Each way arbitrage

The sport of kings.
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rik
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Location: London

I was thinking since bookmakers offer the same line on win and each way market there is opportunity for arbitrage as on betfair line can differ significantly.
So I was testing on a race, going by market rules payout should be 1/5 first 3 runners both for betfair and bookmaker.
Horse odds 12 on bookmaker placed, so win bet lost -1 whereas place bet 11*0.2+1 payed out 3.20 for profit of 1.20 seems correct.
However Betfair lay bet £2 odds 11 lost -3. Shouldnt it be -1 as half the bet wins £1 and other half loses £2 as paying out place odds of 3?
Is there a difference in how betfair calculates the each way market compared to bookmakers? If someone could explain how the -3 here is calculated please dont have experience with each way thanks.
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ShaunWhite
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Are you sure you're not comparing the bookies EW prices with the Betfair Place prices? Place prices obv don't have half your stake riding on the win.
rik
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yes im sure, why does the £2 eachway lay bet odds 11 that placed but didnt win result in a loss of 3 instead of 1 is basically my question, what is the calculation for that, thanks.
TraderFred
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Joined: Wed Sep 26, 2018 7:55 am

I’ve never understood the each way markets on betfair.

When you say odds of 11, does that mean 11-1 bookmakers, 12 betfair ?

Also, you say you did £1 e/w with the bookies, and £2 e/w on betfair. Nothing to do with that is it ?
TraderFred
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Sorry, just seen your screenshot. Odds of 11 on bf.

I dont understand that at all to be honest. I’d have thought you should be -1 too. +1 for the lay of the win bet, -2 for the lay of the place bit.

I don’t get those each way markets though, not sure how they work.
rik
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Location: London

TraderFred wrote:
Mon Jul 13, 2020 3:21 pm
I’ve never understood the each way markets on betfair.

When you say odds of 11, does that mean 11-1 bookmakers, 12 betfair ?

Also, you say you did £1 e/w with the bookies, and £2 e/w on betfair. Nothing to do with that is it ?
yes placed £1 eachway at bookmaker which means £2 total stake, £1 on win and £1 on place at 1/5 odds, decimal odds 12. (returned 3.20 so win of 1.20 as expected)
so lay bet of 2 on betfair eachway should have offset that but didnt
TraderFred
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Joined: Wed Sep 26, 2018 7:55 am

I just noticed that when putting a bet in on betfair each way. £2 is the minimum stake. And if lose you lose £4.

So a £2 stake on betfair beach way markets is actually £4 ( 2 ew) and not £1 ew.

Is it something to do with that perhaps ? Though in that case you should be -2 and not -3 so still don’t get why it’s -3.
TraderFred
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Joined: Wed Sep 26, 2018 7:55 am

It looks as if you have been settled as £2 ew 10/1 1/4 odds.

Though 1/5 th odds 123 looks right for 11 runner hcap, unless there were a lot of non runners? It says on the market rules that place terms stay the same even with non runners, though RP only gives 1 non runner for that race, so I’m out of ideas.
TraderFred
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Joined: Wed Sep 26, 2018 7:55 am

I think that’s it actually. It was originally scheduled to be a 12 runner race, so 1/4 the 3 place terms.

It then got reduced to 11. So your bookie paid 11/1 at 1/5 the odds a place.

Betfair each way don’t change terms for non runner. So you laid 10/1 at 1/4 the odds.

And 2 ew at 10/1 1/4 odds would leave you -3.
asahenettleton
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Is there a way to learn the number of non-runners from Bet Angel?
Anbell
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asahenettleton wrote:
Sat Aug 15, 2020 3:13 pm
Is there a way to learn the number of non-runners from Bet Angel?
Depending on exactly what you want, this might help
viewtopic.php?t=20854
asahenettleton
Posts: 15
Joined: Sat Apr 04, 2020 6:30 pm

Thank you for the suggestion. My purposes are perhaps more modest in one sense. I am not interested in changes of the number of runners over time. I just want to know from Bet Angel the current EW terms, such as '1/5 odds, 3 places'. The existence of non-runners makes the current number of runners an unreliable guide to the terms.
asahenettleton
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Joined: Sat Apr 04, 2020 6:30 pm

I seem to have found an answer to my own question, though one that is only in BetAngel rather than Guardian-Excel. The saddle cloth column in BetAngel is the initial runner number.  BetAngel shows not simply those actually running (as Guardian-Excel does), but all of those originally running.  In a current example, the saddle cloths range from 1 to 14, but the runners listed in Excel are just 1 to 12, because (as it happens) runners 3 and 11 have dropped out
EachWayOddsfromSaddleCloth.png
.

It would be great if Guardian would start telling Excel the maximum saddle cloth number of the original runners. That would help one to know the EachWay terms, which can be non-obvious due to non-runners. (It might also be useful in place markets, though there it is easier to figure out the number of paying places even in exceptional circumstances such as 7 runners and 3 places due to a late dropout---just use the books.) It would require only one extra cell, not a whole column, and would require no help from BetFair.
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Dallas
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asahenettleton wrote:
Thu Dec 31, 2020 1:24 pm

It would be great if Guardian would start telling Excel the maximum saddle cloth number of the original runners. That would help one to know the EachWay terms, which can be non-obvious due to non-runners. (It might also be useful in place markets, though there it is easier to figure out the number of paying places even in exceptional circumstances such as 7 runners and 3 places due to a late dropout---just use the books.) It would require only one extra cell, not a whole column, and would require no help from BetFair.
Guardian has always been able to do this, you just need to enable it from the 'Excel' tab in your main settings

Saddle Cloth.JPG
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asahenettleton
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Joined: Sat Apr 04, 2020 6:30 pm

In response to my previous post (if I may), BetAngel support kindly informs me that one can display the saddle cloth in Excel using BetAngel settings.
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