Trading What I see !?

[jimibt]

And my rolling PnL since starting this strategy, just about breakeven:
HorseProfit.jpg

not sure how best to put this. i may be reading that chart incorrectly, or the uderlaying stategy may not be obvious. to me, that graph shows a slow spiral of death. if you look at the peaks above ZERO versus the noise below ZERO, you can see that there's a strong negative bias.

can you explain why you fell this is breakeven, other than having clawed back from a losing position to just below breakeven??

sorry if this sounds negative and down on the graph, just find it hard to see that and want to embrace it

[goat68]

And my rolling PnL since starting this strategy, just about breakeven:
HorseProfit.jpg

not sure how best to put this. i may be reading that chart incorrectly, or the uderlaying stategy may not be obvious. to me, that graph shows a slow spiral of death. if you look at the peaks above ZERO versus the noise below ZERO, you can see that there's a strong negative bias.

can you explain why you fell this is breakeven, other than having clawed back from a losing position to just below breakeven??

sorry if this sounds negative and down on the graph, just find it hard to see that and want to embrace it

This chart is over the last 5 weeks or so, if you read the last 5 weeks of this thread you will see my struggles!!
I'm also taking the positive mindset, as per Peter's videos, the chart is well within the realms of randomness, and I am chipping away at moving to the right half of the bell curve, it doesn't take much.. so breakeven at this point is good

[goat68]

And my rolling PnL since starting this strategy, just about breakeven:
HorseProfit.jpg

not sure how best to put this. i may be reading that chart incorrectly, or the uderlaying stategy may not be obvious. to me, that graph shows a slow spiral of death. if you look at the peaks above ZERO versus the noise below ZERO, you can see that there's a strong negative bias.

can you explain why you fell this is breakeven, other than having clawed back from a losing position to just below breakeven??

sorry if this sounds negative and down on the graph, just find it hard to see that and want to embrace it

Oh and to answer your question! To be only £5 down after 5 weeks and about 350 markets, is good enough breakeven for me !

[Kai]

And my rolling PnL since starting this strategy, just about breakeven:
HorseProfit.jpg

not sure how best to put this. i may be reading that chart incorrectly, or the uderlaying stategy may not be obvious. to me, that graph shows a slow spiral of death. if you look at the peaks above ZERO versus the noise below ZERO, you can see that there's a strong negative bias.

can you explain why you fell this is breakeven, other than having clawed back from a losing position to just below breakeven??

sorry if this sounds negative and down on the graph, just find it hard to see that and want to embrace it

Oh and to answer your question! To be only £5 down after 5 weeks and about 350 markets, is good enough breakeven for me !

If 350 markets total is all you ever did then I'd expect anyone to be just below breakeven at best. Don't think any of these charts give any real insight yet, for me it's all just a phase of collecting live market experience. Any current strategy talk will most likely be obsolete once you crack it anyway.

For what it's worth back in 2014 (my first year) I needed 3000+ markets worth of experience to even start profiting, with a mix of football and racing. To crack it after just 350 markets you would truly be G.O.A.T.

[wearthefoxhat]

not sure how best to put this. i may be reading that chart incorrectly, or the uderlaying stategy may not be obvious. to me, that graph shows a slow spiral of death. if you look at the peaks above ZERO versus the noise below ZERO, you can see that there's a strong negative bias.

can you explain why you fell this is breakeven, other than having clawed back from a losing position to just below breakeven??

sorry if this sounds negative and down on the graph, just find it hard to see that and want to embrace it

Oh and to answer your question! To be only £5 down after 5 weeks and about 350 markets, is good enough breakeven for me !

If 350 markets total is all you ever did then I'd expect anyone to be just below breakeven at best. Don't think any of these charts give any real insight yet, for me it's all just a phase of collecting live market experience. Any current strategy talk will most likely be obsolete once you crack it anyway.

For what it's worth back in 2014 (my first year) I needed 3000+ markets worth of experience to even start profiting, with a mix of football and racing. To crack it after just 350 markets you would truly be G.O.A.T.

You probably make that easily in a week nowadays...(automation/semi-automation)

[Kai]

You probably make that easily in a week nowadays...(automation/semi-automation)

Make what?

Isn't he trading full manual?

[goat68]

not sure how best to put this. i may be reading that chart incorrectly, or the uderlaying stategy may not be obvious. to me, that graph shows a slow spiral of death. if you look at the peaks above ZERO versus the noise below ZERO, you can see that there's a strong negative bias.

can you explain why you fell this is breakeven, other than having clawed back from a losing position to just below breakeven??

sorry if this sounds negative and down on the graph, just find it hard to see that and want to embrace it

Oh and to answer your question! To be only £5 down after 5 weeks and about 350 markets, is good enough breakeven for me !

If 350 markets total is all you ever did then I'd expect anyone to be just below breakeven at best. Don't think any of these charts give any real insight yet, for me it's all just a phase of collecting live market experience. Any current strategy talk will most likely be obsolete once you crack it anyway.

For what it's worth back in 2014 (my first year) I needed 3000+ markets worth of experience to even start profiting, with a mix of football and racing. To crack it after just 350 markets you would truly be G.O.A.T.

I agree, just trying to answer jimibt's negative vibes...!

[jimibt]

Oh and to answer your question! To be only £5 down after 5 weeks and about 350 markets, is good enough breakeven for me !

If 350 markets total is all you ever did then I'd expect anyone to be just below breakeven at best. Don't think any of these charts give any real insight yet, for me it's all just a phase of collecting live market experience. Any current strategy talk will most likely be obsolete once you crack it anyway.

For what it's worth back in 2014 (my first year) I needed 3000+ markets worth of experience to even start profiting, with a mix of football and racing. To crack it after just 350 markets you would truly be G.O.A.T.

I agree, just trying to answer jimibt's negative vibes...!

lol... i think they were constructive (or at least intended to be). my point is (and was highlighted by kai), a small sample will not give you insight into the path fwd. also, if you presented that graph as an indication of progress, then I'd say that the earlier trades were showing smaller variance and a more positive trajectory. you have arrived at a breakeven point after a very turbulent negative phase, that was my quandary really.

I know it can read as -ve, that's not my objective, i'm just trying to understand more the graph's guiding principles.

[Kai]

Don't think Jimbo was trying to be a negative Nancy and suggesting that you were going backwards I'm sure he agrees that the first 300 markets are less important than the next 3000 markets, so I wouldn't be reading too much into that.

And I think Mr Fox was saying you can collect 3000 markets inside a week, but I don't see how that is relevant to a manual trader, it's not like you can absorb this experience somehow via the auto route.

[spreadbetting]

Think the last thing Jimbo wants to be is some kind of Nancy, he'd be chased off the forum.

[wearthefoxhat]

You probably make that easily in a week nowadays...(automation/semi-automation)

Make what?

Isn't he trading full manual?

I meant you (Kai)

[Kai]

You probably make that easily in a week nowadays...(automation/semi-automation)

Make what?

Isn't he trading full manual?

I meant you (Kai)

Thereabouts maybe I don't mind PMing you my 3 month P&L shortly, but not using any automation yet, my friend is still the guinea pig until I get over my irrational fears about auto

But my point is, I think Mr Goat is doing as well as can be expected at this point, as long as he's collecting valuable market experience and actively working on important aspects of trading (like managing losses) I think he's moving in the right direction.

Imagine if he were to crack it eventually, with the help of the forum, what a triumph that would be, and a lift for everyone, including the lurkers Bet Angel subscriptions would be selling like candy as well, there can never be enough success stories.

[jimibt]

Think the last thing Jimbo wants to be is some kind of Nancy, he'd be chased off the forum.

reminds me of the great episode from 'Allo 'Allo (The Funeral) https://www.dailymotion.com/video/x6sg3h6

there is a classic one liner where Rene alludes to a fictional twin brother (to the SS). When asked where he comes from, he says "Nantes, we are both Nantes boys"

lovely play on words -lol

[wearthefoxhat]

Make what?

Isn't he trading full manual?

I meant you (Kai)

Thereabouts maybe I don't mind PMing you my 3 month P&L shortly, but not using any automation yet, my friend is still the guinea pig until I get over my irrational fears about auto

But my point is, I think Mr Goat is doing as well as can be expected at this point, as long as he's collecting valuable market experience and actively working on important aspects of trading (like managing losses) I think he's moving in the right direction.

Imagine if he were to crack it eventually, with the help of the forum, what a triumph that would be, and a lift for everyone, including the lurkers Bet Angel subscriptions would be selling like candy as well, there can never be enough success stories.

Yep, there's an inherent need in all of us to see others succeed/try to succeed and try to help in our own way.

Some of the lurkers will want this too, but maybe have nothing to add, as a lot of ground has already been covered in the thread already. (maybe not the psychopath types)

No need to send any Pnl's by PM, my spidey senses already feel you know the time of day.

[Kai]

Yep, there's an inherent need in all of us to see others succeed/try to succeed and try to help in our own way.

Some of the lurkers will want this too, but maybe have nothing to add, as a lot of ground has already been covered in the thread already. (maybe not the psychopath types)

No need to send any Pnl's by PM, my spidey senses already feel you know the time of day.

No worries, already sent it, included a fresh Psychoff 3month P&L as well just for fun, you may find it a bit more interesting

And yep, we do want Mr Goat to succeed The more the merrier.