Hi,
I'm trying to get to grips with some of the fundamentals of these markets. One thing I can't seem to find a good description of is reduction factors, and how they affect the odds you actually receive on a bet when a runner is withdrawn.
So let's go through a specific example :
Imagine I bet £1 on fastboy to win at odds of 4.0, subsequently another horse in the race, coughingdonkey pulls out. The horse has a reduction factor of 9.69.
What happens to the odds on my bet? (In case it isn't clear, I'm interested in how betfair handles this, not bookies in this example)
Follow-ups:
1. Does this example make sense in the context of reduction factors (unclear if this is exactly an applicable example - if not, I'd appreciate another example)
2. Are back and lay bets treated in the same way?
3. Are the bets on the withdrawn runner totally cancelled?
Thanks for your help! I'm trying to dive in to these markets, but I don't have much interest in trading a market where I don't understand the rules of the game!
Reduction Factors
For a standard win market:
(Decimal odds / 100) x reduction factor of non-runner = amount to reduce original price by
Subtract this amount from the original price to calculate the new price.
Your example backer:
- You matched a back bet on 'Champion' for £1 @ 4.0
- Your liability is £1.
- Coughing Donkey (in the same race is now withdrawn with a reduction factor of 9.69%
(4.0 / 100 ) x 9.69 = 0.39 (this gives the amount to be reduced from the original price)
4.0 - 0.39 = 3.61 (this is the new price that you will be paid out if the horse wins.)
Your new possible profit will be £2.61 (instead of £3.00 originally)
Your example layer:
- You matched a lay bet on Champion for £1 @ 4.0
- Your liability is £3.
- Coughing Donkey in the same race is now withdrawn with a reduction factor of 9.69%
(4.0 / 100 ) x 9.69 = 0.39 (this gives the amount to be reduced from the original price)
4.0 - 0.39 = 3.61 (this is the new price to calculate your liability.)
Your liability is reduced to £2.61(instead of £3 originally).
If the RF is less than 2.5% no deduction made
PS In a standard win market if your horse is withdrawn stake is returned. (unlike an antepost market)
(Decimal odds / 100) x reduction factor of non-runner = amount to reduce original price by
Subtract this amount from the original price to calculate the new price.
Your example backer:
- You matched a back bet on 'Champion' for £1 @ 4.0
- Your liability is £1.
- Coughing Donkey (in the same race is now withdrawn with a reduction factor of 9.69%
(4.0 / 100 ) x 9.69 = 0.39 (this gives the amount to be reduced from the original price)
4.0 - 0.39 = 3.61 (this is the new price that you will be paid out if the horse wins.)
Your new possible profit will be £2.61 (instead of £3.00 originally)
Your example layer:
- You matched a lay bet on Champion for £1 @ 4.0
- Your liability is £3.
- Coughing Donkey in the same race is now withdrawn with a reduction factor of 9.69%
(4.0 / 100 ) x 9.69 = 0.39 (this gives the amount to be reduced from the original price)
4.0 - 0.39 = 3.61 (this is the new price to calculate your liability.)
Your liability is reduced to £2.61(instead of £3 originally).
If the RF is less than 2.5% no deduction made
PS In a standard win market if your horse is withdrawn stake is returned. (unlike an antepost market)
-
MacrcoPolo
- Posts: 9
- Joined: Sat Mar 21, 2020 11:56 am
This is superb, thank you very much Jukebox. How does this work in place markets?