Trading What I see !?

Learn sports betting strategies and discuss key factors to consider when placing a bet.
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Kai
Posts: 6219
Joined: Tue Jan 20, 2015 12:21 pm

Isn't that we what we're all trying to do in a nutshell?

If we're all just trying to trade the probabilities while our various emotions and cognitive biases try and get in the way then the inevitable failure to do that usually means we end up trading our emotions and fears instead and the market takes us for an unpleasant ride.

To successfully get around that you have to find your own way of trading around your emotions. If most real risk (if not all of it) comes from not knowing what you're doing then you can mitigate that risk or eliminate it with enough knowledge and experience of your particular market, but people don't usually like getting their hands dirty and venturing too deep into the behavior of their own market. Even though that's where most of the edges are actually hidden!

There's an overkill of good advice in this thread alone, let alone on the forum as a whole, but it's not like one can just flip a switch and instantly apply some of it, that is why people offer advice in the first place :)

Just saying that if you don't yet know where your edge is coming from or whether you even have one, it would help to properly learn how to frame your trade and think probabilities instead of emotions and fears, meaning you know exactly what you're looking for and you know whereabouts to enter and exit in advance, based on whether you're right or not, and ideally you want the reward to be bigger when you do get it right compared to the punishment when you get it wrong.

If you took the time to truly break down all of the skills that you're trying to learn all at once (!!) then you'd probably realize why it feels so overwhelming at times and that maybe the best way to approach trading at the start is to keep it as simple as possible (K.I.S.S.), and build from there, having one rock solid foundation is more than enough to keep building further.
jamesg46
Posts: 3769
Joined: Sat Jul 30, 2016 1:05 pm

Im still convinced that the use of "edge" is the biggest killer of new traders. My issue with it is, an edge is perceived as having a profitable strategy and that's just not true imo.

An edge for me is a certain "setup" within a certain "strategy"

One of the most common traps most fall into (including myself) is thinking that you need to correctly guess the direction the market is going to go, for example, turning up and placing a lay trade because you expect the runner to drift etc.

Imo, people are instantly putting themselves on the back foot, the market hasn't proved itself in any direction so why try and guess it?

Something Peter tweeted out at the beginning of the year "people are obsessed with round numbers"

So for an example of my ramble,

Strategy: Competitive Hcap, early backed now drifting & above moving avg.

Setup: Scalp the break of round numbers.

The runner is drifting towards 4.0 (first entry a lay for the break through 4) a Seravnt used that offsets spreading your exit, 4.1, 4.2, 4.3 & 4.4

Successful break, next target is a break through 4.5 (same servant) exits at 4.6,4.7,4.8 & 4.9 with an immediate stop if failing to break.

Successful break, next target is a break of 5 (you get the point)

Risk: Fails to break.

Stop: Immediate after a failed break.

There are plenty of setups within strategies & Peters recent video shows that nicely (3 trades backing.)

Kai also makes a good point, people don't learn to trade around their emotions.

The above is a pretty aggressive and at the same time risk adverse way of scalping the break of round numbers. In and out but at the same time each successful break creates a buffer if the next target fails.

Good luck but its much more than just sticking a few quid either side of the book, believe me I've sent myself in circles for years, literally like a dog chasing it's tail.
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goat68
Posts: 2019
Joined: Tue Jun 30, 2020 3:53 pm
Location: Hampshire, UK

jamesg46 wrote:
Wed Aug 19, 2020 7:31 pm
Im still convinced that the use of "edge" is the biggest killer of new traders. My issue with it is, an edge is perceived as having a profitable strategy and that's just not true imo.

An edge for me is a certain "setup" within a certain "strategy"

One of the most common traps most fall into (including myself) is thinking that you need to correctly guess the direction the market is going to go, for example, turning up and placing a lay trade because you expect the runner to drift etc.

Imo, people are instantly putting themselves on the back foot, the market hasn't proved itself in any direction so why try and guess it?

Something Peter tweeted out at the beginning of the year "people are obsessed with round numbers"

So for an example of my ramble,

Strategy: Competitive Hcap, early backed now drifting & above moving avg.

Setup: Scalp the break of round numbers.

The runner is drifting towards 4.0 (first entry a lay for the break through 4) a Seravnt used that offsets spreading your exit, 4.1, 4.2, 4.3 & 4.4

Successful break, next target is a break through 4.5 (same servant) exits at 4.6,4.7,4.8 & 4.9 with an immediate stop if failing to break.

Successful break, next target is a break of 5 (you get the point)

Risk: Fails to break.

Stop: Immediate after a failed break.

There are plenty of setups within strategies & Peters recent video shows that nicely (3 trades backing.)

Kai also makes a good point, people don't learn to trade around their emotions.

The above is a pretty aggressive and at the same time risk adverse way of scalping the break of round numbers. In and out but at the same time each successful break creates a buffer if the next target fails.

Good luck but its much more than just sticking a few quid either side of the book, believe me I've sent myself in circles for years, literally like a dog chasing it's tail.
I think I am missunderstanding people's comments, for example Euler stated on page 2 of this thread you need to anticipate price action, my mind read that as direction...!

Anyway I'm going to go away now and stare at a few hundred markets.......... !
I've asked enough of you lot, so thank you anyway
jamesg46
Posts: 3769
Joined: Sat Jul 30, 2016 1:05 pm

goat68 wrote:
Wed Aug 19, 2020 7:41 pm
jamesg46 wrote:
Wed Aug 19, 2020 7:31 pm
Im still convinced that the use of "edge" is the biggest killer of new traders. My issue with it is, an edge is perceived as having a profitable strategy and that's just not true imo.

An edge for me is a certain "setup" within a certain "strategy"

One of the most common traps most fall into (including myself) is thinking that you need to correctly guess the direction the market is going to go, for example, turning up and placing a lay trade because you expect the runner to drift etc.

Imo, people are instantly putting themselves on the back foot, the market hasn't proved itself in any direction so why try and guess it?

Something Peter tweeted out at the beginning of the year "people are obsessed with round numbers"

So for an example of my ramble,

Strategy: Competitive Hcap, early backed now drifting & above moving avg.

Setup: Scalp the break of round numbers.

The runner is drifting towards 4.0 (first entry a lay for the break through 4) a Seravnt used that offsets spreading your exit, 4.1, 4.2, 4.3 & 4.4

Successful break, next target is a break through 4.5 (same servant) exits at 4.6,4.7,4.8 & 4.9 with an immediate stop if failing to break.

Successful break, next target is a break of 5 (you get the point)

Risk: Fails to break.

Stop: Immediate after a failed break.

There are plenty of setups within strategies & Peters recent video shows that nicely (3 trades backing.)

Kai also makes a good point, people don't learn to trade around their emotions.

The above is a pretty aggressive and at the same time risk adverse way of scalping the break of round numbers. In and out but at the same time each successful break creates a buffer if the next target fails.

Good luck but its much more than just sticking a few quid either side of the book, believe me I've sent myself in circles for years, literally like a dog chasing it's tail.
I think I am missunderstanding people's comments, for example Euler stated on page 2 of this thread you need to anticipate price action, my mind read that as direction...!

Anyway I'm going to go away now and stare at a few hundred markets.......... !
I've asked enough of you lot, so thank you anyway
Dont stop asking, its a way of learning.

Peter is 100% correct. You can anticipate price action within a trend just like my example. That's my take, not Peters opinion, I'll leave Peters opinion to Peter.
smallplayer
Posts: 120
Joined: Wed Aug 17, 2016 8:30 am

hi Goat and all repliers. interesting thread. thanks to all the experienced traders for replies. as a learner myself i find them useful. just curious Goat..how many races have you traded so far and what bank you using to produce those figures you quoted earlier. also, do you trade all race types and if so, do you vary approach/strategy to suit race?
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goat68
Posts: 2019
Joined: Tue Jun 30, 2020 3:53 pm
Location: Hampshire, UK

smallplayer wrote:
Wed Aug 19, 2020 7:56 pm
hi Goat and all repliers. interesting thread. thanks to all the experienced traders for replies. as a learner myself i find them useful. just curious Goat..how many races have you traded so far and what bank you using to produce those figures you quoted earlier. also, do you trade all race types and if so, do you vary approach/strategy to suit race?
Hi!
In the last month of trading this strategy I have done 240 markets, with a bank of £600, which I wouldn't cry over if I blew it!
Total P&L for the month -£12 !

I do apply my method to the more volatile races, Nov, Mdn, etc as I have been trying a more swing approach, I thought I could judge price action better for those markets rather than slow hcaps. I also select higher volume markets, so at least 50k at 15mins.
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goat68
Posts: 2019
Joined: Tue Jun 30, 2020 3:53 pm
Location: Hampshire, UK

Being positive that's probably £12 well spent :-)
smallplayer
Posts: 120
Joined: Wed Aug 17, 2016 8:30 am

ok, thx..so you're very selective and only trade the races that can produce big moves. i'm in no position to offer any advice,so i wont :D (well, maybe a little)
i will say that your losses seem real big in comparison to your wins. those same volatile races are my biggest earners (although modest compared to some i know). for me personally i would never take any more than 25% loss of my average wins. on those races. im expecting a decent win if i get it right, but i'm not prepared to take any extra of a loss compared to any other race.
just watch any of peters video's..he'll either be winning 30 ticks or losing 3 !
it took me a while (8k races) to realise that the profit is not in what you win, but in what you dont lose.
btw. i scale in bets if its going my way, but imm start scaling out if its not. yes sometimes i dont get as much on as i would like, but it works for me. this way stopped those big reds which just set me back weeks each time. anyway, gl Goat..hope you get there, you seem keen
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goat68
Posts: 2019
Joined: Tue Jun 30, 2020 3:53 pm
Location: Hampshire, UK

smallplayer wrote:
Wed Aug 19, 2020 8:29 pm
ok, thx..so you're very selective and only trade the races that can produce big moves. i'm in no position to offer any advice,so i wont :D (well, maybe a little)
i will say that your losses seem real big in comparison to your wins. those same volatile races are my biggest earners (although modest compared to some i know). for me personally i would never take any more than 25% loss of my average wins. on those races. im expecting a decent win if i get it right, but i'm not prepared to take any extra of a loss compared to any other race.
just watch any of peters video's..he'll either be winning 30 ticks or losing 3 !
it took me a while (8k races) to realise that the profit is not in what you win, but in what you dont lose.
btw. i scale in bets if its going my way, but imm start scaling out if its not. yes sometimes i dont get as much on as i would like, but it works for me. this way stopped those big reds which just set me back weeks each time. anyway, gl Goat..hope you get there, you seem keen
Thanks for your insights, interesting, I realize the big losers is my issue, been thinking about it so your insight is helpful thanks.
Not sure ive seen Peter take 30 ticks frequently, so I'm going to go back and watch those videos again!
Cheers
smallplayer
Posts: 120
Joined: Wed Aug 17, 2016 8:30 am

maybe slight exaggeration on the 30 ticks..but the 3 ticks was the important number..he doesn't do many videos of losers but any that he does shows him get out asap..never more than 2-4 ticks..less if he can!
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goat68
Posts: 2019
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Location: Hampshire, UK

smallplayer wrote:
Wed Aug 19, 2020 8:39 pm
maybe slight exaggeration on the 30 ticks..but the 3 ticks was the important number..he doesn't do many videos of losers but any that he does shows him get out asap..never more than 2-4 ticks..less if he can!
Yeah seen that, not sure how Peter does that every time, but there aren't many losing trade videos from Peter..!
Would be useful for him to record some, but I imagine that's quite hard for him to do losing trades :-)
smallplayer
Posts: 120
Joined: Wed Aug 17, 2016 8:30 am

i'd imagine peter gets it wrong often enough during a race, but quickly exits for a small loss. so small that any subsequent re-entered winning trade wipes out initial losses. his advantage over the likes of us, i'd imagine would be his speed at reassessment, therefore allowing him to do many trades per race, therefore increasing his chances of a positive result.
would be nice if he could comment on my theory :D
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goat68
Posts: 2019
Joined: Tue Jun 30, 2020 3:53 pm
Location: Hampshire, UK

smallplayer wrote:
Wed Aug 19, 2020 8:48 pm
i'd imagine peter gets it wrong often enough during a race, but quickly exits for a small loss. so small that any subsequent re-entered winning trade wipes out initial losses. his advantage over the likes of us, i'd imagine would be his speed at reassessment, therefore allowing him to do many trades per race, therefore increasing his chances of a positive result.
would be nice if he could comment on my theory :D
I've just watched a few if his videos again, all winners! And it's interesting, Peter in what he says about his trade entry is quite vague, it's sort of "this horse doesn't want to go below 3, keeps bouncing back every time it goes below, so I'm going to enter at the lower end of this trading range 2.90ish expecting a bounce back up to 3.25-3.5...", of course he manages the active trade to perfection, which makes him s tidy profit :-)
If this was me, and I've had similar vague entry thoughts, I would enter at 2.9, the trade would then start creeping lower then break lower down to say 2.5 and I am out for a huge loss!!
I would love to see a video when Peter gets it wrong and how he manages out of it.....?
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goat68
Posts: 2019
Joined: Tue Jun 30, 2020 3:53 pm
Location: Hampshire, UK

In fact if I was to make a cheeky video request to PW, I'd like him to record a complete afternoon of trading, and then compile all the losers with some over commentary please?. I'm guessing it might need a few afternoons to get enough for a video I guess...!!
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jimibt
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Location: Narnia

trading what I see is perfectly illustrated and summed up here...

The monkey business illusion

enjoy....
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