Peter recently was talking about how the efficiency of the market deems that any completely unimaginative strategy would go through periods of performing well and returning a profit due to the underlying behaviour and characteristics of the market at favourable times.
The attached graph he used to demonstrate what he meant by showing the oscillations between positive and negative values when looking at that underlying market behaviour. The fact the graph looks cyclical in nature I just wondered what peoples thoughts towards that could be, with regards to explaining the fundamental analysis behind the market shifts.
He spoke briefly about looking at 600 coin tosses you would move closer to 50/50 the greater the number of flips, but if only looking at a short term snippet, the patterns of results could be thrown out for no reason other than chance. Is that what people would be inclined towards thinking when looking at a shorter period of times results, I think he said it was about a weeks worth of races?
Just interested what people thought, or if there were any theories as to why the market shifts between favouring the back and lay side.
W