Trading What I see !?

[jimibt]

do you maybe think that too many hours spent at the computer are burning you out? I am in the same boat, I work as an infrastructure architect/system engineer and have about 8 hours a day with complex issues to work on, then was trying to learn/trade for another 8 hours on exchange. After 3 weeks of doing this day in and out I just completely lost it and quit trading for indefinite time. If I do this for 2-3 years before I actually pick it up for good and get a feel for it, I will probably die. Quitting my job and fully committing to this is also not an option since the kind of money I currently make are pretty far off to be done in exchange trading by me.

Interesting. I'm in Systems Management. I've automated most of what I do at work, to free up time to trade from home. Used a lot of my work skills to automate my trading. Maybe there's a carry over from one to the other you can utilise ?

A lot of views on here are if you don't know how to manual trade, you'll struggle to automate...as what profitable strategy are you going to use?

ok, I'll chuck in with something that MAY unfortunately tie you to BA again but in a different way . If you learn the market mecahnics (both PRE and IP), then you will be able to at least TRY to exploit some sort mid level automation ideas.

Here's a simple little starter that won't make you any money off the bat, but is worth thinking about what it entails (you'd see this if you collected raw data):

1. In play - track the book percentage of the martket
2. When it goes above 115%, examine the runners whose odds have widened to form a HUGE spread
3. You'll very quickly realise that the affected runners are the two that are in close contention
4. Look for the SIZE of the gaps on both those runners
5. Note the rate at which both gaps decrease
6. Finally - repeat this process on lots of races

What you'll discover is that you can bebefit from this by effectively figuring out (50-60%) of the time how to lay the current fave when it is in the EVENS odds area (and when the rondula is in motion). This is a combo of analysis, trial and error and appreciating how to deal with the delay imposed by the excange.

Anyway, I said it was a starter but is such a good excercise in getting really acquainted with the market mechanics.

anyway, have a grt weekend all -cookathon night - l8r

[sniffer66]

do you maybe think that too many hours spent at the computer are burning you out? I am in the same boat, I work as an infrastructure architect/system engineer and have about 8 hours a day with complex issues to work on, then was trying to learn/trade for another 8 hours on exchange. After 3 weeks of doing this day in and out I just completely lost it and quit trading for indefinite time. If I do this for 2-3 years before I actually pick it up for good and get a feel for it, I will probably die. Quitting my job and fully committing to this is also not an option since the kind of money I currently make are pretty far off to be done in exchange trading by me.

Interesting. I'm in Systems Management. I've automated most of what I do at work, to free up time to trade from home. Used a lot of my work skills to automate my trading. Maybe there's a carry over from one to the other you can utilise ?

A lot of views on here are if you don't know how to manual trade, you'll struggle to automate...as what profitable strategy are you going to use?

Yes, but there's also the view that automation (for some people) takes the emotion out of trading. A bot is never going to chase the recovery on a big red etc Or go on tilt and blow a bank based on what it's done previously. I'm just suggesting that if you have skills that can be re-used, it's worth considering. Play to your strengths...

[Korattt]

Interesting. I'm in Systems Management. I've automated most of what I do at work, to free up time to trade from home. Used a lot of my work skills to automate my trading. Maybe there's a carry over from one to the other you can utilise ?

A lot of views on here are if you don't know how to manual trade, you'll struggle to automate...as what profitable strategy are you going to use?

ok, I'll chuck in with something that MAY unfortunately tie you to BA again but in a different way . If you learn the market mecahnics (both PRE and IP), then you will be able to at least TRY to exploit some sort mid level automation ideas.

Here's a simple little starter that won't make you any money off the bat, but is worth thinking about what it entails (you'd see this if you collected raw data):

1. In play - track the book percentage of the martket
2. When it goes above 115%, examine the runners whose odds have widened to form a HUGE spread
3. You'll very quickly realise that the affected runners are the two that are in close contention
4. Look for the SIZE of the gaps on both those runners
5. Note the rate at which both gaps decrease
6. Finally - repeat this process on lots of races

What you'll discover is that you can bebefit from this by effectively figuring out (50-60%) of the time how to lay the current fave when it is in the EVENS odds area (and when the rondula is in motion). This is a combo of analysis, trial and error and appreciating how to deal with the delay imposed by the excange.

Anyway, I said it was a starter but is such a good excercise in getting really acquainted with the market mechanics.

anyway, have a grt weekend all -cookathon night - l8r

Jim,

Thanks for that little tip, may just delve back into automation on the back of that

[goat68]

Interesting. I'm in Systems Management. I've automated most of what I do at work, to free up time to trade from home. Used a lot of my work skills to automate my trading. Maybe there's a carry over from one to the other you can utilise ?

A lot of views on here are if you don't know how to manual trade, you'll struggle to automate...as what profitable strategy are you going to use?

Yes, but there's also the view that automation (for some people) takes the emotion out of trading. A bot is never going to chase the recovery on a big red etc Or go on tilt and blow a bank based on what it's done previously. I'm just suggesting that if you have skills that can be re-used, it's worth considering. Play to your strengths...

Yeah, see what you mean, I think I'm going to take a break for a bit first to re-energize, then get into Guardian

[Jukebox]

Yeah, see what you mean, I think I'm going to take a break for a bit first to re-energize, then get into Guardian

and use small stakes - there is no reason to use larger stakes while learning - especially now you recognise how much there is to learn. It should be an intellectual exercise at this stage and you should be capable of measuring your progress as a percentage of your stakes.

[alexmr2]

What not to do lay a steamer!!

Can't seem to get loss exit strategy right:
If I cut early I get lots of small losses that out way the fewer larger wins..
If I try and do a managed exit I still end up with one that ends in a huge loss!

I've been through this scenario many times, something either looks weak (drifting or levelled out) and then the full blown reversal or steam down comes late and just doesn't retrace and I'm sitting there watching it as it goes lower and lower into the red. Contrary to this a favourite can look like an "obvious steamer", (the previous favourite just won which adds to my opinion) so I back it and then a couple of minutes to post it bounces like a clown's bouncy ball and goes up and up and up

I think the key is to first work on getting a good entry, learn how the market moves and don't enter somewhere where your stoploss is a red bus away which will either throw you out or leave you with a big loss. You then have to get used to cutting the loss short if you are wrong and move on. It takes a very long time to accept that your opinion is wrong (in fact even some good traders only have 50% strike rate and spend half the day scratching). I was told this 2 years ago and still struggle to think in probabilities and the long term sometimes, we just naturally always want to be right. Trading is very emotionally testing even to patient and mathematically thinking non-gamblers

[alexmr2]

do you maybe think that too many hours spent at the computer are burning you out?

I think when you are learning it is difficult to trade the whole day into the evening races without a break, often I would lose my days profit in the evening ones which can behave differently and this can lead to loss chasing and frustration after you getting burned out. For me 3-4 hours is good and I can always have little breaks inbetween on the poorer quality races

[jimibt]

A lot of views on here are if you don't know how to manual trade, you'll struggle to automate...as what profitable strategy are you going to use?

ok, I'll chuck in with something that MAY unfortunately tie you to BA again but in a different way . If you learn the market mecahnics (both PRE and IP), then you will be able to at least TRY to exploit some sort mid level automation ideas.

Here's a simple little starter that won't make you any money off the bat, but is worth thinking about what it entails (you'd see this if you collected raw data):

1. In play - track the book percentage of the martket
2. When it goes above 115%, examine the runners whose odds have widened to form a HUGE spread
3. You'll very quickly realise that the affected runners are the two that are in close contention
4. Look for the SIZE of the gaps on both those runners
5. Note the rate at which both gaps decrease
6. Finally - repeat this process on lots of races

What you'll discover is that you can bebefit from this by effectively figuring out (50-60%) of the time how to lay the current fave when it is in the EVENS odds area (and when the rondula is in motion). This is a combo of analysis, trial and error and appreciating how to deal with the delay imposed by the excange.

Anyway, I said it was a starter but is such a good excercise in getting really acquainted with the market mechanics.

anyway, have a grt weekend all -cookathon night - l8r

Jim,

Thanks for that little tip, may just delve back into automation on the back of that

this and about half a dozen (MAX) other mechanical interactions make up my entire strategy base. of course, there are degress of MIX among them, but by and large, the market churns them out daily... harvesting raw data is one of the key ways to observe and make sense of this, along with physical screen recordings...

pick 'n mix!

[goat68]

I'm going to just watch some races the next couple of weeks, I've got an idea of what I might want to automate. My persona is too emotional, so I just can't stick to it manual trading, hopefully automation will help if I can achieve what I want...
Thanks everyone

[jimibt]

I'm going to just watch some races the next couple of weeks, I've got an idea of what I might want to automate. My persona is too emotional, so I just can't stick to it manual trading, hopefully automation will help if I can achieve what I want...
Thanks everyone

mr goat, i'm exactly the same -too emotionally invested, that's why i targetted automation early on. i blew a few banks on manual and also found that i was too involved in the outcomes and chased the losses etc, etc.

like yourself, from an IT background (.net developer), so the lightbulb moment came when i looked at what skills i DID have -it certainly wasn't manual trading. flip to raw data and screen recordings and passively participate in the markets by analysing the data and look for patterns and anomalies -you'll find a rich (if densely populated) seam to mine.

[Anbell]

I'm going to just watch some races the next couple of weeks, I've got an idea of what I might want to automate. My persona is too emotional, so I just can't stick to it manual trading, hopefully automation will help if I can achieve what I want...
Thanks everyone

mr goat, i'm exactly the same -too emotionally invested, that's why i targetted automation early on. i blew a few banks on manual and also found that i was too involved in the outcomes and chased the losses etc, etc.

like yourself, from an IT background (.net developer), so the lightbulb moment came when i looked at what skills i DID have -it certainly wasn't manual trading. flip to raw data and screen recordings and passively participate in the markets by analysing the data and look for patterns and anomalies -you'll find a rich (if densely populated) seam to mine.

jimibt is always wise and right.

Also, before you check out, Mr Goat, I suggest you build a couple of simple bots, now, around some ideas that you might have, and run them with minimum stakes. Otherwise in a few weeks time you'll wish that you'd tested those ideas, and had a couple of extra weeks data to interrogate, and build from.

[jamesg46]

I'm going to just watch some races the next couple of weeks, I've got an idea of what I might want to automate. My persona is too emotional, so I just can't stick to it manual trading, hopefully automation will help if I can achieve what I want...
Thanks everyone

Two common traits among traders and I've noticed these mentioned time and time again throughout the forum, data & recording.

With the data you're collecting historical behavior, yesterday for example Peter posted in the Today's Racing Thread that there was a run of short priced fav's that had lost. He wasn't wasting his time typing out a meaningless observation & if you go back to the data it would of recorded how people behaved on the next fav, once their previous bet or trade had lost. You may have noticed that LeTiss had commented about Martingale & later Peter made a comment that the run had come to an end. I'm currently sat re watching how people reacted and how their behavior influenced the price action, i'm also re watching how i responded.

The markets are emotional behavior, yours and mine. Sequence of events occur that trigger predictable reactions... don't walk away because you feel you can't handle the emotions, learn them, recognise them, trade them. The alternatives are to give up living in fear of yourself.

[darchas]

... don't walk away because you feel you can't handle the emotions, learn them, recognise them, trade them. The alternatives are to give up living in fear of yourself.

Trading is a pursuit/endeavour/interest like any other. There's no shame in giving something a go and deciding it's not for you. Everyone is different, it's just where your own interest lies. I banged my head against a brick wall for 3 years trading before I started to make some headway, this wasn't because of some noble feat of facing my fears, just that I had a passion for it and an interest, all my adult life I've spent around gambling on horses and football and so I had a deep interest in it all. Compare that to playing guitar, I've never got beyond a very basic level and that's just because I haven't got the passion to see me through the grind of practicing and the long apprenticeship. That's fine. I can play piano well because it interested me and I kept it up.

Point being we can't all persevere and get good at everything, that's just the way of the world. Goat, take a break and if that passion is there you'll come back to it, if not and you never trade again that's fine too and there's no shame whatsoever in that.

[jamesg46]

... don't walk away because you feel you can't handle the emotions, learn them, recognise them, trade them. The alternatives are to give up living in fear of yourself.

Trading is a pursuit/endeavour/interest like any other. There's no shame in giving something a go and deciding it's not for you. Everyone is different, it's just where your own interest lies. I banged my head against a brick wall for 3 years trading before I started to make some headway, this wasn't because of some noble feat of facing my fears, just that I had a passion for it and an interest, all my adult life I've spent around gambling on horses and football and so I had a deep interest in it all. Compare that to playing guitar, I've never got beyond a very basic level and that's just because I haven't got the passion to see me through the grind of practicing and the long apprenticeship. That's fine. I can play piano well because it interested me and I kept it up.

Point being we can't all persevere and get good at everything, that's just the way of the world. Goat, take a break and if that passion is there you'll come back to it, if not and you never trade again that's fine too and there's no shame whatsoever in that.

My reply didn't come from a perception of goat's level of interest but you're right. My reply was based on goat's problem with his emotion.

"I'm going to just watch some races the next couple of weeks, I've got an idea of what I might want to automate. My persona is too emotional, so I just can't stick to it manual trading, hopefully automation will help if I can achieve what I want...
Thanks everyone"

He's already back, so he took taking a break off of the table himself, I just wanted to point out that emotions can be a positive thing because they play out in the markets & if he faces them in terms of seeing them then he can trade off of the back of others who don't take the time to do so.

[Kai]

My reply didn't come from a perception of goat's level of interest but you're right. My reply was based on goat's problem with his emotion.

But this is what I keep telling people, I don't actually think he has a problem with his emotions, any more so than the rest of us. I mean, does he cry at weddings? Or sobs uncontrollably when his dog dies or something?

I have seen the same movie so many times now both from up close and from afar, that I feel it mostly boils down to initial expectations which dictate everything else and the whole approach, because everyone starting out has certain expectations and when they are not met and are too far from reality then it's much easier to get impatient and emotional and go on a tilt, which apparently for many this means "oh well game over, I guess I'll try some automation then since I'm obviously useless at manual trading because I'm such an emotional diva", but for me this is just foreplay and where the real journey/learning starts, I think everyone needs to experience at least one tilt, to move past that. How can anyone become a success if they don't even experience any adversity or negative emotion?

The simple fact is that trading without an edge is akin to mental torture, especially in a competitive market driven by psychology and speculation, couldn't have honestly picked the worst market to start from imho.

And the other hard cold fact is that there's no real shortcut here, deep hard work simply has to be done at some point whether that's sooner or later, but you can't just throw countless hours at trading and expect superficial approaches to instantly work, that could take forever, the hours invested have to be quality hours to have a decent chance of that first breakthrough (which is the most difficult one). There is no real way around it, the trading puzzle simply has to be solved in order to profit.

This bigass thread can be a double-edged sword at times as well, you do get some proper advice and more importantly encouragement when you open yourself to constructive criticism etc, but you also get conflicting suggestions and invite additional pressure because you don't want to disappoint people and waste their time and efforts or seem like a failure.