Dutching horse racing.

The sport of kings.
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peterb1129
Posts: 25
Joined: Sat Dec 24, 2016 4:56 pm

Hi All,

I'm new to Bet Angel and trading, however I have been watching videos on trading for a few weeks now. I do like the Dutching tool on Bet Angel and would like to pursue this as my main strategy. I did my first Dutching trade today (with a very small stake till I am more comfortable with the whole process) on a correct football score market which came in. I haven't tried horse racing yet, as I'm not to familiar with horse racing in general. If anyone could please pass me any pointers in terms of what they look for in the race cards e.g, small/large number of runners, wide variety of odds, not a great deal in odds variance, heavy favourite etc that would be very helpful. Thank you.
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wearthefoxhat
Posts: 3205
Joined: Sun Feb 18, 2018 9:55 am

peterb1129 wrote:
Mon Apr 22, 2019 10:01 pm
Hi All,

I'm new to Bet Angel and trading, however I have been watching videos on trading for a few weeks now. I do like the Dutching tool on Bet Angel and would like to pursue this as my main strategy. I did my first Dutching trade today (with a very small stake till I am more comfortable with the whole process) on a correct football score market which came in. I haven't tried horse racing yet, as I'm not to familiar with horse racing in general. If anyone could please pass me any pointers in terms of what they look for in the race cards e.g, small/large number of runners, wide variety of odds, not a great deal in odds variance, heavy favourite etc that would be very helpful. Thank you.

Hi, Welcome.

The dutching software was one of the main reasons I subbed with Bet Angel, and then found a whole new world of trading along the way. (gives options)

With dutching, I find the best approach for me, is to find a weak favourite/selection and then look for strengths in some of the other runners. I'd then dutch to fixed stake (equivalent to 1-2% of bank). The software is constantly re-calculating the odds and adjusting the amount, so improves the chances of a complete stake match.

My better results are in Handicaps and it's possible to eliminate a fair few giving a nucleus of remaining selections to dutch. I wouldn't just blindly dutch the first 3 or 4 in the market, it's tempting, but the book% v risk-reward is small. I'd aim for a 75% minimum return on the fixed stake for a race. ie: £10 = +£7.50 minimum

Okay, so here's where I'll get my arse handed to me.

Ling455.PNG

A typical All weather handicap. Weloof; 5/2 betting forecast favourite. Others' have more competitive RPR and Topspeed ratings and the RTF% (trainer form) John Butler is 35% (I prefer 50%+)

I would now form an opinion of runners to dutch (back). Strong RPR/Topspeed with a good RTF% Also a good course jockey booking would be important for me. The Racing Post has free info by using the tab card and scrolling down to statistics. On the flat, the draw can be a big influence (sprint distances 5f,6f,7f mainly). Just focussing on the better drawn types can a big factor.

jockey.PNG

If Weloof does win, (or another unconsidered horse) then the risk is only 1%-2% of the bank. Horse racing has many variables to it and there's a vast amount of info that is useless/useful in the same breath. Having said that, football can be like that a times too. :D
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peterb1129
Posts: 25
Joined: Sat Dec 24, 2016 4:56 pm

Hi,

Thank you for your reply it’s greatly appreciated and very useful. As I am a complete novice to horse racing/trading would you say the most useful info on race cards/meetings is on the racing post tab you suggested? Or is there better info to be had else where? Do you ever get put off by the number of horses in a race? For example 4 is to small and 13 is to large?

Regards,
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wearthefoxhat
Posts: 3205
Joined: Sun Feb 18, 2018 9:55 am

peterb1129 wrote:
Tue Apr 23, 2019 1:59 pm
Hi,

Thank you for your reply it’s greatly appreciated and very useful. As I am a complete novice to horse racing/trading would you say the most useful info on race cards/meetings is on the racing post tab you suggested? Or is there better info to be had else where? Do you ever get put off by the number of horses in a race? For example 4 is to small and 13 is to large?

Regards,
The racing post cards tab and other info is free to use, there are other very good websites (free) too. Attheraces, Timeform, SportingLife a few to mention. If you're new to horse racing it can be a little overwhelming, as a starting point Racing Post will give you most of what you need.

The number of runners can be subjective. Handicaps by their very nature should always be competitive, although surprisingly, some are not due to the way the handicapper has to apply the rules of giving a penalty to a winner that can't be assessed until for a few days. (In France they assess them immediately with a new mark)

The number of runners shouldn't put anyone off, the over-round, the book %, should be less as the runners are less, the bigger the field, the higher the figure. A rule of thumb could be to focus on a maximum of 12 runners.

I find the better Non-Handicaps are bossed by the bigger stables. ie: Class 4/3/2/1 races. Sometimes a horse can be overhyped, the market is usually a fair guide for some of those.
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peterb1129
Posts: 25
Joined: Sat Dec 24, 2016 4:56 pm

Hi,

Is there a way where you can Dutch horses E/W using Bet Angel? If you could this would significantly lower the risk. Do you subscribe to the Racing Post for your info to aid your selections when dutching? I’m struggling to find the info that will help me be selective about my selections?

Thank you.
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wearthefoxhat
Posts: 3205
Joined: Sun Feb 18, 2018 9:55 am

peterb1129 wrote:
Thu Apr 25, 2019 6:52 pm
Hi,

Is there a way where you can Dutch horses E/W using Bet Angel? If you could this would significantly lower the risk. Do you subscribe to the Racing Post for your info to aid your selections when dutching? I’m struggling to find the info that will help me be selective about my selections?

Thank you.
Not too sure E/W dutching bit.

Depends what you mean by selectivity. Handicaps are by their nature competitive, the lower class ones, 5&6 have more unreliable types that seem to take their turn in winning races. So maybe, focus on the higher class handicaps 1to4, with a maximum of 12 runners. Would be a little easier to eliminate a few and then the remainder can be assessed by RPR/Topspeed/RTF% good course jockey...giving you 3/4 selections to dutch.
kingsmark
Posts: 11
Joined: Tue Nov 22, 2016 6:26 pm

peterb1129 wrote:
Mon Apr 22, 2019 10:01 pm
Hi All,

I'm new to Bet Angel and trading, however I have been watching videos on trading for a few weeks now. I do like the Dutching tool on Bet Angel and would like to pursue this as my main strategy.
How are you getting on with dutching and selections?
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