Trading What I see !?

[goat68]

For what it's worth back in 2014 (my first year) I needed 3000+ markets worth of experience to even start profiting, with a mix of football and racing.

It would be interesting to hear how many markets it usually takes manual pre-off traders, it is something that I rarely see discussed but seem to remember a poll on here where the majority had voted it took 10,000+ markets. From the very little profitable traders I have heard of they said it took them around 2-3 years.

I have traded around 10,000 races over the last 2 years (almost every day) and I still struggle to breakeven at the end of the week, even for me to get to lifetime breakeven would take a very long time. Mostly it is emotions holding me back after something goes wrong I can lose a few days profit from the classic mistakes of overstaking and chasing losses.

I also often wonder if nowadays it is harder to make it in pre-off because there are more traders with more experience (and more bots). I also have heard that post-covid markets without the spectators etc. are worse than usual but I'm not sure if that means harder to read or just lower liquidity?

I'm guessing that if most traders actually knew how long it was gonna take at the start, then a lot of them would have thought, "nah, stuff that"
Btw, I am 8.5k races in and 71 weeks spent and I am just at small consistent profit stage. I cannot scale up much it seems for fear of implosion
Also, I see no difference in pre and post covid tbh

Just to set everyone's expectations, if around Xmas time I don't seem to have made at least some identifiable progress for me, then I will throw in the towel at that point, as I've got better things to do if this is never going to work out for me. So that's around 2,000 markets probably.
I know some of you will say 2,000 is not enough, well then so be it, it's definitely not worth the return of investment in what would be at least 2-3 years of torture!!!

[auto-matt]

Goat do you record your days trading?

[Anbell]

Just to set everyone's expectations, if around Xmas time I don't seem to have made at least some identifiable progress for me, then I will throw in the towel at that point, as I've got better things to do if this is never going to work out for me. So that's around 2,000 markets probably.
I know some of you will say 2,000 is not enough, well then so be it, it's definitely not worth the return of investment in what would be at least 2-3 years of torture!!!

Have you defined " some identifiable progress"?

This forum will be much poorer without all the advice you've been given.

[goat68]

Just to set everyone's expectations, if around Xmas time I don't seem to have made at least some identifiable progress for me, then I will throw in the towel at that point, as I've got better things to do if this is never going to work out for me. So that's around 2,000 markets probably.
I know some of you will say 2,000 is not enough, well then so be it, it's definitely not worth the return of investment in what would be at least 2-3 years of torture!!!

Have you defined " some identifiable progress"?

This forum will be much poorer without all the advice you've been given.

So yes, a variety of things, but as ever with this game, it's a bit subjective! :
- Hopefully seeing more positive expectancy results from my methods
- A real feeling I am starting to be able to read what is happening, and not what I want to happen

At the moment I am sort of trading with a gut feeling of what I think is about to happen based on experience, and at the same time reduce losses
I'm not sure my 'gut' is making the right decisions at the moment

[Kai]

Just to set everyone's expectations, if around Xmas time I don't seem to have made at least some identifiable progress for me, then I will throw in the towel at that point, as I've got better things to do if this is never going to work out for me. So that's around 2,000 markets probably.
I know some of you will say 2,000 is not enough, well then so be it, it's definitely not worth the return of investment in what would be at least 2-3 years of torture!!!

A bit early to go down that rabbit hole I think.

Doesn't a college degree on average take 6 years for people? For an average paying job? And people still go for it.

Since trading is potentially one of the higher paying jobs, if not one of the highest, you could make an argument that investing a couple of years in it would be considered a relatively cheap investment. And yet people treat it as a little casual hobby on the side and expect insta-success because they're used to instant gratification.

But traditional education can't and won't really help you with that, since it doesn't teach you how to assess risk in general and manage your money properly, so teachers can't teach you how to be successful because they're not successful themselves, they're just the spokesperson for the traditional education system and only teaching you the basics so that you can serve the society better.

You have to seek out alternative education, and the curriculum is what you make of it, you have to practically create your own since what's out there is not enough.

I may troll around on the forum out of boredom or fun, but I take my trading seriously. If you're passionate enough about trading and want to build your life around it, then it should only be a matter of time.

[goat68]

Just to set everyone's expectations, if around Xmas time I don't seem to have made at least some identifiable progress for me, then I will throw in the towel at that point, as I've got better things to do if this is never going to work out for me. So that's around 2,000 markets probably.
I know some of you will say 2,000 is not enough, well then so be it, it's definitely not worth the return of investment in what would be at least 2-3 years of torture!!!

A bit early to go down that rabbit hole I think.

Doesn't a college degree on average take 6 years for people? For an average paying job? And people still go for it.

Since trading is potentially one of the higher paying jobs, if not one of the highest, you could make an argument that investing a couple of years in it would be considered a relatively cheap investment. And yet people treat it as a little casual hobby on the side and expect insta-success because they're used to instant gratification.

But traditional education can't and won't really help you with that, since it doesn't teach you how to assess risk in general and manage your money properly, so teachers can't teach you how to be successful because they're not successful themselves, they're just the spokesperson for the traditional education system and only teaching you the basics so that you can serve the society better.

You have to seek out alternative education, and the curriculum is what you make of it, you have to practically create your own since what's out there is not enough.

I may troll around on the forum out of boredom or fun, but I take my trading seriously. If you're passionate enough about trading and want to build your life around it, then it should only be a matter of time.

So a few things:
- I did say if I don't feel like I've made progress, akin to learning something in your first term at college Or not !!
- personal situation comes into it as well, I have a main job in IT, I want to do this as a sideline income. It would never replace my main job income. If my situation won't fit then, unfortunately so be it

[Naffman]

Just to set everyone's expectations, if around Xmas time I don't seem to have made at least some identifiable progress for me, then I will throw in the towel at that point, as I've got better things to do if this is never going to work out for me. So that's around 2,000 markets probably.
I know some of you will say 2,000 is not enough, well then so be it, it's definitely not worth the return of investment in what would be at least 2-3 years of torture!!!

A bit early to go down that rabbit hole I think.

Doesn't a college degree on average take 6 years for people? For an average paying job? And people still go for it.

Since trading is potentially one of the higher paying jobs, if not one of the highest, you could make an argument that investing a couple of years in it would be considered a relatively cheap investment. And yet people treat it as a little casual hobby on the side and expect insta-success because they're used to instant gratification.

But traditional education can't and won't really help you with that, since it doesn't teach you how to assess risk in general and manage your money properly, so teachers can't teach you how to be successful because they're not successful themselves, they're just the spokesperson for the traditional education system and only teaching you the basics so that you can serve the society better.

You have to seek out alternative education, and the curriculum is what you make of it, you have to practically create your own since what's out there is not enough.

I may troll around on the forum out of boredom or fun, but I take my trading seriously. If you're passionate enough about trading and want to build your life around it, then it should only be a matter of time.

So a few things:
- I did say if I don't feel like I've made progress, akin to learning something in your first term at college Or not !!
- personal situation comes into it as well, I have a main job in IT, I want to do this as a sideline income. It would never replace my main job income. If my situation won't fit then, unfortunately so be it

No offence but it seems like your heart isn't in it - its a non starter if that's the case

[goat68]

A bit early to go down that rabbit hole I think.

Doesn't a college degree on average take 6 years for people? For an average paying job? And people still go for it.

Since trading is potentially one of the higher paying jobs, if not one of the highest, you could make an argument that investing a couple of years in it would be considered a relatively cheap investment. And yet people treat it as a little casual hobby on the side and expect insta-success because they're used to instant gratification.

But traditional education can't and won't really help you with that, since it doesn't teach you how to assess risk in general and manage your money properly, so teachers can't teach you how to be successful because they're not successful themselves, they're just the spokesperson for the traditional education system and only teaching you the basics so that you can serve the society better.

You have to seek out alternative education, and the curriculum is what you make of it, you have to practically create your own since what's out there is not enough.

I may troll around on the forum out of boredom or fun, but I take my trading seriously. If you're passionate enough about trading and want to build your life around it, then it should only be a matter of time.

So a few things:
- I did say if I don't feel like I've made progress, akin to learning something in your first term at college Or not !!
- personal situation comes into it as well, I have a main job in IT, I want to do this as a sideline income. It would never replace my main job income. If my situation won't fit then, unfortunately so be it

No offence but it seems like your heart isn't in it - its a non starter if that's the case

No worries, fair comment.
As I've always indicated I only want to be honest, for the moment I am pushing hard forward...I'm reading lots, and watching videos lots.......

[goat68]

A bit early to go down that rabbit hole I think.

Doesn't a college degree on average take 6 years for people? For an average paying job? And people still go for it.

Since trading is potentially one of the higher paying jobs, if not one of the highest, you could make an argument that investing a couple of years in it would be considered a relatively cheap investment. And yet people treat it as a little casual hobby on the side and expect insta-success because they're used to instant gratification.

But traditional education can't and won't really help you with that, since it doesn't teach you how to assess risk in general and manage your money properly, so teachers can't teach you how to be successful because they're not successful themselves, they're just the spokesperson for the traditional education system and only teaching you the basics so that you can serve the society better.

You have to seek out alternative education, and the curriculum is what you make of it, you have to practically create your own since what's out there is not enough.

I may troll around on the forum out of boredom or fun, but I take my trading seriously. If you're passionate enough about trading and want to build your life around it, then it should only be a matter of time.

So a few things:
- I did say if I don't feel like I've made progress, akin to learning something in your first term at college Or not !!
- personal situation comes into it as well, I have a main job in IT, I want to do this as a sideline income. It would never replace my main job income. If my situation won't fit then, unfortunately so be it

No offence but it seems like your heart isn't in it - its a non starter if that's the case

You make an interesting side point though, and that's psychological mindset

[auto-matt]

By putting a number on it doesn’t mean it’s going to magically click once that number has been reached, Trading 2,000 live markets is far less beneficial than trading 1,000 markets that have been recorded and reviewed, you will miss out on so much in real time due to inexperience, quality not quantity

[Kai]

I am pushing hard forward...I'm reading lots, and watching videos lots.......

That can help, but most of the progress will come from your own ladder and from your own work, not that of others.

[wearthefoxhat]

I am pushing hard forward...I'm reading lots, and watching videos lots.......

That can help, but most of the progress will come from your own ladder and from your own work, not that of others.

In my experience it's good to develop a couple of strings to your bow. (strings=other sports, bow= trading portfolio)

What might be break even on horse racing (pre) might work well on football (pre).

Watch this (Peter Webb) video again and listen carefully to the beginning and, when the video starts showing examples, @4.58 onwards, watch his entry points and observe the other runners on the ladder too. (don't tell anyone cos they'll all be doing it) Worth re-watching a few times.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=q6eN7u326TI

[alexmr2]

If your heart is in this and you are persistent it should work eventually but IMO the xmas goal is unrealistic (I wish someone had told me that). I started on the horses around this time in 2018 and had a goal to be profitable by new year 2019 because it just seemed around the corner after the help and videos I'd been shown by a pro it made it look easy

Never mind new year 2019, I was still losing money new year 2020, and another 9 months later today it's still the same. Bearing in mind this is me trading 7 days a week with only a couple of days off a month, rewatching my trades and watching videos most nights, rereading books like trading in the zone and having lots of guidance and live trading calls with a pro trader. I have definitely made progress but my P&L hasn't with a lifetime of something around -£8k from only using £100 banks and a lot of practice mode.

I'm not trying to be negative and there are many different ways to trade but I'm saying my experience because I wouldn't want you to lose the same money as I have or to think it can be done in a year or two even if you make it your life

Professional, consistent, manual trading isn't really a profitable sidehustle or a hobby, there isn't much middle ground so it's like saying you would study for years to become a lawyer or surgeon only to do it at weekends (and charge £100-200 an hour) but then work all week on your day job at say £15 an hour

[goat68]

By putting a number on it doesn’t mean it’s going to magically click once that number has been reached, Trading 2,000 live markets is far less beneficial than trading 1,000 markets that have been recorded and reviewed, you will miss out on so much in real time due to inexperience, quality not quantity

Yes agree.
I just spent a very careful bit of quality experience trading, and just got it totally wrong!!
My very words when I traded out for a loss, was "For **** sake why is it doing that?!"

[goat68]

If your heart is in this and you are persistent it should work eventually but IMO the xmas goal is unrealistic (I wish someone had told me that). I started on the horses around this time in 2018 and had a goal to be profitable by new year 2019 because it just seemed around the corner after the help and videos I'd been shown by a pro it made it look easy

Never mind new year 2019, I was still losing money new year 2020, and another 9 months later today it's still the same. Bearing in mind this is me trading 7 days a week with only a couple of days off a month, rewatching my trades and watching videos most nights, rereading books like trading in the zone and having lots of guidance and live trading calls with a pro trader. I have definitely made progress but my P&L hasn't with a lifetime of something around -£8k from only using £100 banks and a lot of practice mode.

I'm not trying to be negative and there are many different ways to trade but I'm saying my experience because I wouldn't want you to lose the same money as I have or to think it can be done in a year or two even if you make it your life

Professional, consistent, manual trading isn't really a profitable sidehustle or a hobby, there isn't much middle ground so it's like saying you would study for years to become a lawyer or surgeon only to do it at weekends (and charge £100-200 an hour) but then work all week on your day job at say £15 an hour

Appreciate your input, and you somewhat scare me, 2 years on and you've lost £8k and still losing, blimey!
I can tell you once I lose my current bank I am done, and you've just reinforced that decision.

I would like to point out a huge discrepancy here, what is it that Peter Webb knows that us lot don't?! It scares me when I saw one of his recent videos where he quoted his last week's Premium Charge figure, It was £1667 at 40%, so at a rough guess say Peter is 10% efficient, that's £1667 for 30% net profit, that's £5.6k he made in one week!!!!!