Horse race venues, how big of a difference does it make?

[johnsheppard]

Hiya guys,

I am a noob, I am exploring algotrading (looong way to go).... I will likely be niching down to horse racing and plotting out a database with all the track data in it. I was wondering, can anyone tell me is this business so competitive that I would need to analyse the characteristics of algotrades depending on the shape of the race track?

For example. A lay the field strategy, I would presume would be more successful on tracks that have a big bend at the end and a short straight? (Where the regular joe punter has little time to manage their excitement or perhaps where there is likely to be lots of changes of leads (or at least non obvious winners))...

Say for example... Flemington in Australia;
https://www.racenet.com.au/tracks/vic/flemington

I would guess it is not a good track for lay the field because the straight at the end is too long?

Thank you kindly for any thoughts
John

[Wildly]

Leader dominated tracks are more likely to have short straights and be difficult to lay multiple runners at short price.

[johnsheppard]

Leader dominated tracks are more likely to have short straights and be difficult to lay multiple runners at short price.

ahh ic, so I had it back to front. Makes sense. In the process of my thoughts yesterday, I figured that it probably isn't neceessary to try and model success based on shape of track. It's just a matter of looking at the numbers/backdata etc...

Starting to realise that everything is in the numbers, instead of trying to model fundamental stuff....at least I think...still learning...

Thank you kindly

[Euler]

Cutting data by course and distance can have a demonstrably positive effect on any strategy.

[Derek27]

Leader dominated tracks are more likely to have short straights and be difficult to lay multiple runners at short price.

ahh ic, so I had it back to front. Makes sense. In the process of my thoughts yesterday, I figured that it probably isn't neceessary to try and model success based on shape of track. It's just a matter of looking at the numbers/backdata etc...

Starting to realise that everything is in the numbers, instead of trying to model fundamental stuff....at least I think...still learning...

Thank you kindly

It's not so much the shape of the track but its general nature. A stiff uphill finish, particularly for chases can result in changing positions in the final stages. A long galloping straight like York in a well run race can be quite stamina-sapping. And you could also consider the composition of the field. A few front runners to ensure a strong pace will also make a difference.

[johnsheppard]

It's not so much the shape of the track but its general nature. A stiff uphill finish, particularly for chases can result in changing positions in the final stages. A long galloping straight like York in a well run race can be quite stamina-sapping. And you could also consider the composition of the field. A few front runners to ensure a strong pace will also make a difference.

I see! That makes a lot of sense too. Thank you, good food for thought. All the fundamental stuff gets very complicated! Punters must go insane trying to calculate all that stuff...

In terms of composition of field I presume starting price is a good indicator to use as opposed to fundamentalist stuff. E.g. Lay the field strategy one would want the more favoured horses to be fairly similarly priced...Then perhaps in running, one could abort the trade if there are no close front runners maybe...

Thank you again. Stuff to work through!
John