Trading What I see !?

[alexmr2]

What not to do lay a steamer!!

Can't seem to get loss exit strategy right:
If I cut early I get lots of small losses that out way the fewer larger wins..
If I try and do a managed exit I still end up with one that ends in a huge loss!

I've been through this scenario many times, something either looks weak (drifting or levelled out) and then the full blown reversal or steam down comes late and just doesn't retrace and I'm sitting there watching it as it goes lower and lower into the red. Contrary to this a favourite can look like an "obvious steamer", (the previous favourite just won which adds to my opinion) so I back it and then a couple of minutes to post it bounces like a clown's bouncy ball and goes up and up and up

I think the key is to first work on getting a good entry, learn how the market moves and don't enter somewhere where your stoploss is a red bus away which will either throw you out or leave you with a big loss. You then have to get used to cutting the loss short if you are wrong and move on. It takes a very long time to accept that your opinion is wrong (in fact even some good traders only have 50% strike rate and spend half the day scratching). I was told this 2 years ago and still struggle to think in probabilities and the long term sometimes, we just naturally always want to be right. Trading is very emotionally testing even to patient and mathematically thinking non-gamblers

[alexmr2]

do you maybe think that too many hours spent at the computer are burning you out?

I think when you are learning it is difficult to trade the whole day into the evening races without a break, often I would lose my days profit in the evening ones which can behave differently and this can lead to loss chasing and frustration after you getting burned out. For me 3-4 hours is good and I can always have little breaks inbetween on the poorer quality races

[jimibt]

A lot of views on here are if you don't know how to manual trade, you'll struggle to automate...as what profitable strategy are you going to use?

ok, I'll chuck in with something that MAY unfortunately tie you to BA again but in a different way . If you learn the market mecahnics (both PRE and IP), then you will be able to at least TRY to exploit some sort mid level automation ideas.

Here's a simple little starter that won't make you any money off the bat, but is worth thinking about what it entails (you'd see this if you collected raw data):

1. In play - track the book percentage of the martket
2. When it goes above 115%, examine the runners whose odds have widened to form a HUGE spread
3. You'll very quickly realise that the affected runners are the two that are in close contention
4. Look for the SIZE of the gaps on both those runners
5. Note the rate at which both gaps decrease
6. Finally - repeat this process on lots of races

What you'll discover is that you can bebefit from this by effectively figuring out (50-60%) of the time how to lay the current fave when it is in the EVENS odds area (and when the rondula is in motion). This is a combo of analysis, trial and error and appreciating how to deal with the delay imposed by the excange.

Anyway, I said it was a starter but is such a good excercise in getting really acquainted with the market mechanics.

anyway, have a grt weekend all -cookathon night - l8r

Jim,

Thanks for that little tip, may just delve back into automation on the back of that

this and about half a dozen (MAX) other mechanical interactions make up my entire strategy base. of course, there are degress of MIX among them, but by and large, the market churns them out daily... harvesting raw data is one of the key ways to observe and make sense of this, along with physical screen recordings...

pick 'n mix!

[goat68]

I'm going to just watch some races the next couple of weeks, I've got an idea of what I might want to automate. My persona is too emotional, so I just can't stick to it manual trading, hopefully automation will help if I can achieve what I want...
Thanks everyone

[jimibt]

I'm going to just watch some races the next couple of weeks, I've got an idea of what I might want to automate. My persona is too emotional, so I just can't stick to it manual trading, hopefully automation will help if I can achieve what I want...
Thanks everyone

mr goat, i'm exactly the same -too emotionally invested, that's why i targetted automation early on. i blew a few banks on manual and also found that i was too involved in the outcomes and chased the losses etc, etc.

like yourself, from an IT background (.net developer), so the lightbulb moment came when i looked at what skills i DID have -it certainly wasn't manual trading. flip to raw data and screen recordings and passively participate in the markets by analysing the data and look for patterns and anomalies -you'll find a rich (if densely populated) seam to mine.

[Anbell]

I'm going to just watch some races the next couple of weeks, I've got an idea of what I might want to automate. My persona is too emotional, so I just can't stick to it manual trading, hopefully automation will help if I can achieve what I want...
Thanks everyone

mr goat, i'm exactly the same -too emotionally invested, that's why i targetted automation early on. i blew a few banks on manual and also found that i was too involved in the outcomes and chased the losses etc, etc.

like yourself, from an IT background (.net developer), so the lightbulb moment came when i looked at what skills i DID have -it certainly wasn't manual trading. flip to raw data and screen recordings and passively participate in the markets by analysing the data and look for patterns and anomalies -you'll find a rich (if densely populated) seam to mine.

jimibt is always wise and right.

Also, before you check out, Mr Goat, I suggest you build a couple of simple bots, now, around some ideas that you might have, and run them with minimum stakes. Otherwise in a few weeks time you'll wish that you'd tested those ideas, and had a couple of extra weeks data to interrogate, and build from.

[jamesg46]

I'm going to just watch some races the next couple of weeks, I've got an idea of what I might want to automate. My persona is too emotional, so I just can't stick to it manual trading, hopefully automation will help if I can achieve what I want...
Thanks everyone

Two common traits among traders and I've noticed these mentioned time and time again throughout the forum, data & recording.

With the data you're collecting historical behavior, yesterday for example Peter posted in the Today's Racing Thread that there was a run of short priced fav's that had lost. He wasn't wasting his time typing out a meaningless observation & if you go back to the data it would of recorded how people behaved on the next fav, once their previous bet or trade had lost. You may have noticed that LeTiss had commented about Martingale & later Peter made a comment that the run had come to an end. I'm currently sat re watching how people reacted and how their behavior influenced the price action, i'm also re watching how i responded.

The markets are emotional behavior, yours and mine. Sequence of events occur that trigger predictable reactions... don't walk away because you feel you can't handle the emotions, learn them, recognise them, trade them. The alternatives are to give up living in fear of yourself.

[darchas]

... don't walk away because you feel you can't handle the emotions, learn them, recognise them, trade them. The alternatives are to give up living in fear of yourself.

Trading is a pursuit/endeavour/interest like any other. There's no shame in giving something a go and deciding it's not for you. Everyone is different, it's just where your own interest lies. I banged my head against a brick wall for 3 years trading before I started to make some headway, this wasn't because of some noble feat of facing my fears, just that I had a passion for it and an interest, all my adult life I've spent around gambling on horses and football and so I had a deep interest in it all. Compare that to playing guitar, I've never got beyond a very basic level and that's just because I haven't got the passion to see me through the grind of practicing and the long apprenticeship. That's fine. I can play piano well because it interested me and I kept it up.

Point being we can't all persevere and get good at everything, that's just the way of the world. Goat, take a break and if that passion is there you'll come back to it, if not and you never trade again that's fine too and there's no shame whatsoever in that.

[jamesg46]

... don't walk away because you feel you can't handle the emotions, learn them, recognise them, trade them. The alternatives are to give up living in fear of yourself.

Trading is a pursuit/endeavour/interest like any other. There's no shame in giving something a go and deciding it's not for you. Everyone is different, it's just where your own interest lies. I banged my head against a brick wall for 3 years trading before I started to make some headway, this wasn't because of some noble feat of facing my fears, just that I had a passion for it and an interest, all my adult life I've spent around gambling on horses and football and so I had a deep interest in it all. Compare that to playing guitar, I've never got beyond a very basic level and that's just because I haven't got the passion to see me through the grind of practicing and the long apprenticeship. That's fine. I can play piano well because it interested me and I kept it up.

Point being we can't all persevere and get good at everything, that's just the way of the world. Goat, take a break and if that passion is there you'll come back to it, if not and you never trade again that's fine too and there's no shame whatsoever in that.

My reply didn't come from a perception of goat's level of interest but you're right. My reply was based on goat's problem with his emotion.

"I'm going to just watch some races the next couple of weeks, I've got an idea of what I might want to automate. My persona is too emotional, so I just can't stick to it manual trading, hopefully automation will help if I can achieve what I want...
Thanks everyone"

He's already back, so he took taking a break off of the table himself, I just wanted to point out that emotions can be a positive thing because they play out in the markets & if he faces them in terms of seeing them then he can trade off of the back of others who don't take the time to do so.

[Kai]

My reply didn't come from a perception of goat's level of interest but you're right. My reply was based on goat's problem with his emotion.

But this is what I keep telling people, I don't actually think he has a problem with his emotions, any more so than the rest of us. I mean, does he cry at weddings? Or sobs uncontrollably when his dog dies or something?

I have seen the same movie so many times now both from up close and from afar, that I feel it mostly boils down to initial expectations which dictate everything else and the whole approach, because everyone starting out has certain expectations and when they are not met and are too far from reality then it's much easier to get impatient and emotional and go on a tilt, which apparently for many this means "oh well game over, I guess I'll try some automation then since I'm obviously useless at manual trading because I'm such an emotional diva", but for me this is just foreplay and where the real journey/learning starts, I think everyone needs to experience at least one tilt, to move past that. How can anyone become a success if they don't even experience any adversity or negative emotion?

The simple fact is that trading without an edge is akin to mental torture, especially in a competitive market driven by psychology and speculation, couldn't have honestly picked the worst market to start from imho.

And the other hard cold fact is that there's no real shortcut here, deep hard work simply has to be done at some point whether that's sooner or later, but you can't just throw countless hours at trading and expect superficial approaches to instantly work, that could take forever, the hours invested have to be quality hours to have a decent chance of that first breakthrough (which is the most difficult one). There is no real way around it, the trading puzzle simply has to be solved in order to profit.

This bigass thread can be a double-edged sword at times as well, you do get some proper advice and more importantly encouragement when you open yourself to constructive criticism etc, but you also get conflicting suggestions and invite additional pressure because you don't want to disappoint people and waste their time and efforts or seem like a failure.

[Kai]

Can't seem to get loss exit strategy right:
If I cut early I get lots of small losses that out way the fewer larger wins..
If I try and do a managed exit I still end up with one that ends in a huge loss!

Regarding losses, the good old tried and tested FTSIO strategy still works pretty well for me, always happy to share that one (NSFW version) : https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5FjWe31 ... l=FFStudio

i blew a few banks on manual and also found that i was too involved in the outcomes and chased the losses etc, etc.

I think literally everyone does that to start with, it's human psychology at its most default setting? I blew a big chunk myself and needed a step back to learn the necessary lessons. My expectations, like everyone else's, were all over the place and I had to drastically adjust them in order to continue.

The market is not going to cough up profit every time you politely ask, you have to forcefully pry it from its dead cold hands. If you're going to attack a particular market you have to expect that it's going to fight back, that should never come as a surprise and yet people keep being surprised by that despite all of the disclaimers and warnings about that.

Some of these idioms aren't too suited for trading, since it's not a good idea to personalize it too much because you're mostly battling your own self and not the market, but you know what I mean

[jamesg46]

My reply didn't come from a perception of goat's level of interest but you're right. My reply was based on goat's problem with his emotion.

But this is what I keep telling people, I don't actually think he has a problem with his emotions, any more so than the rest of us. I mean, does he cry at weddings? Or sobs uncontrollably when his dog dies or something?

I have seen the same movie so many times now both from up close and from afar, that I feel it mostly boils down to initial expectations which dictate everything else and the whole approach, because everyone starting out has certain expectations and when they are not met and are too far from reality then it's much easier to get impatient and emotional and go on a tilt, which apparently for many this means "oh well game over, I guess I'll try some automation then since I'm obviously useless at manual trading because I'm such an emotional diva", but for me this is just foreplay and where the real journey/learning starts, I think everyone needs to experience at least one tilt, to move past that. How can anyone become a success if they don't even experience any adversity or negative emotion?

The simple fact is that trading without an edge is akin to mental torture, especially in a competitive market driven by psychology and speculation, couldn't have honestly picked the worst market to start from imho.

And the other hard cold fact is that there's no real shortcut here, deep hard work simply has to be done at some point whether that's sooner or later, but you can't just throw countless hours at trading and expect superficial approaches to instantly work, that could take forever, the hours invested have to be quality hours to have a decent chance of that first breakthrough (which is the most difficult one). There is no real way around it, the trading puzzle simply has to be solved in order to profit.

This bigass thread can be a double-edged sword at times as well, you do get some proper advice and more importantly encouragement when you open yourself to constructive criticism etc, but you also get conflicting suggestions and invite additional pressure because you don't want to disappoint people and waste their time and efforts or seem like a failure.

I have no idea how emotional goat is, I took his words litrally and just wanted to highlight to him that those emotions he feels are just part of trading.... if he watches them, he can trade them, sort of like being one step ahead of yourself and an insight as to why some things happen.

I agree about expectations, I've set myself up time and time again.

Regarding losses, the good old tried and tested FTSIO strategy still works pretty well for me, always happy to share that one (NSFW version) : https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5FjWe31 ... l=FFStudio

[goat68]

So I've loaded up another £100...
And given a few markets a go today, and one thing that really sticks out is the smallest moves are in the direction you expect, the largest moves are in totally unexpected directions!!
I know some of you have stated before that I should trust my judgement, however my judgement is based on what the market is telling me, and I am pretty sure the market wants to screw me over!! So in that respect I ought to fool the market and trade in the opposite direction to what I think it's telling me.......!

[goat68]

No I'm wrong, Mr.Market is looking over my shoulder so either way it knows how to screw me over.....!

[to75ne]

So I've loaded up another £100...
And given a few markets a go today, and one thing that really sticks out is the smallest moves are in the direction you expect, the largest moves are in totally unexpected directions!!
I know some of you have stated before that I should trust my judgement, however my judgement is based on what the market is telling me, and I am pretty sure the market wants to screw me over!! So in that respect I ought to fool the market and trade in the opposite direction to what I think it's telling me.......!

Sundays are not best days to trade especially if you are not capable of trading effectively over any meaningful time span.

coincidently I was looking on ytube today (watching old footage of jimmy greaves), and in the list of recommended videos was a new upload form betangel. You should have a look at it, it could almost be mr webb replying to this fred (i doubt it, just a coincidence i reckon.)