself), find something you like and get good at it before moving to something else
3) Enjoy what you trade. Enjoy the sport you're trading else it would feel like work. Alternatively enjoy looking at spreadsheets/data and finding answers to puzzles else that will feel like work. Find what words best for you.

Good luck!

[CRMISH]

All really good advice cheers back to practice mode for awhile. Ill scrap the Bet365 odds altogether. I had figured it would be a safe way to set an entry position but am convinced otherwise now.