The details of why horses steam or drift
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SigmaDraconis
- Posts: 20
- Joined: Sun Mar 06, 2016 9:58 am
I know some reasons why certain horses steam while others drift. But I want to know as much about that as possible. If I can get that right 4 times out of 5, horse trading will be a breeze. Where can I learn every minute detail of what causes horses to steam or drift?
Last edited by SigmaDraconis on Mon Jul 29, 2019 9:31 am, edited 1 time in total.
- WeatherSigmaDraconis wrote: ↑Mon Jul 29, 2019 9:09 amI know some reasons why certain horses drift while others drift. But I want to know as much about that as possible. If I can get that right 4 times out of 5, horse trading will be a breeze. Where can I learn every minute detail of what causes horses to steam or drift?
- Injury
- Course conditions
- Not fancied by punters
- Mad Bomber or someone else with allot of money fancies a punt
- Horse playing up
- Bookies laying off large bets
- Change of jockey
That's a bit of a naive approach if you don't mind me saying, it could potentially drive you insane if you go looking for reasons behind every movement and start basing your entries on such opinion instead of trading what you see happening in front of your eyes. You can't know every reason behind price movements even if you wanted to. The market doesn't even need any real reason to move the prices around, it will move the prices because it can.
+1Kai wrote: ↑Mon Jul 29, 2019 10:04 amThat's a bit of a naive approach if you don't mind me saying, it could potentially drive you insane if you go looking for reasons behind every movement and start basing your entries on such opinion instead of trading what you see happening in front of your eyes. You can't know every reason behind price movements even if you wanted to. The market doesn't even need any real reason to move the prices around, it will move the prices because it can.
The number of reasons why a horse steams is equal to the number of people who backed it.
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ShaunWhite
- Posts: 9731
- Joined: Sat Sep 03, 2016 3:42 am
You don't need 4 out of 5. You can make money with 2½ out of 5 or even 1 out of 5 if you control your upside and downside sufficiently.
Even if you did compile a list of positive and negative indicators, you'd then need to apply a relative weighting to each one. eg The ground firming up might be a good thing, but is that enough to balance a change of jockey and the horse acting up in the parade ring, but the trainer had 3 prior winners so the crowd are only looking at that. And the factors are different again on a grade 1 horse vs one that's first time out.
With your level of knowledge you might be better off just concentrating on one or two of the more obvious reasons, try this -> https://youtu.be/U8rKB_6F9gM.
Even if you did compile a list of positive and negative indicators, you'd then need to apply a relative weighting to each one. eg The ground firming up might be a good thing, but is that enough to balance a change of jockey and the horse acting up in the parade ring, but the trainer had 3 prior winners so the crowd are only looking at that. And the factors are different again on a grade 1 horse vs one that's first time out.
With your level of knowledge you might be better off just concentrating on one or two of the more obvious reasons, try this -> https://youtu.be/U8rKB_6F9gM.