Been gathering data for just under 7 weeks so showing what worked yesterday is no guarantee that it will work ever again BUT...
From a table that feeds 20 odd pivots each with fixed criteria, Cheltenham on a strategy that looks simply at Runners v Rank produced this. The criteria is in the Yellow Box above the title
Unusually Southwell also did well on the same criteria
The other 2 courses both lost...
Charting from Excel in BA
This is an Excel spreadsheet set up to both chart the Back Odds for 7 runners and give a visualisation of matched money entering the market on the same 7 runners.
It connects to BA via the Excel tab on the main interface or via Guardian.
The output looks like this
Pressing the Stop button will stop the charting but the money continues to collect should you wish to have an overview.
Couple of dont`s to follow. Do not write in cell A:1, Do not delete cell B:37 and it does not like things over the top of it.
Any problems, ask away
It connects to BA via the Excel tab on the main interface or via Guardian.
The output looks like this
Pressing the Stop button will stop the charting but the money continues to collect should you wish to have an overview.
Couple of dont`s to follow. Do not write in cell A:1, Do not delete cell B:37 and it does not like things over the top of it.
Any problems, ask away
You do not have the required permissions to view the files attached to this post.
The 1st post in this thread was made in the Cheltenham thread and transferred to here by Dallas. It detailed from a series of pivot tables the one that performed the best on day 1. The other days for Cheltenham are below.
2 winning days, 2 losing days.
2 winning days, 2 losing days.
You do not have the required permissions to view the files attached to this post.
-
- Posts: 83
- Joined: Thu Oct 06, 2016 12:04 pm
Hi,
Thank you for sharing the charting excel!
I don't understand the strategy examples though. Does it simply back 4, 5, 7 etc... runner at BSP ranked order?
Thanks,
Laurent
Thank you for sharing the charting excel!
I don't understand the strategy examples though. Does it simply back 4, 5, 7 etc... runner at BSP ranked order?
Thanks,
Laurent
You are looking for races that have 5, 6, 10, 11, 14 or 18 runners
The BSP is less than 100
You place a bet on Rank or Favourite at the off on 4, 5, 7, 8, 10, 11 & 16
I picked up on it just after the quarantine break and backfitted it to the start of the data collection but kept it running to see if it had any future merit.
These are the results for February and March which are flattered by the 6 extraordinary days and some other decent wins. These are results from data collection and not actual bets placed in the market although I would think that a Back bet stake of £25 in the IP market would be possible.
The BSP is less than 100
You place a bet on Rank or Favourite at the off on 4, 5, 7, 8, 10, 11 & 16
I picked up on it just after the quarantine break and backfitted it to the start of the data collection but kept it running to see if it had any future merit.
These are the results for February and March which are flattered by the 6 extraordinary days and some other decent wins. These are results from data collection and not actual bets placed in the market although I would think that a Back bet stake of £25 in the IP market would be possible.
You do not have the required permissions to view the files attached to this post.
Yes that is a good start. I had a browse at the Ranking results this morning. Rank 11 & 16 bringing nothing to the party at the moment. Rank 11 is roughly -£2k so might be worth dropping those if they continue to underperform. Can post the results tomorrow for today if you want to do a x check.
- ShaunWhite
- Posts: 9731
- Joined: Sat Sep 03, 2016 3:42 am
Is this purely based on rank, or some other qualifications? I can't see how rank in itself has any underlying reason to perform long term.
And by looking at rank, aren't you indevertantly just looking at price?
And by looking at rank, aren't you indevertantly just looking at price?
That would be interesting - good price rank 5 just won - today will be good.Atho55 wrote: ↑Tue Mar 19, 2019 3:37 pmYes that is a good start. I had a browse at the Ranking results this morning. Rank 11 & 16 bringing nothing to the party at the moment. Rank 11 is roughly -£2k so might be worth dropping those if they continue to underperform. Can post the results tomorrow for today if you want to do a x check.
I’m pretty sure races where 1st fav is < x will be ones to avoid and I reckon x will vary by runners and race type, but maybe not. Worth studying.
It’s looking at historical occurances and seeking an edge from that. Odd approach yes but as valid as looking at 7 day runners or trainer stats - does the result repeat at a rate which would yield a +ev.ShaunWhite wrote: ↑Tue Mar 19, 2019 4:36 pmIs this purely based on rank, or some other qualifications? I can't see how rank in itself has any underlying reason to perform long term.
And by looking at rank, aren't you indevertantly just looking at price?
- ShaunWhite
- Posts: 9731
- Joined: Sat Sep 03, 2016 3:42 am
I'd never look at trainer stats etc, that's not my type of thing. I was just curious to understand how rank/price/number of runners had any logical basis.Valda wrote: ↑Tue Mar 19, 2019 4:49 pmIt’s looking at historical occurances and seeking an edge from that. Odd approach yes but as valid as looking at 7 day runners or trainer stats - does the result repeat at a rate which would yield a +ev.ShaunWhite wrote: ↑Tue Mar 19, 2019 4:36 pmIs this purely based on rank, or some other qualifications? I can't see how rank in itself has any underlying reason to perform long term.
And by looking at rank, aren't you indevertantly just looking at price?
Don't get me wrong, I've no doubt you're seeing something and I've no doubt you can find anomalies like that which appear to work across a whole year of data....but why would it also be there next year? I don't trust anything I've found profitable last month to work next month unless I've understood why it should still be there. It's like those fund manager performance tables, someone has to be top and most of the time that's the only time they are.
There is no guarantee that it will work tomorrow, next week or ever again but what does happen is that horses fall (Sir Erec) outsiders come in and all the other unpredictable stuff that turns into unexpected results.
It`s as simple as that and it`s worked today (I believe), yesterday and the day before so why worry what might happen next year.
It`s as simple as that and it`s worked today (I believe), yesterday and the day before so why worry what might happen next year.
-
- Posts: 83
- Joined: Thu Oct 06, 2016 12:04 pm
It's a pretty amazing approach. Does it take race type into consideration (Flat or Jumps)? Does it perform on Hcaps and non-Hcaps alike?
I'll ad it my automated betting for small stakes. We'll see.
Best,
Laurent
I'll ad it my automated betting for small stakes. We'll see.
Best,
Laurent