Bankroll dusted but is theory sound

The sport of kings.
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iambic_pentameter
Posts: 443
Joined: Wed May 18, 2016 1:24 pm

CRMISH wrote:
Fri Feb 22, 2019 3:24 pm
Yeah def not ready to quit just yet lol I am a reformed mug punter so I figure I would have previously blown that cash on a multi anyway and dont mind paying for some skin in the game education.

Thanks for your reply, may I ask why you say to ignore the Bet365 price? I would of thought that they would have more resources than anyone and their prices (minus 27.5%) would be a more accurate guide to true odds ?

I dont understand how something offered by the sportsbooks @ $5.50 goes out to $16.00 on Betfair. Surely the real odds of this horse hasnt changed by that much in a few hours?
I prefer to use the exchanges as a barometer as to what the price should be. There is a school of thought that the bookies follow the exchanges.

As to why the odds have gone out, could be for a number of reasons.

To start with, focus on races with short priced favourites i.e. under 3.0 and see what the price does in the last 10 minutes - note what other runners are doing in the race in terms of price movements as well. Watch enough of these and you will perhaps see some patterns emerging.

Final bit of advice - from personal experience - don't over complicate things; focus on one type of market like I mentioned above and then move on.

Iambic
CRMISH
Posts: 8
Joined: Fri Feb 22, 2019 1:49 pm

Yeah I think there is gold there. Most of the time I found if the fav crashes in the other two(or one of them) blow out or visa versa.
That other post was right about the punters mentality. I dont like the idea of backing a fav at less than I could of previously BUT as you say if its in that range and I notice the other one or both the 2nd and 3rd fav going out its prob a good indicator the fav will shorten hmmmm

Legend, thanks alot will do GL
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ShaunWhite
Posts: 9731
Joined: Sat Sep 03, 2016 3:42 am

CRMISH wrote:
Fri Feb 22, 2019 4:02 pm
What sort of reasons? Weather I understand. But same horse, same jockey, same barrier, same competitors.
'Whispers' for other horses, running around without a jockey on, horses from same yard doing really badly earlier, rumour of a knock being transported, sweating or acting up in the parade ring. Remember a 5.0 horse that drifts to 10 has only gone from being a 20% chance to a 10% chance, that's not crazy when something else enters the ring looking well up for it and their owner has already got a cigar lit.

There's probably loads of other reasons too but I don't follow horses and hardly ever watch it these days.
CallumPerry
Posts: 575
Joined: Wed Apr 19, 2017 5:12 pm
Location: Wolverhampton

Just scanning this thread but one thing that stands out is your money management. If you can blow 100% of your starter bank in 3 days then there is a massive problem. It is unlikely you experienced the worst run of your life in your test so harsher waters are yet to come. Like Shaun said, use a % (tiny one too) percentage of your bank for each trade so just get used to making/losing pennies for now. It's not about the money rather than winning a big 'number' than you lose. Think of it as a number game instead of actual money and a puzzle.

You seem very humble in taking/asking for advice which is fantastic. Not having to deal with an ego/pride will help massively. Keep grounded, put the work in and learn as much as you can before 'trying to make money' from it.

1) Devise a money management plan and STICK TO IT
2) Try something other than scalping (make it easier for yourself), find something you like and get good at it before moving to something else
3) Enjoy what you trade. Enjoy the sport you're trading else it would feel like work. Alternatively enjoy looking at spreadsheets/data and finding answers to puzzles else that will feel like work. Find what words best for you.

Good luck!
CRMISH
Posts: 8
Joined: Fri Feb 22, 2019 1:49 pm

All really good advice cheers back to practice mode for awhile. Ill scrap the Bet365 odds altogether. I had figured it would be a safe way to set an entry position but am convinced otherwise now.
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