Charting from Excel in BA

The sport of kings.
Valda
Posts: 106
Joined: Mon Sep 17, 2018 8:11 pm

Bets Wins Win% P/L(SP) Places Place% Races Race% ROI(SP) P/L(BF)
44138 3020 6.84 -10486.82 11162 25.29 11737 25.73 -23.76 -2101.5

rank 4,5,7,8,10,11 in 11 runner races
total loss - 2101 , profitable in 3 out of 12 years.


Thats as far as i can go as HRB only lists BFSP rank up to 10, after that it is 11 and higher.
Atho55
Posts: 637
Joined: Tue Oct 06, 2015 1:37 pm
Location: Home of Triumph Motorcycles

Thanks for the data Valda. It will be interesting to see how it actually performs moving forwards.

Losses on Wed & Thur but yesterday it did ok.
Strat A 2303.png
Isolating the 1st and 2nd place runners it still looks like there is some value doing BTL rather than expiry
Strat A 2303 1st & 2nd Places.png
With 3rd place not looking too shabby either
Strat A 2303 3rd Place.png
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Valda
Posts: 106
Joined: Mon Sep 17, 2018 8:11 pm

Looking at your result pictures Atho - for winners and B2L - 10 runner races look best .
That agrees with my data run.
As you say be interesting to see how it works out.

Going to do a bit more study on 10 runner races and see if I can find a couple of additional variables ( without silly backfitting )
Atho55
Posts: 637
Joined: Tue Oct 06, 2015 1:37 pm
Location: Home of Triumph Motorcycles

This sheet is for use in the football markets and connects to the BA template via Guardian. It picks up the Back and Lay odds for Match Odds, Correct Score, OU 1.5, 2.5 & 3,5 for up to 20 fixtures.

It relies on entering the markets into Guardian in a specific order which should be easier using the new features.

The output looks like this.
Chelsea v Burnley.png
The order of entry into Guardian is like this.
BA Chelsea v Burnley.png
Footy Odds Grabber.7z
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Atho55
Posts: 637
Joined: Tue Oct 06, 2015 1:37 pm
Location: Home of Triumph Motorcycles

The sheet in the previous post was designed to gather data as part of an exercise to look at the relationship between the Home or 1 part of Match Odds and the Actual Result and see if any value can be found in the odds offered by BF v Odds from previous results.

I think the nuts and bolts of what I am doing is correct but would appreciate any errors being pointed out.

Taking the Chelsea v Burnley game as an example.

Odds Range. This comes from FlashScores and is 1.22 to 1.28 over the Bookies shown.
Flash Chelsea v Burnley.png
Inserting these values into a database that contains both Home Odds (Pinnacle) and the Actual Result it becomes possible to count the occurances of each Actual Result v the Odds Range. The idea being that it points us towards what results occur the most. This is the Top Table.

The second part is a screenshot of the odds as gathered by the spreadsheet connected to BA this morning.

The third part is how I believe the Implied Probability then Odds from the IP are calculated with the BF Actual odds inserted below.

The fourth part is a consolidation of the Actual result totals to the BF Heads with Any Other Home Win increasing along with the IP% and Odds.

There looks to be a reasonable alignment to BF from the calculated odds v the scores that they deem to be most likely and the others suffering from what I believe is called "Longshot Bias"

Value Bet looks to be 0-0 purely on BF odds being offered v calculated odds.

Chelsea v Burnley Odds Test.png

This was a draft on the Man City v Spurs game.

Man City v Spurs.png
It`s a mash up of data from various sources but looks to give a reasonable comparison of odds.
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Atho55
Posts: 637
Joined: Tue Oct 06, 2015 1:37 pm
Location: Home of Triumph Motorcycles

This is an approximate 6 month update from the last post for the rule Back BSP Rank 4, 5, 7, 8, 10, 11, 16 when the race has 5, 6, 10, 11, 14, 18 runners and the BSP is <100. It`s collated from BF data via Excel Pivot table and obviously assumes you get matched at BSP every time. Commission is not considered. Stake is £25 Back bet.
Strategy A.jpg
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Atho55
Posts: 637
Joined: Tue Oct 06, 2015 1:37 pm
Location: Home of Triumph Motorcycles

Tracking this year v a partial of last year it looks to be on target returns wise. If it follows the past then potential wins due followed by 2 spells of losses.
Strategy A Planned v Actual.jpg
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