Trading What I see !?

[Kai]

Can't seem to get loss exit strategy right:
If I cut early I get lots of small losses that out way the fewer larger wins..
If I try and do a managed exit I still end up with one that ends in a huge loss!

Regarding losses, the good old tried and tested FTSIO strategy still works pretty well for me, always happy to share that one (NSFW version) : https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5FjWe31 ... l=FFStudio

i blew a few banks on manual and also found that i was too involved in the outcomes and chased the losses etc, etc.

I think literally everyone does that to start with, it's human psychology at its most default setting? I blew a big chunk myself and needed a step back to learn the necessary lessons. My expectations, like everyone else's, were all over the place and I had to drastically adjust them in order to continue.

The market is not going to cough up profit every time you politely ask, you have to forcefully pry it from its dead cold hands. If you're going to attack a particular market you have to expect that it's going to fight back, that should never come as a surprise and yet people keep being surprised by that despite all of the disclaimers and warnings about that.

Some of these idioms aren't too suited for trading, since it's not a good idea to personalize it too much because you're mostly battling your own self and not the market, but you know what I mean

[jamesg46]

My reply didn't come from a perception of goat's level of interest but you're right. My reply was based on goat's problem with his emotion.

But this is what I keep telling people, I don't actually think he has a problem with his emotions, any more so than the rest of us. I mean, does he cry at weddings? Or sobs uncontrollably when his dog dies or something?

I have seen the same movie so many times now both from up close and from afar, that I feel it mostly boils down to initial expectations which dictate everything else and the whole approach, because everyone starting out has certain expectations and when they are not met and are too far from reality then it's much easier to get impatient and emotional and go on a tilt, which apparently for many this means "oh well game over, I guess I'll try some automation then since I'm obviously useless at manual trading because I'm such an emotional diva", but for me this is just foreplay and where the real journey/learning starts, I think everyone needs to experience at least one tilt, to move past that. How can anyone become a success if they don't even experience any adversity or negative emotion?

The simple fact is that trading without an edge is akin to mental torture, especially in a competitive market driven by psychology and speculation, couldn't have honestly picked the worst market to start from imho.

And the other hard cold fact is that there's no real shortcut here, deep hard work simply has to be done at some point whether that's sooner or later, but you can't just throw countless hours at trading and expect superficial approaches to instantly work, that could take forever, the hours invested have to be quality hours to have a decent chance of that first breakthrough (which is the most difficult one). There is no real way around it, the trading puzzle simply has to be solved in order to profit.

This bigass thread can be a double-edged sword at times as well, you do get some proper advice and more importantly encouragement when you open yourself to constructive criticism etc, but you also get conflicting suggestions and invite additional pressure because you don't want to disappoint people and waste their time and efforts or seem like a failure.

I have no idea how emotional goat is, I took his words litrally and just wanted to highlight to him that those emotions he feels are just part of trading.... if he watches them, he can trade them, sort of like being one step ahead of yourself and an insight as to why some things happen.

I agree about expectations, I've set myself up time and time again.

Regarding losses, the good old tried and tested FTSIO strategy still works pretty well for me, always happy to share that one (NSFW version) : https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5FjWe31 ... l=FFStudio

[goat68]

So I've loaded up another £100...
And given a few markets a go today, and one thing that really sticks out is the smallest moves are in the direction you expect, the largest moves are in totally unexpected directions!!
I know some of you have stated before that I should trust my judgement, however my judgement is based on what the market is telling me, and I am pretty sure the market wants to screw me over!! So in that respect I ought to fool the market and trade in the opposite direction to what I think it's telling me.......!

[goat68]

No I'm wrong, Mr.Market is looking over my shoulder so either way it knows how to screw me over.....!

[to75ne]

So I've loaded up another £100...
And given a few markets a go today, and one thing that really sticks out is the smallest moves are in the direction you expect, the largest moves are in totally unexpected directions!!
I know some of you have stated before that I should trust my judgement, however my judgement is based on what the market is telling me, and I am pretty sure the market wants to screw me over!! So in that respect I ought to fool the market and trade in the opposite direction to what I think it's telling me.......!

Sundays are not best days to trade especially if you are not capable of trading effectively over any meaningful time span.

coincidently I was looking on ytube today (watching old footage of jimmy greaves), and in the list of recommended videos was a new upload form betangel. You should have a look at it, it could almost be mr webb replying to this fred (i doubt it, just a coincidence i reckon.)

[goat68]

Ok going to trade the next 4 races by random.
Toss coin on direction, and randomly go in and enter fav, green at 1min out

[goat68]

So I've loaded up another £100...
And given a few markets a go today, and one thing that really sticks out is the smallest moves are in the direction you expect, the largest moves are in totally unexpected directions!!
I know some of you have stated before that I should trust my judgement, however my judgement is based on what the market is telling me, and I am pretty sure the market wants to screw me over!! So in that respect I ought to fool the market and trade in the opposite direction to what I think it's telling me.......!

Sundays are not best days to trade especially if you are not capable of trading effectively over any meaningful time span.

coincidently I was looking on ytube today (watching old footage of jimmy greaves), and in the list of recommended videos was a new upload form betangel. You should have a look at it, it could almost be mr webb replying to this fred (i doubt it, just a coincidence i reckon.)

Peters latest video is the No crowds one, is that what you were referring to?

[goat68]

Found it psychology secrets!

[smallplayer]

So I've loaded up another £100...
And given a few markets a go today, and one thing that really sticks out is the smallest moves are in the direction you expect, the largest moves are in totally unexpected directions!!
I know some of you have stated before that I should trust my judgement, however my judgement is based on what the market is telling me, and I am pretty sure the market wants to screw me over!! So in that respect I ought to fool the market and trade in the opposite direction to what I think it's telling me.......!

Sundays are not best days to trade especially if you are not capable of trading effectively over any meaningful time span.

coincidently I was looking on ytube today (watching old footage of jimmy greaves), and in the list of recommended videos was a new upload form betangel. You should have a look at it, it could almost be mr webb replying to this fred (i doubt it, just a coincidence i reckon.)

Are Sundays difficult because it is mainly traders only in market, or some other reason? Thanks.

[to75ne]

Are Sundays difficult because it is mainly traders only in market, or some other reason? Thanks.

invariably they are lower volumes markets due to the racing usually being of lower quality - less volume going through markets - bit more volatile - prices firm up later making it more risky to put larger stakes through.

[goat68]

Great video! I'm actually aware of what Peter is talking about there, and is what I try employ in my method, eg.if a fav really looks over backed ie.it looks like it's come in a long way, it must be going to go back out? Then I would do the opposite ie.back it
All sorts of other patterns I think the same way...
I'm just obviously not very good at it!!
However, I think I am over looking something, and that, is who is the opponent? As it them you have to think like...
For example, today being Sunday, who is trading/betting today? (Idiots like me!) Whereas Saturday is a totally different set of opponents...
So I need to think differently, on different days, different types of races, different weather maybe? As all these affect who the opponent is and how they are thinking!!

Awesome video Peter

[goat68]

So good news, or bad, depending how you look at it, having lost all afternoon. My 4 random entries on a roll of a dice 1 small loss, 3 big wins, made all my earlier losses back, good old dice!

[alexmr2]

No I'm wrong, Mr.Market is looking over my shoulder so either way it knows how to screw me over.....!

I know the feeling, seemed to always get it wrong with lots of two way traffic and struggling to go into the green at all today. One of my worst days ever another £120 down which is a nasty end to a week where I seemed to be making some slow progress

20th.png

Took a bad loss on this one, at trading time all the big layers seemed to say it was too short and hold it above 3.5 until a big spike pushed it down to 3.0 and then it went up and down from there. On the early ones I got caught out a few times where both the 1st and 2nd decided to come in, stall and then come in together again

t2.png

[alexmr2]

Great video! I'm actually aware of what Peter is talking about there, and is what I try employ in my method, eg.if a fav really looks over backed ie.it looks like it's come in a long way, it must be going to go back out? Then I would do the opposite ie.back it
All sorts of other patterns I think the same way...
I'm just obviously not very good at it!!

What I take from the new video is that you have to think what your opponent is thinking that you will do, I would guess that some examples this could be:

There has been a big swing and people get FOMO and jump in only for it to snap back and take them out for a loss and then continue in either direction
An obvious setup like where everyone has layed at a crossover and then it comes in, and in, and in or in enough to take those stoplosses and then goes back out
There has been a spike and you can spot what those that on the wrong side of it will do while feeling pain

I once watched a forex video where the guy said instituitional traders buy at good levels or don't buy at all, much like a car or antique dealer the only way for them to consistently make profit is to buy below the market value, and buying at random prices is just gambling. So they would rather die than chase the price . An exercise to try was before you place your trade hit yourself over the head with a book and then instead of placing that trade put your stake where your stoploss would have been and watch how many times the market comes and takes it. I don't think it is as straight forward as that in pre-off as that as there are different kinds of trades and it depends on the ranges each runner is moving within. I may be wrong on all this but would be interesting for someone more experienced to comment on it

[goat68]

God damn it, I hate you 'dice' how do you do it?!
Just manually traded, and lost...
Threw dice again, big win!