Charting from Excel in BA

The sport of kings.
Atho55
Posts: 637
Joined: Tue Oct 06, 2015 1:37 pm
Location: Home of Triumph Motorcycles

As you appear to be the "chart guru" would you be interested in producing one for the strategy criteria to the dates I mention above. I have about 20 days worth of data missing at the front end so can`t do it.

Interested to see how it compares to same time last year.
Atho55
Posts: 637
Joined: Tue Oct 06, 2015 1:37 pm
Location: Home of Triumph Motorcycles

You on that one Valda?
Valda
Posts: 106
Joined: Mon Sep 17, 2018 8:11 pm

Yep :D
User avatar
wearthefoxhat
Posts: 3206
Joined: Sun Feb 18, 2018 9:55 am

Atho55 wrote:
Wed Mar 20, 2019 4:28 pm
You on that one Valda?
On that one Atho55? Class 5 AWR...


Algorithm from Racing Post gave confirmation...

Ling455.PNG
You do not have the required permissions to view the files attached to this post.
Atho55
Posts: 637
Joined: Tue Oct 06, 2015 1:37 pm
Location: Home of Triumph Motorcycles

Yes it was selected... has been a few today
User avatar
wearthefoxhat
Posts: 3206
Joined: Sun Feb 18, 2018 9:55 am

Atho55 wrote:
Fri Mar 22, 2019 5:30 pm
Yes it was selected... has been a few today
Add this one too. (Class 4) but confirmed by the Racing Post algo spread. Tiercel @ 50.00

Newc700RP.PNG
You do not have the required permissions to view the files attached to this post.
Valda
Posts: 106
Joined: Mon Sep 17, 2018 8:11 pm

BBets Wins Win% P/L(SP) Places Place% Races Race% ROI(SP) P/L(BF)
8958 812 9.06 -2281.18 2203 24.59 8958 9.06 -25.47 -1178.64

blind backing rank 4 and 5 in 5 runner races , 12 years data - loss in every year - profit 2019 so far

Do the other combinations later.

loss over 12 years to BFSP - 1178.64 points
cant get it to line up properly :D
Valda
Posts: 106
Joined: Mon Sep 17, 2018 8:11 pm

Bets Wins Win% P/L(SP) Places Place% Races Race% ROI(SP) P/L(BF)
24372 2003 8.22 -5731.77 5151 21.13 12241 16.36 -23.52 -1609.65


Rank 4 and 5 in 6 runner races - 2 years profitable - 2019 profitable so far - 9 years losses
total loss to BFSP - 1609.65 points
Valda
Posts: 106
Joined: Mon Sep 17, 2018 8:11 pm

Bets Wins Win% P/L(SP) Places Place% Races Race% ROI(SP) P/L(BF)
52517 3562 6.78 -11128.17 13229 25.19 13370 26.64 -21.19 1311.28


Rank 4, 5, 7, 8, 10 in 10 runner races shows a profit of 1311.28 with losses in 3 of the 12 years.


looks like the one to hunt for additional variables.
elofan0
Posts: 316
Joined: Fri Jan 13, 2017 4:44 pm

fantastic chart thanks for sharing .. is the stratedgy not available to the chart or am i missing something ...
Valda
Posts: 106
Joined: Mon Sep 17, 2018 8:11 pm

Bets Wins Win% P/L(SP) Places Place% Races Race% ROI(SP) P/L(BF)
44138 3020 6.84 -10486.82 11162 25.29 11737 25.73 -23.76 -2101.5

rank 4,5,7,8,10,11 in 11 runner races
total loss - 2101 , profitable in 3 out of 12 years.


Thats as far as i can go as HRB only lists BFSP rank up to 10, after that it is 11 and higher.
Atho55
Posts: 637
Joined: Tue Oct 06, 2015 1:37 pm
Location: Home of Triumph Motorcycles

Thanks for the data Valda. It will be interesting to see how it actually performs moving forwards.

Losses on Wed & Thur but yesterday it did ok.
Strat A 2303.png
Isolating the 1st and 2nd place runners it still looks like there is some value doing BTL rather than expiry
Strat A 2303 1st & 2nd Places.png
With 3rd place not looking too shabby either
Strat A 2303 3rd Place.png
You do not have the required permissions to view the files attached to this post.
Valda
Posts: 106
Joined: Mon Sep 17, 2018 8:11 pm

Looking at your result pictures Atho - for winners and B2L - 10 runner races look best .
That agrees with my data run.
As you say be interesting to see how it works out.

Going to do a bit more study on 10 runner races and see if I can find a couple of additional variables ( without silly backfitting )
Atho55
Posts: 637
Joined: Tue Oct 06, 2015 1:37 pm
Location: Home of Triumph Motorcycles

This sheet is for use in the football markets and connects to the BA template via Guardian. It picks up the Back and Lay odds for Match Odds, Correct Score, OU 1.5, 2.5 & 3,5 for up to 20 fixtures.

It relies on entering the markets into Guardian in a specific order which should be easier using the new features.

The output looks like this.
Chelsea v Burnley.png
The order of entry into Guardian is like this.
BA Chelsea v Burnley.png
Footy Odds Grabber.7z
You do not have the required permissions to view the files attached to this post.
Atho55
Posts: 637
Joined: Tue Oct 06, 2015 1:37 pm
Location: Home of Triumph Motorcycles

The sheet in the previous post was designed to gather data as part of an exercise to look at the relationship between the Home or 1 part of Match Odds and the Actual Result and see if any value can be found in the odds offered by BF v Odds from previous results.

I think the nuts and bolts of what I am doing is correct but would appreciate any errors being pointed out.

Taking the Chelsea v Burnley game as an example.

Odds Range. This comes from FlashScores and is 1.22 to 1.28 over the Bookies shown.
Flash Chelsea v Burnley.png
Inserting these values into a database that contains both Home Odds (Pinnacle) and the Actual Result it becomes possible to count the occurances of each Actual Result v the Odds Range. The idea being that it points us towards what results occur the most. This is the Top Table.

The second part is a screenshot of the odds as gathered by the spreadsheet connected to BA this morning.

The third part is how I believe the Implied Probability then Odds from the IP are calculated with the BF Actual odds inserted below.

The fourth part is a consolidation of the Actual result totals to the BF Heads with Any Other Home Win increasing along with the IP% and Odds.

There looks to be a reasonable alignment to BF from the calculated odds v the scores that they deem to be most likely and the others suffering from what I believe is called "Longshot Bias"

Value Bet looks to be 0-0 purely on BF odds being offered v calculated odds.

Chelsea v Burnley Odds Test.png

This was a draft on the Man City v Spurs game.

Man City v Spurs.png
It`s a mash up of data from various sources but looks to give a reasonable comparison of odds.
You do not have the required permissions to view the files attached to this post.
Post Reply

Return to “Trading Horse racing”