Trading Horse racing : Trading What I see !?

The sport of kings.
goat68
Posts: 23
Joined: Tue Jun 30, 2020 3:53 pm

Fri Jul 31, 2020 7:04 pm

Euler wrote:
Fri Jul 31, 2020 6:48 pm
goat68 wrote:
Fri Jul 31, 2020 4:56 pm
Euler wrote:
Fri Jul 31, 2020 3:03 pm
You felt the market was going to go lower so you let that dictate how you traded. The market pushed you into making that trade. You have to detach yourself from that emotion.
no, I SAW that the market was going lower, so I traded that momentum, it wasn't "feel". However, it seems I am always late on the momentum, and it turns by the time I get in!

All 7 trades i've done this afternoon have been a loser!
You felt the market was headed lower. So you jumped on it.

When trading you have a setup and adhere to that. You look for the set-up and execute against that, rather than following the market.

The fact you lost all seven in a row is evidence that the market is telling you what to do and you are feeling guided by it.

If you trade at random with no emotion, your strike rate will hover around 50%. So seven losses in a row is a 0.50^7 or a 128 to one chance.

The market forced your hand and you were trading what you felt and that feeling was given to you by the market.
Thank you Euler, that's a really good explanation, you make a good point about my 7 losses in a row!
It also shows how missleading these videos are, or rather how you interpret them...
My "setup" I was using was as follows:
1. Check price/volume of top 4, look at supp/res, trends, and get a rough gauge, (like Pete does, I think) "this horse looks like it's drifting".
2. Then looking at ladder watch for order flow best I can, that supports my "gauge of momentum" in 1
3. When flow supports then enter trade, and place exit orders

I thought the whole theory here is that in that last 5mins or so before off, the on course or average Joe punters are driving the volume, so "more often than not" the order flow you perceive might continue more often than it doesn't...?

However, your great explanation is probably indicating I haven't got a clue!

goat68
Posts: 23
Joined: Tue Jun 30, 2020 3:53 pm

Fri Jul 31, 2020 7:13 pm

I'm feeling confused "feeling given to me by the market", which is "trading what the market is telling me", ie.trading what you see (in the market)?
So when both PeteW and CaanB say only "trade what you see", what do they mean?????

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Euler
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Fri Jul 31, 2020 7:33 pm

Judging by his most recent output I think Caan means click here to unlock the secret of eternal passive second income generation through betting. :lol:

But seriously...

Your role as a trader is to anticipate price action, not follow it. Does the set up you have to allow you to get in at a point where the market will move in your favour? Does the market confirm your setup? If you are just following the market you will get beaten up by it. Especially as a newbie.

Watch this video: -

https://youtu.be/wLaSp5a-LqU

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Tuco
Posts: 327
Joined: Wed Apr 15, 2009 1:43 pm

Fri Jul 31, 2020 9:10 pm

There are many ways to trade Mr. GOAT.

If your 7 losses in a row have meant you've lost 7 x £2 = £14, but on your 8th you win £1,000, then you really are the GOAT.

But that is also the point: Everyone loses and it doesn't necessarily mean you've done anything wrong nor mis-read the market. It all depends upon your trading style. Win big, lose small should always be the aim of the GOAT.

Stick at it. Good luck Sir!

goat68
Posts: 23
Joined: Tue Jun 30, 2020 3:53 pm

Fri Jul 31, 2020 9:13 pm

Tuco wrote:
Fri Jul 31, 2020 9:10 pm
There are many ways to trade Mr. GOAT.

If your 7 losses in a row have meant you've lost 7 x £2 = £14, but on your 8th you win £1,000, then you really are the GOAT.

But that is also the point: Everyone loses and it doesn't necessarily mean you've done anything wrong nor mis-read the market. It all depends upon your trading style. Win big, lose small should always be the aim of the GOAT.

Stick at it. Good luck Sir!
Thank you appreciate it

goat68
Posts: 23
Joined: Tue Jun 30, 2020 3:53 pm

Fri Jul 31, 2020 9:32 pm

Euler wrote:
Fri Jul 31, 2020 7:33 pm
Judging by his most recent output I think Caan means click here to unlock the secret of eternal passive second income generation through betting. :lol:

But seriously...

Your role as a trader is to anticipate price action, not follow it. Does the set up you have to allow you to get in at a point where the market will move in your favour? Does the market confirm your setup? If you are just following the market you will get beaten up by it. Especially as a newbie.

Watch this video: -

https://youtu.be/wLaSp5a-LqU
Thank you for the feedback Euler
I've watched that video before, and i've just watched it again!
"Anticipating price" action I am not very good at it would seem!

I must say in this video Peter talks about being pushed around by the market during a trade, and I am fairly happy I don't let it do that. I target 2-3 ticks, and have a rough stop I get out at roughly 10 ticks. Interesting Peter in this video trading the 3rd fav had a 1 tick target, and actually let it go 6 ticks against him, as he was confident it would come back!! (and it did!) He eludes from what he says and his cursor that he would have let it go about down here (3.1), 8ticks. So that's a 8:1 risk reward. So you need a very high hit rate for that to be profitable.

What I found today, I entered, and the trade fairly quickly went against me 10+ticks for a loss! so my risk:reward of 4:1, and I lost all 7 trades for a net loss of 70ticks ! But I think my price action anticipation is rubbish! I have no "edge". I entered the trade based on what I anticipated would happen, and managed it's exit, for a loss each time!
Maybe my next 28 trades will all be winners to get me back to breakeven!!

Regards
Mr.Goat!

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Kai
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Fri Jul 31, 2020 9:34 pm

goat68 wrote:
Fri Jul 31, 2020 9:32 pm
Thank you for the feedback Euler
Euler = Peter = Pete = PeteW

Enjoy the Keyser Söze moment :mrgreen:

goat68
Posts: 23
Joined: Tue Jun 30, 2020 3:53 pm

Fri Jul 31, 2020 11:25 pm

Kai wrote:
Fri Jul 31, 2020 9:34 pm
goat68 wrote:
Fri Jul 31, 2020 9:32 pm
Thank you for the feedback Euler
Euler = Peter = Pete = PeteW

Enjoy the Keyser Söze moment :mrgreen:
Oh! I feel embarrassed now :oops:
God damn these fake names!
Cheers
Mr.Goat !

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Kai
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Sat Aug 01, 2020 12:11 am

goat68 wrote:
Fri Jul 31, 2020 11:25 pm
Kai wrote:
Fri Jul 31, 2020 9:34 pm
goat68 wrote:
Fri Jul 31, 2020 9:32 pm
Thank you for the feedback Euler
Euler = Peter = Pete = PeteW

Enjoy the Keyser Söze moment :mrgreen:
Oh! I feel embarrassed now :oops:
God damn these fake names!
Cheers
Mr.Goat !
No worries, it took Derek over 4000 posts to figure that one out. Not that he would ever publicly admit it!

Best of luck Mr. Goat and watch out for those zig-zag wavelike movement patterns, that is sort of by design to punish the greediest of us if that makes sense, otherwise I'm sure you agree that trading these markets would be ridiculously easy!

Maybe this Peter's video can help explain more about that and how you can lose 7 in a row : https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=v7VIxbvrmfY

Btw, the other Youtube trader you mentioned earlier doesn't seem to actively trade anymore so his older stuff may not be of much use to you by now because markets have changed since then, I'd stick to the Bet Angel channel only.

goat68
Posts: 23
Joined: Tue Jun 30, 2020 3:53 pm

Sat Aug 01, 2020 7:30 pm

Better start today was trading a single "setup", 7 wins in a row, but only 1 tick scalps, however then my last 8th scalp rushed in the wrong direction for a 9 tick loss, :-(

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