BFSP STATS - SP1; SP2 and SP2

[rencoetz]

Hi All

I have just completed my betfair stats with regards to horse racing and have attached the high level summary from a pivot table I did from the data I have from 2016 - 2019

Any thoughts and comments will be appreciated.

I have the following data points / stats from my sheet of 460 000 odd entry points from 2016 - 2019. The summary doesn't include Betfair commissions blindly backing
DATE
Country
Track
Going
Type
Distance
Class
Time
Stall
Horse
OR
Age
Pace
Weight
Jockey
Trainer
SP Fav
Industry SP
Betfair SP
BF Win Return

I am willing to share any findings and hoping I can build a winning strategy on this thread

I understand past results / hindsight is an exact science and no indication of how future results will look like ; but it is a step closer to understand a promising winning strategy

IE I have never watched a horse race in my life ( so I am going of stats alone ) and looking to build a strategy from the green lumber fallacy if possible.

Looking forward to any insight as to what the data means and hopefully this means something to somebody

[rencoetz]

Below is blindly backing all Irish horses 2016 - 2019 - BFSP 28 <= x <= 35

1300Units - 20% ROI over 6500bets

[rencoetz]

[rencoetz]

[Dallas]

You might find this video from Peter interesting
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=R5YyGGUxZXM

[Atho55]

In the video, when Lay bet is mentioned as being profitable, is this Lay to a Liability?

[sa7med]

Have a look at Adrianmassey. Lots of filters end up with some years and thousands of bets in the green, but reverts in other years.

[ShaunWhite]

From your charts, the first two years were flat, the next two years were positive, where the next two years go is anyone's guess.

Regarding analysis in general, I think there's a little too much emphasis on observing an effect and trading that, rather than finding the cause. If you can find the cause then you can observe that, and trade whatever it affects. If you're trading the effect (something like over/under priced selections or a tendency for a move in a certain direction) you're always chasing shadows. You also can't tell if a phenomenon is still happening as you don't know what was causing it. If the cause is still there then the effect will return, if not, it won't.

I'm not saying any of that is easy, but as much as all markets are a reaction to supply and demand, they're also bound by the fundamentals of cause and effect. To simplify all of that, I seem to remember Peter on YT saying that he always likes to know why something is happening.

[ruthlessimon]

To simplify all of that, I seem to remember Peter on YT saying that he always likes to know why something is happening.

Why is the speed of light 300,000 km/s?

What's interesting though, we can test the speed of light by looking at lasers OR using eclipses & orbits. Can we do that with this bsp thing (i.e. an uncorrelated test); I don't think we can, & that's why I wouldn't trade it. I'd need to see 28 <= x <= 35 be a problem/benefit in many places

[Jukebox]

Why is the speed of light 300,000 km/s?

Only in a vacuum and certainly not going the final furlong at Aintree.

[Dallas]

In the video, when Lay bet is mentioned as being profitable, is this Lay to a Liability?

I'd have to rewatch it again to be sure but from memory I'm certain it was

[rencoetz]

Hi Dallas

I want to bet on a favorite horse in a race where the difference between SP 1 and SP 2 is more than 0.1 ; so false favs are not triggered
SP 1 = 2.3 ; SP2 = 2.6 would trigger bet.

Can you please see if my file below is correct - I ma not so sure if this can also be done with relative odds condition ?
thanks

[rencoetz]

or will this do the trick ?

[rencoetz]

Is there anybiody who can assist me with the automation ? as above ?

[ShaunWhite]

or will this do the trick ?

The second version looks ok, it's nice and simple rather than using the unnecessary stored values.
Try it in Practice Mode first