Trading Horse racing : Why do I keep going inplay?

The sport of kings.
jamesg46
Posts: 1006
Joined: Sat Jul 30, 2016 1:05 pm

Mon Jun 29, 2020 2:48 pm

to75ne wrote:
Mon Jun 29, 2020 2:30 pm
jamesg46 wrote:
Mon Jun 29, 2020 1:46 pm


I wouldn't suggest anyone to go on and lose 20 or 30k, I had a difference of opinion to you and thought it might be worth talking about. Who knows, you could be completely right but sharing some thoughts, especially when it won't cost a thing to either think about or try cant hurt anybody.
surely it is incumbent on everyone who posts on these forums not to encourage anybody intentionally or otherwise to get into serious debt, or further serious debt, especially when the evidence strongly suggests that they are not capable of trading effectively.

we all need to be careful of what we say to people who are obviously not cut out for this game.


once again his problem is emotional and no amount of practice mode will help with an emotional problem.
Are you serious? I didn't encourage anything other than practice mode and structure, one being free and the other being thought.

To just conclude that emotion cant be overcome, simply just because emotional people aren't capable isn't for me... many people have come through and managed to overcome their emotions. Maybe this is an area to explore for this person, I don't know, but with your psychological assessment, the person is already done and dusted. Maybe the standard reply should just be just to give up.

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eightbo
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Mon Jun 29, 2020 2:49 pm

trb10 wrote:
Sun Jun 28, 2020 3:29 pm
I have literally lost thousands of pounds trying to crack pre race trading. I see a red, think oh I'll take it in play and catch up and BOOM the horse wins. I've done it more times than I care to remember so I know the likelihood I'll bust out but still I do it and I don't get why. I've thought and thought about it but still I lay a horse in the hope of easy money and I end up bust, we're talking 10k here.

I did casino while racing was off and joined a site to learn that and literally stick to the instructions by the letter. I could be £20 on an offer but I can walk away from that quite easily and have never once done "just another spin" and have earned over 2k since March. So I have the mindset for that so don't understand why I don't with racing.

Maybe I should just give up.......
hi bro. used to happen to me a lot. solution for me was a 2-step action plan:
1. identifying my risk tolerance (pain threshold) through journalling — this is the level where emotional interference kicks in and you are no longer able to take the loss. For me that was somewhere around 2-3% of my capital, however you may have a certain -£x amount as well. Depends on psychological makeup
2. habitualising using lower stakes so that I would not trigger that emotional interference. I'm risking 0-1% of my capital per market now which stays comfortably within my risk tolerance and allows for some slippage.

I also later found that I had a % daily drawdown risk tolerance and so like with the staking I identified + habitualised ceasing trading when I'd lost -y% of my core capital on the day, again with some headroom for mistakes or a rough spike against me.

ultimately this behaviour signals that you are likely too attached to outcome so you want to work on divorcing yourself from P&L where you can.
I heard of a guy called John "rambo" moulton which a few oldies may remember from the Bulls and Bears Sydney futures exchange documentary. The guy daytrades and only checks his statements 12 times a year now and has also gone a stretch of 9 months not checking P&L and he mentions this in another interview in reference to divorcing yourself from P&L so you can focus on what the market is doing properly. I check P&L once at the end of each week right now so after about half way through Monday I've already lost track of where I am and there's literally no information available for my brain to worry about the P&L — only the intramarket P&L hedge figure which I've made sure is within my risk tolerance so I'm able to crystallise the loss each time knowing its just a drop in the bucket @ 0-1% risk. I have found that has also helped in accepting losses because I'm forced to think of the 1week picture now rather than the daily. John is a classic overtrader and still has to keep it in check today even with P&L hid and pushing millions in size.

Ultimately you want to really understand and BELIEVE that safely progressing your equity over time is better than the alternative of pushing around the bigger size that you feel inclined to use which creates faster progress but it is an ILLUSION because that is temporary given you are risking situations like you mention (unable to hedge loss → freeze → IP → unacceptably and unintentional big hit to capital).

Remember that losses are necessary expenses of doing business (without risking something we can't generate a profit) so as such they are unavoidable. Your task as a trader is to find a way of operating such that you're able to consistently manage all your expenses so that any edge you have is allowed to play out to it's full potential without emotional interference (you will never succeed long-term if you keep getting in your own way)

best of luck mate

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eightbo
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Location: Czech Republic

Mon Jun 29, 2020 2:57 pm

ShaunWhite wrote:
Sun Jun 28, 2020 7:39 pm
I think a big issue is that people want to be the next Peter without realising there's a whole world of trading outside of trading the favourite on pre-race horse market (I know he does way more than that, but that's what people latch onto because he makes it look so effortless) I found success as soon as I stopped doing what he does. The fav on pre race horses must be the toughest most competitive market there is, it's like the yellow snow of the trading world.
peter started out being extremely risk averse and afraid to take trades so imo his insights are not all that valuable for the overly aggressively inclined such as myself. i suggest to others to find alternative sources of information especially pertaining to psychology if they are looking for that sort of thing and know they lean towards the aggressive side of the spectrum

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to75ne
Posts: 2039
Joined: Wed Apr 22, 2009 5:37 pm

Mon Jun 29, 2020 3:03 pm

jamesg46 wrote:
Mon Jun 29, 2020 2:48 pm
to75ne wrote:
Mon Jun 29, 2020 2:30 pm
jamesg46 wrote:
Mon Jun 29, 2020 1:46 pm


I wouldn't suggest anyone to go on and lose 20 or 30k, I had a difference of opinion to you and thought it might be worth talking about. Who knows, you could be completely right but sharing some thoughts, especially when it won't cost a thing to either think about or try cant hurt anybody.
surely it is incumbent on everyone who posts on these forums not to encourage anybody intentionally or otherwise to get into serious debt, or further serious debt, especially when the evidence strongly suggests that they are not capable of trading effectively.

we all need to be careful of what we say to people who are obviously not cut out for this game.


once again his problem is emotional and no amount of practice mode will help with an emotional problem.
Are you serious? I didn't encourage anything other than practice mode and structure, one being free and the other being thought.

To just conclude that emotion cant be overcome, simply just because emotional people aren't capable isn't for me... many people have come through and managed to overcome their emotions. Maybe this is an area to explore for this person, I don't know, but with your psychological assessment, the person is already done and dusted. Maybe the standard reply should just be just to give up.
i dont mean emotion or emotional problem as in touchy-feely, in touch with your female side, disgust, affection, temper tantrums, caring and sharing bollocks, i mean as part of your basic make up, part of your instincts, laid down by millions of years of evolution that were responsible for keeping you alive for millions of years. deeply in-bedded in your unconscious brian.

they worked perfectly well when we needed to protect our lives and assets (food, shelter, water) from sabre tooth tigers and other tribes of humans, but in the modern world can be a hindrance as in trading amongst other things.

jamesg46
Posts: 1006
Joined: Sat Jul 30, 2016 1:05 pm

Mon Jun 29, 2020 3:40 pm

to75ne wrote:
Mon Jun 29, 2020 3:03 pm
jamesg46 wrote:
Mon Jun 29, 2020 2:48 pm
to75ne wrote:
Mon Jun 29, 2020 2:30 pm


surely it is incumbent on everyone who posts on these forums not to encourage anybody intentionally or otherwise to get into serious debt, or further serious debt, especially when the evidence strongly suggests that they are not capable of trading effectively.

we all need to be careful of what we say to people who are obviously not cut out for this game.


once again his problem is emotional and no amount of practice mode will help with an emotional problem.
Are you serious? I didn't encourage anything other than practice mode and structure, one being free and the other being thought.

To just conclude that emotion cant be overcome, simply just because emotional people aren't capable isn't for me... many people have come through and managed to overcome their emotions. Maybe this is an area to explore for this person, I don't know, but with your psychological assessment, the person is already done and dusted. Maybe the standard reply should just be just to give up.
i dont mean emotion or emotional problem as in touchy-feely, in touch with your female side, disgust, affection, temper tantrums, caring and sharing bollocks, i mean as part of your basic make up, part of your instincts, laid down by millions of years of evolution that were responsible for keeping you alive for millions of years. deeply in-bedded in your unconscious brian.

they worked perfectly well when we needed to protect our lives and assets (food, shelter, water) from sabre tooth tigers and other tribes of humans, but in the modern world can be a hindrance as in trading amongst other things.
And yet there is people who are very succesful and overcome this through understanding.

Anyway, all the best to the OP, we have both offered an opinion and some food for thought, as have others & I hope they go away finding something of use.

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eightbo
Posts: 1513
Joined: Sun May 17, 2015 8:19 pm
Location: Czech Republic

Mon Jun 29, 2020 3:54 pm

also this might help you
i forgot to mention i went through a transition phase after knowing what to do and why, when i was still training skills (habits) of taking all losses tight and keeping staking size to 0-1% risk of capital, i would still make mistakes leading to occasional big red numbers pre-race which imo is the precursor to going in play unintentionally. But if you can get it through your head that although hedging that big loss pre-race is extremely dicomforting, it's the lesser of two evils when compared to risking a blowup. Sort of like if you're driving along in an armored vehicle through a warzone with militants on both sides, you see they've got an rpg on the left side but there kind of far away, whereas on the right side you can tell those guys only have guns and grenades but they're much closer. So clearly the play is to take the guaranteed nade and bullets rather than risk dying to the RPG.

The problem in trading is that when you blow up, you can reload your account and people psychologically view that as a fresh start when really it's not a fresh start, what you are doing is not working, and if you continue to make decisions in the same way (or behave in a way that leads to amygdala hijack and having the oldschool part of the brain make decisions for you), you're always gonna take another RPG...

If you decide to keep at it, I would strongly suggest coming back with a "one life" perspective and begin making decisions catered around the concept of survival first and foremost until you have that on lock. If your journey pans out anything like mine you'll find yourself having to eat a lot of grenades along the way as you work on improving your edge but so long as you continue to dodge the rocket that buys you time to continue adjusting until you get it right. Get it right on smaller size first then when you have a track record of performing, bump up your size, create another track record etc. etc. and loop that process. This approach helps on a lot of levels particularly with confidence in your ability (progressive momentum) as well as NOT having that psychological setback which comes with blowing up the account (that's those "Maybe I should just give up..." thoughts like you have in your 1st post). I found that self-doubt or any other self-defeating thoughts in the back of your mind during your next few trading sessions after a blowup can create a sort of reverb effect in your mental space and if you couple that with a high-pressure enviornment (find yourself facing another big loss) that can greatly reduce the probability you will be able to hedge that loss. Compare that with naturally occurring POSITIVE thoughts off the back of a proven track record and suddenly doing the right thing is not so hard anymore. Need to cultivate that awareness of what's going on in your mental space and look after it as much as possible because your ability to perform can be toxically polluted or substantially benefited by what's going on there. You just have to look at high-level performance in sports to know what I'm talking about.

Korattt
Posts: 1525
Joined: Mon Dec 21, 2015 6:46 pm

Mon Jun 29, 2020 5:55 pm

OP,

With respect I feel that your struggling with reading what happens leading up to the off in a particular market, I’m guessing that you’re guessing what will happen without relying on any particular indicator.

With me I use certain charting settings within Bet Angel to identify XYZ & then I wait for something to appear, only through recording HOURS & HOURS of markets have I been able to configure settings that I’m able to understand in my own way which help me out with reading certain situations in markets, even then it doesn’t conform to every market, only certain ones.. it gives me a little window of opportunity, and if I see it I jump on it, have a read on PW’s take on prospect theory, that helped me out anyway.

What I’m trying to say is use the software, really use it, try things, be curious, you’ll never know what you may find which could & should help you out..

GL

Emmson
Posts: 1387
Joined: Mon Feb 29, 2016 6:47 pm

Mon Jun 29, 2020 6:15 pm

Read some thoughts from JollyGreen

viewtopic.php?f=2&t=8319&p=81034#p81034

alexmr2
Posts: 42
Joined: Wed Sep 26, 2018 12:32 am
Location: Blackpool

Sun Jul 05, 2020 7:51 pm

We've all been there and burned. You have to tell yourself that you will never make money by taking trades inplay. To sort yourself out I suggest not using more than £100 live bank until you can start to build it up from there up. You shouldn't be risking more than a few quid per trade max. Expect to lose your bank or a chunk of it at least 100 times before you turn your trading around

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