Do you fully hedge or leave a portion run?

[alexmr2]

I seem to recall that order-flow trading and value betting should be kept separate, but I'm curious if a situation comes up where you perceive to have an obvious value bet at SP do you leave a small portion run?

Personally I have only experimented with this on a very small scale to avoid overexposing myself and keep my pre-race results consistent. I no longer bother to calculate where I think the true odds should be manually because it took too long but I believe value can be spotted in other ways (if there's a bigger price discrepancy). Of course, what I perceive to be value may be totally wrong

An example of when I would do this could be when there appears to be an overreaction on a big drifter, I back it at 9.0 when I think it should come back down but it continues up to 10.0 at the off. I have a belief that the tissue price should be 6.0 so I let some of the position run because I believe there is more value in letting it run than hedging the position at 10.0. I once read that if you miss the full SP hedge then there is more value in letting it run than taking an in-play price because the value is already gone. Another situation might be that I believe I have establised a back position around the "smart money" and will let a small portion run along with it but never exposing myself to a full-on loss which wipes out the whole day

[Derek27]

I seem to recall that order-flow trading and value betting should be kept separate, but I'm curious if a situation comes up where you perceive to have an obvious value bet at SP do you leave a small portion run?

Personally I have only experimented with this on a very small scale to avoid overexposing myself and keep my pre-race results consistent. I no longer bother to calculate where I think the true odds should be manually because it took too long but I believe value can be spotted in other ways (if there's a bigger price discrepancy). Of course, what I perceive to be value may be totally wrong

An example of when I would do this could be when there appears to be an overreaction on a big drifter, I back it at 9.0 when I think it should come back down but it continues up to 10.0 at the off. I have a belief that the tissue price should be 6.0 so I let some of the position run because I believe there is more value in letting it run than hedging the position at 10.0. I once read that if you miss the full SP hedge then there is more value in letting it run than taking an in-play price because the value is already gone. Another situation might be that I believe I have establised a back position around the "smart money" and will let a small portion run along with it but never exposing myself to a full-on loss which wipes out the whole day

I don't agree with the advice never mix trading and betting, it only applies to 98% of people.

I started using Betfair as a punter and gradually made a transition to trading, which involved mixing the two, and it is difficult, like rubbing your stomach while patting your head. For some people the psychological effect of loss aversion may make them see value rather than cut their losses. For people more in control there is trading from a betting perspective, i.e. backing a horse at 10.0, it gets backed down to 4.0 and you think it's way under value and it's prudent to lay. You can also keep your bets and trades completely separate with different accounts.

The situation you describe in your post is feasible but it has difficulties. If you place a £250 back bet and decide you'd like to close 80% of the trade and let £50 run as a back bet, it's not a single click on the ladder, you'd need to adjust your stake or use automation/servants. Then there's the limited time in decision-making managing both your trading and betting. And finally, accounting becomes quite complexed in deciding after a few split-second decisions how much profit or loss to apportion to betting and trading.

[alexmr2]

Thank you for the reply. Sometimes when I think something is at a point of value and then moves against me it's frustrating to take the loss before it going to SP, but I should know better that profitable trading is all about taking those small losses

It makes sense not to do this at the stage I'm at otherwise my P&L will be all over the place and there will be no way of knowing whether I am having success with it or not. I need to keep things as consistent as possible

[Vovsen]

The situation you describe in your post is feasible but it has difficulties. If you place a £250 back bet and decide you'd like to close 80% of the trade and let £50 run as a back bet, it's not a single click on the ladder, you'd need to adjust your stake or use automation/servants.

I am trying to figure out how to automate this partial hedging with a guardian bot, but without success so far.

If I use the Close trade on selection rule, I for example have 15euro green on one selection, and 0 on the others. But I would like it to hedge 70% of the 15euro and letting the rest run as a back bet.

Can anyone recommend a way of doing this or perhaps there is already a template bot I have missed?

[Crazyskier]

profitable trading is all about taking those small losses

This is probably the hardest lesson I learned and the one that took longest to learn over many years trying to master dog trading.

CS

[Derek27]

The situation you describe in your post is feasible but it has difficulties. If you place a £250 back bet and decide you'd like to close 80% of the trade and let £50 run as a back bet, it's not a single click on the ladder, you'd need to adjust your stake or use automation/servants.

I am trying to figure out how to automate this partial hedging with a guardian bot, but without success so far.

If I use the Close trade on selection rule, I for example have 15euro green on one selection, and 0 on the others. But I would like it to hedge 70% of the 15euro and letting the rest run as a back bet.

Can anyone recommend a way of doing this or perhaps there is already a template bot I have missed?

You might get more joy starting a new thread in the automation section where more auto-traders will see your question.

[Anbell]

The situation you describe in your post is feasible but it has difficulties. If you place a £250 back bet and decide you'd like to close 80% of the trade and let £50 run as a back bet, it's not a single click on the ladder, you'd need to adjust your stake or use automation/servants.

I am trying to figure out how to automate this partial hedging with a guardian bot, but without success so far.

If I use the Close trade on selection rule, I for example have 15euro green on one selection, and 0 on the others. But I would like it to hedge 70% of the 15euro and letting the rest run as a back bet.

Can anyone recommend a way of doing this or perhaps there is already a template bot I have missed?

You can use SVs, either net stake or P&L, and multiply by a %