Trading What I see !?

Learn sports betting strategies and discuss key factors to consider when placing a bet.
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Derek27
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Location: UK

Morbius wrote:
Mon Oct 26, 2020 8:15 pm
Derek27 wrote:
Mon Oct 26, 2020 8:04 pm
goat68 wrote:
Mon Oct 26, 2020 7:55 pm


Do you know about football?
What do you know?
Goat, do you bother reading posts that you reply to? I told you exactly what I know about football, NOTHING.

Seeing as fundamental knowledge is far less effective in what is a highly mathematically modelled sport then knowing nothing is not a disadvantage but an advantage. As traders then concepts span all markets and sports and any trader who can only trade one market is on shaky ground. It's simply a case of learning the market nuances....I think I may run that course after all Derek :D
In my opinion, it's never an advantage not to know something, it's just that knowledge is sometimes not as advantageous as one might think. What we really need to do is know the full extent of the usefulness of our knowledge when applying it to trading and where it has no use.
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Kai
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I think what Jon Snow is trying to say is that knowing nothing is actually understanding everything.

So if Derek knows NOTHING about football (much like Jon Snow), then how can trading football be very profitable for him?
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Morbius
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Kai wrote:
Mon Oct 26, 2020 8:53 pm
I think what Jon Snow is saying is that knowing nothing is actually understanding everything.

So if Derek knows NOTHING about football (much like Jon Snow), then how can trading football be very profitable for him?

Analogy time......my missus has been in sales all her life. I have it on good authority that her sales technique is exceptional as she often gets head hunted. However she has only ever sold the same product. So she has zero product knowledge of anything else she may sell. But that didn't stop people head hunting her from other fields.....why.....because product knowledge is the easy part and can be learned in a short time frame. The hard part is selling which many experts claim is an art form but she would out perform someone in a different field very quickly if all they had was product knowkedge and no sales skill...it's the same principle. As a trader who is successful in one area then you already have the knowledge to trade.

I would back my footballing knowledge against anyone on this forum but how much of that would be relevant trading football.....probably very little and what I did know may hold me back.
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Morbius
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Derek27 wrote:
Mon Oct 26, 2020 8:39 pm
Morbius wrote:
Mon Oct 26, 2020 8:15 pm
Derek27 wrote:
Mon Oct 26, 2020 8:04 pm

Goat, do you bother reading posts that you reply to? I told you exactly what I know about football, NOTHING.

Seeing as fundamental knowledge is far less effective in what is a highly mathematically modelled sport then knowing nothing is not a disadvantage but an advantage. As traders then concepts span all markets and sports and any trader who can only trade one market is on shaky ground. It's simply a case of learning the market nuances....I think I may run that course after all Derek :D
In my opinion, it's never an advantage not to know something, it's just that knowledge is sometimes not as advantageous as one might think. What we really need to do is know the full extent of the usefulness of our knowledge when applying it to trading and where it has no use.
.


That's a much better way of phrasing it
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Derek27
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Kai wrote:
Mon Oct 26, 2020 8:09 pm
Derek27 wrote:
Mon Oct 26, 2020 8:04 pm
goat68 wrote:
Mon Oct 26, 2020 7:55 pm


Do you know about football?
What do you know?
Goat, do you bother reading posts that you reply to? I told you exactly what I know about football, NOTHING.
But you know a thing or two about the ladder :) Makes trading Peruvian football a bit easier!
Every seen a fight where one boxer just cannot get a punch in? That's what trading a Venezuelan match can be like, trying to punch someone that's not even there. :)
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Kai
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Sure, it could also be that Jon Snow is more interested in trading volatility (a different sport altogether) and not the football :)
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Euler
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Some of the worst pre-off racing traders I know are highly knowledgable on racing.

When I would run courses I would describe what I saw in the market...

I'd say something, this horse is getting a lot of backing support so I'll back it looking for it to shorten.

The very knowledge types would pipe up with something like... But that makes no sense it's going to lose! Out would come various reasons why it couldn't win. They couldn't go against that instinct.

But it's the same with people who are too intellectual, they can't take the risk, they over qualify everything. I'm surprised they have ever crossed a road!
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Kai
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Euler wrote:
Mon Oct 26, 2020 9:46 pm
But it's the same with people who are too intellectual, they can't take the risk, they over qualify everything. I'm surprised they have ever crossed a road!
That's not a bad way of settling this random discussion, if you're suggesting that it's better to be Jon Slow than an intellectual. That's going to be my key takeaway!
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Morbius
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Euler wrote:
Mon Oct 26, 2020 9:46 pm
Some of the worst pre-off racing traders I know are highly knowledgable on racing.

When I would run courses I would describe what I saw in the market...

I'd say something, this horse is getting a lot of backing support so I'll back it looking for it to shorten.

The very knowledge types would pipe up with something like... But that makes no sense it's going to lose! Out would come various reasons why it couldn't win. They couldn't go against that instinct.

But it's the same with people who are too intellectual, they can't take the risk, they over qualify everything. I'm surprised they have ever crossed a road!

I can well imagine the scene in your trading room :D

The problem with people is that they simply cannot think in probabilistic terms and stochastic events confound them. They want linear results in a non linear world but also IMO ignore the fact of what their very own life experiences teach them. Life itself is trading and uncertainty and probability surrounds us everywhere including being reminded constantly that knowledge that we had didn't mean what we thought it meant
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Morbius
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Kai wrote:
Mon Oct 26, 2020 10:00 pm
Euler wrote:
Mon Oct 26, 2020 9:46 pm
But it's the same with people who are too intellectual, they can't take the risk, they over qualify everything. I'm surprised they have ever crossed a road!
That's not a bad way of settling this random discussion, if you're suggesting that it's better to be Jon Slow than an intellectual. That's going to be my key takeaway!

You can't be an intellectual if you can't take risk because if that's the case then you aren't an intellectual on trading at all because proper trading comes very close to eliminating risk with proper diversification and risk control systems in place. The risk as Euler put it isn't the issue....it's the perception of risk that's the issue
NickH
Posts: 174
Joined: Tue May 21, 2019 7:54 am

Derek27 wrote:
Mon Oct 26, 2020 9:17 pm
Kai wrote:
Mon Oct 26, 2020 8:09 pm
Derek27 wrote:
Mon Oct 26, 2020 8:04 pm

Goat, do you bother reading posts that you reply to? I told you exactly what I know about football, NOTHING.
But you know a thing or two about the ladder :) Makes trading Peruvian football a bit easier!
Every seen a fight where one boxer just cannot get a punch in? That's what trading a Venezuelan match can be like, trying to punch someone that's not even there. :)
Don’t forget the KO’ing of yourself if they suspend the market for the full match when just entering your trade :lol:
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Morbius
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And there's no binary outcome with this Kai. The taking on of risk is a knowledge coupled with experience issue. Imagine having to drive 100 miles up a busy motorway. Clearly there is risk in doing so for everyone but the systems put in place by experienced drivers mitigate this to close to zero but to a learner the risk may be too much or even to the person who over states the risk.....paralysis by analysis

Trading is no different....risk is higher with a lack of specific knowledge

Thread is getting off track so my last word :D
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speedyhamster
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auto-matt wrote:
Sun Oct 25, 2020 10:43 am
speedyhamster wrote:
Sat Oct 24, 2020 12:06 am
about mindsets

https://www.brainpickings.org/2014/01/2 ... k-mindset/
Great post, have you read the book by any chance and if so would you recommend it?
going by the review on amazon i have purchased https://www.amazon.co.uk/gp/product/B00 ... UTF8&psc=1 which is cheaper which i have just started to read i will get back to you when i have read it
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Kai
Posts: 6092
Joined: Tue Jan 20, 2015 12:21 pm

Morbius wrote:
Mon Oct 26, 2020 10:18 pm
And there's no binary outcome with this Kai. The taking on of risk is a knowledge coupled with experience issue. Imagine having to drive 100 miles up a busy motorway. Clearly there is risk in doing so for everyone but the systems put in place by experienced drivers mitigate this to close to zero but to a learner the risk may be too much or even to the person who over states the risk.....paralysis by analysis

Trading is no different....risk is higher with a lack of specific knowledge

Thread is getting off track so my last word :D
You don't have to worry about me Professor Morbius, I am no stranger to risk and I take on plenty, if not with my trading then at least with my posting.

Well that was almost fun, have a good one :)
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goat68
Posts: 2019
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Location: Hampshire, UK

Just been watching Einstein and the Theory of Relativity on Prime Video, a good watch if you like that stuff.... I get back here and you've gone all intellectual or not .... It depends on your relative frame of reference....??
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