Trading What I see !?

[spreadbetting]

God damn it, I hate you 'dice' how do you do it?!
Just manually traded, and lost...
Threw dice again, big win!

Maybe it's time to review your trading strategy, it's probably a losing one. Very hard to admit you're wrong when trading so we simply continue making the same mistakes in the belief it's variance etc.

[to75ne]

God damn it, I hate you 'dice' how do you do it?!
Just manually traded, and lost...
Threw dice again, big win!

your not really trading are you? at the moment you seem to be poking and hoping as opposed to thinking.

[goat68]

I think I know why it's so hard for me, I've no idea who else makes up the market on any particular day, venue, race, ...
Anyone got any tips for data on this?
Participants we have:
Traders
Bookie shop betters/gamblers
On course race goers having a bet or two..
Bookies
?

So here's my guess for Hamilton today:
Online traders : 60%
Bookies betters : 20%
On course : 0% noone there!
Bookies : 10%

[goat68]

God damn it, I hate you 'dice' how do you do it?!
Just manually traded, and lost...
Threw dice again, big win!

your not really trading are you? at the moment you seem to be poking and hoping as opposed to thinking.

Yes, I'm calling it experimentation!

[goat68]

God damn it, I hate you 'dice' how do you do it?!
Just manually traded, and lost...
Threw dice again, big win!

your not really trading are you? at the moment you seem to be poking and hoping as opposed to thinking.

I personally don't like to follow the crowd.
Had a good browse of the Automation threads yesterday, and one remark by Dallas struck me:

Take the most profitable bot, publish it, and once it has been downloaded 7-8 times, it will no longer be profitable....
This comes back to Peter's video...

[Atho55]

Not sure if this will help you or not but you can watch as many times as you like, pause it, step through 1 frame at a time etc.

It`s today. Sum5B is the Back money total, Sum5L is the Lay money, B% is the Back % of the Sum5`s, L% is the Lay % of the Sum5`s, SelVolDiff is the £ matched/sec on that runner. The other columns represent the £ at the odds.


https://youtu.be/oGCca44qIiM

[alexmr2]

Not sure if this will help you or not but you can watch as many times as you like, pause it, step through 1 frame at a time etc.

It`s today. Sum5B is the Back money total, Sum5L is the Lay money, B% is the Back % of the Sum5`s, L% is the Lay % of the Sum5`s, SelVolDiff is the £ matched/sec on that runner. The other columns represent the £ at the odds.


https://youtu.be/oGCca44qIiM

Thanks for sharing this, it's interesting you mention these things to look at because I've never spotted any sort of indicator looking at the back vs lay money or the %s. In the video I do see a pattern which took me almost 2 years to spot which is the prices the ranges like to form between

[smallplayer]

Not sure if this will help you or not but you can watch as many times as you like, pause it, step through 1 frame at a time etc.

It`s today. Sum5B is the Back money total, Sum5L is the Lay money, B% is the Back % of the Sum5`s, L% is the Lay % of the Sum5`s, SelVolDiff is the £ matched/sec on that runner. The other columns represent the £ at the odds.


https://youtu.be/oGCca44qIiM

Is this automation you use Atho? Please tell me I don't have to learn all this stuff in order to manually trade successfully

[Atho55]

Yes it`s automation placing the bet but that`s the 1 click screen you are looking at. But the idea is that you can keep viewing the same market over and over again till a pattern of sorts registers.

[goat68]

Ok this is where I get unstuck with the secret psychology game, so trying to think what your opponent traders are doing, and doing the opposite. So take the situation of a steamer, I know all the other traders are backing it, so I lay it!! Big loss! So what am I missing in this psychology equation.

Also, what if I think too cleverly, so for example I played scissors, he plays rock. So I think, well I know he is thinking that I will change to paper, but I know that he is thinking that, so I change to rock instead.

[wearthefoxhat]

Ok this is where I get unstuck with the secret psychology game, so trying to think what your opponent traders are doing, and doing the opposite. So take the situation of a steamer, I know all the other traders are backing it, so I lay it!! Big loss! So what am I missing in this psychology equation.

Also, what if I think too cleverly, so for example I played scissors, he plays rock. So I think, well I know he is thinking that I will change to paper, but I know that he is thinking that, so I change to rock instead.

Peter has said a few times, "For every market there's a trade, for every trade there's a market." (or something on those lines )
Our role is to find which one fits best.

One example;
The odds move in a race where there's a short price favourite with a long price second favourite, are likely to behave differently than if the market leaders were closer together. Maybe, whack in some peg-trades to test the direction either side, when confirmed, check the other runners price movement(s). You might see a pattern, see if the same happens with a similar set-up in other races.

[alexmr2]

Ok this is where I get unstuck with the secret psychology game, so trying to think what your opponent traders are doing, and doing the opposite. So take the situation of a steamer, I know all the other traders are backing it, so I lay it!! Big loss! So what am I missing in this psychology equation.

Also, what if I think too cleverly, so for example I played scissors, he plays rock. So I think, well I know he is thinking that I will change to paper, but I know that he is thinking that, so I change to rock instead.

I think the main point to take from that video is avoid the traps like jumping on something before it snaps back or being greedy adding to it etc. They say the profit is made from the buying price so get a good entry position and then play the probabilities game of taking smaller losses and bigger wins. Accept that you can't always be right instead of overthinking it and always trying to get it right or make every trade work. It's not unusual to have 3 or more losing or winning trades in a row which can easily break your psychology and trading

[goat68]

Ok this is where I get unstuck with the secret psychology game, so trying to think what your opponent traders are doing, and doing the opposite. So take the situation of a steamer, I know all the other traders are backing it, so I lay it!! Big loss! So what am I missing in this psychology equation.

Also, what if I think too cleverly, so for example I played scissors, he plays rock. So I think, well I know he is thinking that I will change to paper, but I know that he is thinking that, so I change to rock instead.

I think the main point to take from that video is avoid the traps like jumping on something before it snaps back or being greedy adding to it etc. They say the profit is made from the buying price so get a good entry position and then play the probabilities game of taking smaller losses and bigger wins. Accept that you can't always be right instead of overthinking it and always trying to get it right or make every trade work. It's not unusual to have 3 or more losing or winning trades in a row which can easily break your psychology and trading

I see it slightly differently, I look at a market and make judgement on whether a given selection is trading in a manner where doing the opposite of the crowd is right. For example an obvious steamer is not one, where as others are.. I'm still learning to judge which they are...!

[speedyhamster]

Ok this is where I get unstuck with the secret psychology game, so trying to think what your opponent traders are doing, and doing the opposite. So take the situation of a steamer, I know all the other traders are backing it, so I lay it!! Big loss! So what am I missing in this psychology equation.

Also, what if I think too cleverly, so for example I played scissors, he plays rock. So I think, well I know he is thinking that I will change to paper, but I know that he is thinking that, so I change to rock instead.

Could it be that when the traders open a Back position, then however far down the market steams and the traders close there position with
a Lay, you open a position with a Lay (at the time the traders are closing) then close a few ticks higher with a Back?

Or while traders are Backing the steamer on the Favourite, lay the second fav Drifting? (or which ever Horse is drifting in tandem with the Fav)

Not following the crowd can mean trading a different Horse.

[goat68]

Was doing really well all week, was in good profit, then have an awful Saturday lost all the profit for the week and more...
I got loads wrong today, and some that lurched from 1 tick profit to 15 tick loss...these seem inevitable losses
Really making me think whether I can be bothered...!