Dutching

The sport of kings.
Post Reply
cookie1892
Posts: 8
Joined: Tue Jun 04, 2013 11:20 am

Sorry if this is not the right forum

I am having a decent amount of success using dutching to back all but one runner in races. (400 profit yesterday)

The runner i don't back is generally around the 20-25 odds mark and as i'm sure your all aware sometimes this one will win and wipe out my profit and bank for the day

My question is has anyone created a rules file that can help me negate this risk?

i was thinking along the lines of

If matched bets on horse in play = 0
green out all for 0

or

If matched bets = 0
and back price is lower than 3
green out all for 0


I understand i may need a large bank to do this and it may only occur once or twice a day but it would certainly help
Jukebox
Posts: 1576
Joined: Thu Sep 06, 2012 8:07 pm

Attempting to green out multiple dutched runners in running is inevitably going to end in a lot of pain and unmatched bets on winners.
If you are currently having success by dutching everything bar your chosen 'loser' you will increase your bottom line by simply laying your chosen loser as you won't have to also to cover the spread on almost the whole field.
User avatar
jimibt
Posts: 3641
Joined: Mon Nov 30, 2015 6:42 pm
Location: Narnia

can i ask a question about the staking on this dutching strategy. given that you are probably dutching 85%+ of the book, are you placing a straight stake across each race, or are you putting the accumulated winnings from previous races onto each subsequent race (.. and hopefully you're not using a martingale approach - :D).

the reason I ask is because i used to have a similar strategy and it entailed using a fairly complex staking option in order to achieve decent returns on high book% dutching. for me, it ended in tears as i was in reality using a disguised recovery approach (it was called *pro-staking* or some such fancy name). older, wiser and still shrugging that off from many years back, i'm always alerted when i read about dutching to high book%... that said, if your selection criteria (for runners and races) is well backtested, then i think you should be able to roll with the losers, as long as staking is of a non recovery variety.
Last edited by jimibt on Wed Jul 08, 2020 9:52 am, edited 1 time in total.
cookie1892
Posts: 8
Joined: Tue Jun 04, 2013 11:20 am

oh i never thought of that

i might try that today - cheers
cookie1892
Posts: 8
Joined: Tue Jun 04, 2013 11:20 am

jimibt wrote:
Wed Jul 08, 2020 9:51 am
can i ask a question about the staking on this dutching strategy. given that you are probably dutching 85%+ of the book, are you placing a straight stake across each race, or are you putting the accumulated winnings from previous races onto each subsequent race (.. and hopefully you're not using a martingale approach - :D).

the reason I ask is because i used to have a similar strategy and it entailed using a fairly complex staking option in order to achieve decent returns on high book% dutching. for me, it ended in tears as i was in reality using a disguised recovery approach (it was called *pro-staking* or some such fancy name). older, wiser and still shrugging that off from many years back, i'm always alerted when i read about dutching to high book%... that said, if your selection criteria (for runners and races) is well backtested, then i think you should be able to roll with the losers, as long as staking is of a non recovery variety.
back at the current lay price with a stake of £400 for a 5% margin

it generally works out at £20 per race
User avatar
jimibt
Posts: 3641
Joined: Mon Nov 30, 2015 6:42 pm
Location: Narnia

cookie1892 wrote:
Wed Jul 08, 2020 10:02 am
jimibt wrote:
Wed Jul 08, 2020 9:51 am
can i ask a question about the staking on this dutching strategy. given that you are probably dutching 85%+ of the book, are you placing a straight stake across each race, or are you putting the accumulated winnings from previous races onto each subsequent race (.. and hopefully you're not using a martingale approach - :D).

the reason I ask is because i used to have a similar strategy and it entailed using a fairly complex staking option in order to achieve decent returns on high book% dutching. for me, it ended in tears as i was in reality using a disguised recovery approach (it was called *pro-staking* or some such fancy name). older, wiser and still shrugging that off from many years back, i'm always alerted when i read about dutching to high book%... that said, if your selection criteria (for runners and races) is well backtested, then i think you should be able to roll with the losers, as long as staking is of a non recovery variety.
back at the current lay price with a stake of £400 for a 5% margin

it generally works out at £20 per race
gotcha -phew. had a moment of panic as i reviewed my own folly from the past :D. 5% is good if it's a steady return.

i can understand the concern for when the outlier runner romps home and displaces the 20 odd good races. however, IF the odds for that runner are roughly 25.00, then maybe a little backtesting would help refine the race selections to help mitigate. that said, I'm sure you've done all of this but you could easily be playing against the prevailing randomness of the system and might always get caught by that 25.00 odds runner every few days.

however, moving with what you have, i'd agree that jukebox's suggestion of simply laying the outlier is a far more efficient approach.
cookie1892
Posts: 8
Joined: Tue Jun 04, 2013 11:20 am

jimibt wrote:
Wed Jul 08, 2020 10:17 am
cookie1892 wrote:
Wed Jul 08, 2020 10:02 am
jimibt wrote:
Wed Jul 08, 2020 9:51 am
can i ask a question about the staking on this dutching strategy. given that you are probably dutching 85%+ of the book, are you placing a straight stake across each race, or are you putting the accumulated winnings from previous races onto each subsequent race (.. and hopefully you're not using a martingale approach - :D).

the reason I ask is because i used to have a similar strategy and it entailed using a fairly complex staking option in order to achieve decent returns on high book% dutching. for me, it ended in tears as i was in reality using a disguised recovery approach (it was called *pro-staking* or some such fancy name). older, wiser and still shrugging that off from many years back, i'm always alerted when i read about dutching to high book%... that said, if your selection criteria (for runners and races) is well backtested, then i think you should be able to roll with the losers, as long as staking is of a non recovery variety.
back at the current lay price with a stake of £400 for a 5% margin

it generally works out at £20 per race
gotcha -phew. had a moment of panic as i reviewed my own folly from the past :D. 5% is good if it's a steady return.

i can understand the concern for when the outlier runner romps home and displaces the 20 odd good races. however, IF the odds for that runner are roughly 25.00, then maybe a little backtesting would help refine the race selections to help mitigate. that said, I'm sure you've done all of this but you could easily be playing against the prevailing randomness of the system and might always get caught by that 25.00 odds runner every few days.

however, moving with what you have, i'd agree that jukebox's suggestion of simply laying the outlier is a far more efficient approach.
yes i am going to try that today

there's times where i am exposed if a runner further up the market plunges as well and i'm forced to go in play and that can end in disaster as well
User avatar
jimibt
Posts: 3641
Joined: Mon Nov 30, 2015 6:42 pm
Location: Narnia

cookie1892 wrote:
Wed Jul 08, 2020 11:08 am
... there's times where i am exposed if a runner further up the market plunges as well and i'm forced to go in play and that can end in disaster as well
yes, that is one to be tamed -i.e. mitigating that type of thing can be impossible inside the timeframe. however, i'm sure you've seen it induce mild panic when it is inplay and it starts to unwind against you...
User avatar
decomez6
Posts: 651
Joined: Mon Oct 07, 2019 5:26 pm

jimibt wrote:
Wed Jul 08, 2020 11:23 am
cookie1892 wrote:
Wed Jul 08, 2020 11:08 am
... there's times where i am exposed if a runner further up the market plunges as well and i'm forced to go in play and that can end in disaster as well
yes, that is one to be tamed -i.e. mitigating that type of thing can be impossible inside the timeframe. however, i'm sure you've seen it induce mild panic when it is inplay and it starts to unwind against you...
with a market research tool ,i think its easier to pick up your Dobbs (steamers and drifters). then i would use the bookmaker or the dutching tool on bet angel ,with the margin maker (MAGIC) on target of £20 profit .then wait for the right moment to jump in. if you time it well you will need less than £400 . that way minimise exposure.
is that an option jimibt.or works out the same way?
Post Reply

Return to “Trading Horse racing”