I used to think that the way to success with pre race trading was to be disciplined, accept losses, always red them up and very slowly my profit levels would increase.
Since sticking to that strategy I have traded 200 races using 40p stakes and am £26 down. I seem to only win about 55-60% of each trade so clearly my overall losses are higher than my overall wins. Question is should I be aiming for a higher win percentage - is 55-60% too low to be successful in the long run?
Obviously I need to work on reducing the amount I lose per race too.
To be honest I am feeling quite frustrated by progress given that I have finally cracked the ill discipline of chasing losses, jumping in without thinking etc. I just dont see how the good guys seem to only lose about 3 or 4 races out of 20.
Help!
Disciplined but no consistency
Hi Redbrix
Welcome to the biggest mind game of them all. Think chess or should i say CHESS.
Being disciplined (whatever that actually means. Check out Ming Wongs blog for his thoughts on it)is not the way to success. It is merely one of the many skills you will need to master.
If you have mastered this, put it in your toolbox and move on to the next discipline.
Suppose I was interviewing you for a pre race trading job and asked the following questions... (how would you answer them)
1. what is the average difference in the over round between say The Derby and a 16 runner class 6 handicap at kelso on a monday. And at what level would you ideally time your entry?
2. how do you a)identify whether a race is more suited to scalping or prime swinging material and b) likely to have flip/flopping favourites?
3. how does, or can, the result of a previous race affect the movement of odds in a following race?
4. Describe your best case scenario (conditions) for entering a trade and exiting. If you cannot answer this comprehensively, you have found the biggest single reason so far for your frustrations. ie you don't know what to do to move forward with your learning.
5. How much of your time do you spend just watching and making notes on what you see on the screen. Eliminate the pressure to WIN or NOT LOSE, sit back, make a cuppa, record screen activity, think, review, talk to yourself and enjoy the learning process without feeling the need to participate. Then... you can learn to bring that 'non attachment' to your actual trading psyche.
Hope you find a little inspiration and a little bit more of the jigsaw shows itself to you.
Welcome to the biggest mind game of them all. Think chess or should i say CHESS.
Being disciplined (whatever that actually means. Check out Ming Wongs blog for his thoughts on it)is not the way to success. It is merely one of the many skills you will need to master.
If you have mastered this, put it in your toolbox and move on to the next discipline.
Suppose I was interviewing you for a pre race trading job and asked the following questions... (how would you answer them)
1. what is the average difference in the over round between say The Derby and a 16 runner class 6 handicap at kelso on a monday. And at what level would you ideally time your entry?
2. how do you a)identify whether a race is more suited to scalping or prime swinging material and b) likely to have flip/flopping favourites?
3. how does, or can, the result of a previous race affect the movement of odds in a following race?
4. Describe your best case scenario (conditions) for entering a trade and exiting. If you cannot answer this comprehensively, you have found the biggest single reason so far for your frustrations. ie you don't know what to do to move forward with your learning.
5. How much of your time do you spend just watching and making notes on what you see on the screen. Eliminate the pressure to WIN or NOT LOSE, sit back, make a cuppa, record screen activity, think, review, talk to yourself and enjoy the learning process without feeling the need to participate. Then... you can learn to bring that 'non attachment' to your actual trading psyche.
Hope you find a little inspiration and a little bit more of the jigsaw shows itself to you.
Thanks for the response Quinny. You have hit the nail bang on the head - I really dont know what to do to move forward with my learning. I dont seem to be learning too much by actually trading at the moment.
I think I will take your sound advice and just watch and record the markets for a week or so, taking notes as I go.
By the way I couldnt answer a single question, I would have failed the interview.
Please keep posting here as I dont seem to find info like that on any of the blogs I am following.
I think I will take your sound advice and just watch and record the markets for a week or so, taking notes as I go.
By the way I couldnt answer a single question, I would have failed the interview.
Please keep posting here as I dont seem to find info like that on any of the blogs I am following.
Recording and watching the markets without participating in them is great advice, you'll learn more if you're not involved yourself, as a lot of the time when you're trading you're thoughts can get so focused on how much you're making or losing etc rather than the markets in front of you. A lot of people talk about cutting losses immediately and in some situations this is neccessary, but in others it is the worse thing you can do. Say you place a lay order at 3.4 on tick outside the money, then it gets gobbled up by one large volume spike that takes the price immediately down to 3.1. If you get out down here you'll be robbing yourself as after a volume spike the market will most likely correct somewhat and go back up. This is an obvious example but there are many situations where you would be better off waiting for the market to come back and not chasing a price. Experience will tell you when you need to act and when you need to stay calm and wait. Unfortunately learning when you must get out and when you can wait does take time, so hang in there
First off let me congratulate you on developing the discipline of cutting losses! Most people who try trading of any kind fall at this first hurdle (excuse the pun), so you are already ahead of most who try and fail.
As I have posted on here in the past, there are 3 golden rules/disciplines which any trader must follow if he wishes to be consistantly profitable.
1) Cut losses
2) Let profits run
3) Trade selectivly
You have already mastered 1, now you must move on to no,s 2 and 3. For many people no 2 is harder than no 1 as it's the exact opposite. Cutting losses requires quick action, whereas letting profits run requires you to sit on your hands so to speak.
Something worth trying is to use the stoploss function on Betangel, as a trade goes into profit put a stoploss in at breakeven, this then becomes a "risk free trade" which may help you to stay in a profitable trade longer.
As others have suggested either recording your trading or taking screen shots on entry and exit, with notes about why you took a trade will help you to develope no 3, a more selective approach. The key here is LOW RISK, how much are you prepared to pay to find out whether a trade works or not? If the risk vs return ratio is high you don't need (won't get!) a high percentage of winners. If it's low you need (will get) a higher percentage of winners.
The 3 rules are like the legs on a 3 legged stool, which 1 is more important? until you have all 3 the structure will not be stable.
It may sound hard, but the good news is you have done the most important step, the first 1! As without cutting losses you won't stay in the game long enough to develope 2 and 3.
Steve
As I have posted on here in the past, there are 3 golden rules/disciplines which any trader must follow if he wishes to be consistantly profitable.
1) Cut losses
2) Let profits run
3) Trade selectivly
You have already mastered 1, now you must move on to no,s 2 and 3. For many people no 2 is harder than no 1 as it's the exact opposite. Cutting losses requires quick action, whereas letting profits run requires you to sit on your hands so to speak.
Something worth trying is to use the stoploss function on Betangel, as a trade goes into profit put a stoploss in at breakeven, this then becomes a "risk free trade" which may help you to stay in a profitable trade longer.
As others have suggested either recording your trading or taking screen shots on entry and exit, with notes about why you took a trade will help you to develope no 3, a more selective approach. The key here is LOW RISK, how much are you prepared to pay to find out whether a trade works or not? If the risk vs return ratio is high you don't need (won't get!) a high percentage of winners. If it's low you need (will get) a higher percentage of winners.
The 3 rules are like the legs on a 3 legged stool, which 1 is more important? until you have all 3 the structure will not be stable.
It may sound hard, but the good news is you have done the most important step, the first 1! As without cutting losses you won't stay in the game long enough to develope 2 and 3.
Steve
-
ndarlington
- Posts: 15
- Joined: Mon Aug 03, 2009 12:41 pm
Quinny wrote:Hi Redbrix
Welcome to the biggest mind game of them all. Think chess or should i say CHESS.
Being disciplined (whatever that actually means. Check out Ming Wongs blog for his thoughts on it)is not the way to success. It is merely one of the many skills you will need to master.
If you have mastered this, put it in your toolbox and move on to the next discipline.
Suppose I was interviewing you for a pre race trading job and asked the following questions... (how would you answer them)
1. what is the average difference in the over round between say The Derby and a 16 runner class 6 handicap at kelso on a monday. And at what level would you ideally time your entry?
2. how do you a)identify whether a race is more suited to scalping or prime swinging material and b) likely to have flip/flopping favourites?
3. how does, or can, the result of a previous race affect the movement of odds in a following race?
4. Describe your best case scenario (conditions) for entering a trade and exiting. If you cannot answer this comprehensively, you have found the biggest single reason so far for your frustrations. ie you don't know what to do to move forward with your learning.
5. How much of your time do you spend just watching and making notes on what you see on the screen. Eliminate the pressure to WIN or NOT LOSE, sit back, make a cuppa, record screen activity, think, review, talk to yourself and enjoy the learning process without feeling the need to participate. Then... you can learn to bring that 'non attachment' to your actual trading psyche.
Hope you find a little inspiration and a little bit more of the jigsaw shows itself to you.
Hi Quinny,
How would you answer them?
Is it Friday night again already? Great!!
Hi Nick
You asked how I would answer the questions... well, I urge you not to think I am being evasive for enigmatic reasons, but I am from a training background and I know you will benefit far more from thinking about this than me telling you my thoughts on it.
You learn far more from your own conclusions than from other peoples (cannot work out where the apostophe goes in 'peoples'!!). This is why Peter webb will never lay down a blueprint for trading success. He can't!
But I will say that if you are ever to be successful,then you will most likely be aware of the answers to these sort of questions. i guess it is more about trying to steer people down the right road, then you have a chance of getting there.
Let the learning happen. Don't hurry it.
I would say, don't set out to make profit, let profit come to you as a result of what you have learned.
Suppose you were tasked with sitting for 1000 hours in front of the betting markets, watching price movements etc. Even if you were not remotely interested in the subject, you would start to recognise patterns. Think laboratory! Are you willing to throw enough hours at it?
You need discipline right? Well, it is a fact that if you excercise discipline in one aspect of your life it filters through to other aspects. Lets test your discipline then, right now... For the next 6 weeks I want you to get up 1.5 hours earlier than normal, every day, and write you trading thoughts/goals in a diary, then have a cuppa then a quick nap if you like before getting on with your day. If you baulk at this idea, consider this... would Richard Branson, Adam heathcote, Peter Webb etc. have the same frame of mind over the challenge?
Learn To Lose
Like many new traders, I was told to first 'learn how not to lose'
I understand the sentiment behind that concept but I have to say I now realise it was the single biggest reason for me, personally, taking so long to be profitable.
It primes your subconcious into thinking that losing is bad/wrong. It is not!!
One of the very first things you need to learn as a novice trader is how to lose. How to lose in the right way. How to take the loss, when to take the loss how to accept the loss, how to trade the next race following a loss, what to do if you realise the loss is still affecting you several trades later. The importance of enjoying coping with a loss. In short, Learning How To Lose.
So You Think You Can Trade?
Here's a test...
Starting tomorrow with a £10 bank only, I don't want you to make a profit. Just let me know when it has run out. Do you have the discipline to accept the challenge. You will learn alot for the price of a tenner.
QUICK QUIZ - Below are the four outcomes you can have from a trade. Which is the odd one out?
a) Big Win
b) Small Win
c) Big loss
d) Small loss
Hi Nick
You asked how I would answer the questions... well, I urge you not to think I am being evasive for enigmatic reasons, but I am from a training background and I know you will benefit far more from thinking about this than me telling you my thoughts on it.
You learn far more from your own conclusions than from other peoples (cannot work out where the apostophe goes in 'peoples'!!). This is why Peter webb will never lay down a blueprint for trading success. He can't!
But I will say that if you are ever to be successful,then you will most likely be aware of the answers to these sort of questions. i guess it is more about trying to steer people down the right road, then you have a chance of getting there.
Let the learning happen. Don't hurry it.
I would say, don't set out to make profit, let profit come to you as a result of what you have learned.
Suppose you were tasked with sitting for 1000 hours in front of the betting markets, watching price movements etc. Even if you were not remotely interested in the subject, you would start to recognise patterns. Think laboratory! Are you willing to throw enough hours at it?
You need discipline right? Well, it is a fact that if you excercise discipline in one aspect of your life it filters through to other aspects. Lets test your discipline then, right now... For the next 6 weeks I want you to get up 1.5 hours earlier than normal, every day, and write you trading thoughts/goals in a diary, then have a cuppa then a quick nap if you like before getting on with your day. If you baulk at this idea, consider this... would Richard Branson, Adam heathcote, Peter Webb etc. have the same frame of mind over the challenge?
Learn To Lose
Like many new traders, I was told to first 'learn how not to lose'
I understand the sentiment behind that concept but I have to say I now realise it was the single biggest reason for me, personally, taking so long to be profitable.
It primes your subconcious into thinking that losing is bad/wrong. It is not!!
One of the very first things you need to learn as a novice trader is how to lose. How to lose in the right way. How to take the loss, when to take the loss how to accept the loss, how to trade the next race following a loss, what to do if you realise the loss is still affecting you several trades later. The importance of enjoying coping with a loss. In short, Learning How To Lose.
So You Think You Can Trade?
Here's a test...
Starting tomorrow with a £10 bank only, I don't want you to make a profit. Just let me know when it has run out. Do you have the discipline to accept the challenge. You will learn alot for the price of a tenner.
QUICK QUIZ - Below are the four outcomes you can have from a trade. Which is the odd one out?
a) Big Win
b) Small Win
c) Big loss
d) Small loss
-
ndarlington
- Posts: 15
- Joined: Mon Aug 03, 2009 12:41 pm
Hi Quinny,Quinny wrote:Is it Friday night again already? Great!!
Hi Nick
You asked how I would answer the questions... well, I urge you not to think I am being evasive for enigmatic reasons, but I am from a training background and I know you will benefit far more from thinking about this than me telling you my thoughts on it.
You learn far more from your own conclusions than from other peoples (cannot work out where the apostophe goes in 'peoples'!!). This is why Peter webb will never lay down a blueprint for trading success. He can't!
But I will say that if you are ever to be successful,then you will most likely be aware of the answers to these sort of questions. i guess it is more about trying to steer people down the right road, then you have a chance of getting there.
Let the learning happen. Don't hurry it.
I would say, don't set out to make profit, let profit come to you as a result of what you have learned.
Suppose you were tasked with sitting for 1000 hours in front of the betting markets, watching price movements etc. Even if you were not remotely interested in the subject, you would start to recognise patterns. Think laboratory! Are you willing to throw enough hours at it?
You need discipline right? Well, it is a fact that if you excercise discipline in one aspect of your life it filters through to other aspects. Lets test your discipline then, right now... For the next 6 weeks I want you to get up 1.5 hours earlier than normal, every day, and write you trading thoughts/goals in a diary, then have a cuppa then a quick nap if you like before getting on with your day. If you baulk at this idea, consider this... would Richard Branson, Adam heathcote, Peter Webb etc. have the same frame of mind over the challenge?
Learn To Lose
Like many new traders, I was told to first 'learn how not to lose'
I understand the sentiment behind that concept but I have to say I now realise it was the single biggest reason for me, personally, taking so long to be profitable.
It primes your subconcious into thinking that losing is bad/wrong. It is not!!
One of the very first things you need to learn as a novice trader is how to lose. How to lose in the right way. How to take the loss, when to take the loss how to accept the loss, how to trade the next race following a loss, what to do if you realise the loss is still affecting you several trades later. The importance of enjoying coping with a loss. In short, Learning How To Lose.
So You Think You Can Trade?
Here's a test...
Starting tomorrow with a £10 bank only, I don't want you to make a profit. Just let me know when it has run out. Do you have the discipline to accept the challenge. You will learn alot for the price of a tenner.
QUICK QUIZ - Below are the four outcomes you can have from a trade. Which is the odd one out?
a) Big Win
b) Small Win
c) Big loss
d) Small loss
Thanks for the reply - very interesting.
Well I've been going at it on and off for a few months and only in the last 3 weeks have sat down and have been absolutely determined to make this work. This is what I want to do.
I have learnt a hell of a lot in the last three weeks especially, by studying the markets. The little tips and tricks you can pick up, the technical analysis, and watching the markets to recognise the patterns, etc.
What intrigued me about your earlier post was that it seemed that you focused a lot on the fundimentals, as in the type of race (hcap, maiden), no of runners, how the market changes based on the previous.
I haven't really delved into this aspect before, so was wondering how important it was in comparison with the other factors... mainly analysing the market as you see it in front of you, the trends etc. Rather than the type and class of race, for example.
The most important thing I've learnt is the mindset - which I would have never thought before. Having patience, waiting for the trend, or abstaining if I cannot see it (as opposed to flying in because I'm bored, hoping to pick something up, as ive done before) is very important. Learning to lose with the correct mindset is something I've learning as well - I'm getting there - but I'm at a place where I accept it as the learning process. However, a big loss where I've been stupid certainly does affect me. I can have a good run of 10 races of small profit, only to be stupid in a race with a big loss, and then it will affect me with a run of small losses. I'm learning to get over that one.
Your last question seems a philasophical one... I would personally say a 'Big Win' because I've certainly had the big/small loss and the small win, but my biggest win certainly doesn't equal the biggest loss!
The answer would probably be the Big Loss. Because you should never, ever let it run when its heading against you without cutting it out, in my novice opinion. Its not coming back!!!
I know the only way you can really learn is to sit in front of the markets day in day out and watch/practice. Its always good to get some advice from the pros though - to make sure your heading in the right direction
Cheers!
Nick
3. how does, or can, the result of a previous race affect the movement of odds in a following race?
I asked this question earlier in the thread.
Today there was a good example of this and how you could make a few free ticks.
Richard Hills rode the first 3 winners on the card at Ascot and if you had gone straight to the market for the 4th race where he was on the favourite GUEST BOOK you could easily have bagged 2 or three quick and easy ticks as the price went in from around 3.5 to 3.2/3.1 in about 30 seconds. This was a particularly low risk trade because he was already on the clear favourite and you would green out half an hour before the start! Nice!
But wait, there is more to do yet because if you then watch that race waiting to see if he wins (as expected) with your back bet primed on his ride in the fifth, because the odds would have surely tumbled, you could have expected more than a 5 or 6 tick move in seconds!
As it happens he was beaten in to second place and his next ride drifted imediately from 9.2. Something to bear in mind. Not rocket science I know just a bit of common sense.
I have to say that in that 5th race Philip Robinson showed what a great judge he is when winning on Electrolyser, leading from start to finish over 2 miles and in a listed race at that. Superb stuff.
I asked this question earlier in the thread.
Today there was a good example of this and how you could make a few free ticks.
Richard Hills rode the first 3 winners on the card at Ascot and if you had gone straight to the market for the 4th race where he was on the favourite GUEST BOOK you could easily have bagged 2 or three quick and easy ticks as the price went in from around 3.5 to 3.2/3.1 in about 30 seconds. This was a particularly low risk trade because he was already on the clear favourite and you would green out half an hour before the start! Nice!
But wait, there is more to do yet because if you then watch that race waiting to see if he wins (as expected) with your back bet primed on his ride in the fifth, because the odds would have surely tumbled, you could have expected more than a 5 or 6 tick move in seconds!
As it happens he was beaten in to second place and his next ride drifted imediately from 9.2. Something to bear in mind. Not rocket science I know just a bit of common sense.
I have to say that in that 5th race Philip Robinson showed what a great judge he is when winning on Electrolyser, leading from start to finish over 2 miles and in a listed race at that. Superb stuff.
Hi Quinny,
Thanks for your posts. Like a lot of people here, I'm very new to this game, so am finding others' insights helpful. Very early on, it's obvious that there's a lot more to it all than meets the eye. I'm finding that post-trade analysis (though time consuming) is teaching me a lot too. With regards overround, is there any way to get hold of historical data, or is it much more a case of putting in the hours and eventually you will learn what to expect and how this might effect timing trades better.
Though not yet making money, I am enjoying the learning process!
Cheers,
ThePom
Thanks for your posts. Like a lot of people here, I'm very new to this game, so am finding others' insights helpful. Very early on, it's obvious that there's a lot more to it all than meets the eye. I'm finding that post-trade analysis (though time consuming) is teaching me a lot too. With regards overround, is there any way to get hold of historical data, or is it much more a case of putting in the hours and eventually you will learn what to expect and how this might effect timing trades better.
Though not yet making money, I am enjoying the learning process!
Cheers,
ThePom
Hi The Pom
I keep my own detailed records on overround.
I think of it like the draw. It is different in different circumstances.
To throw you on the scent, I would suggest a few basic parimeters to start with.
1) No. of runners
2) Amount matched
3) Grade of race
And for Saturday racing, which races are subject to the Scoop 6.
remember prices fluctuate because of people not horses. So you have to be thinking about which variables affect people's pockets.
Make it a long term project because your feeling toward overround will change with experience.
Sometime it has a dramatic affect, sometimes very little. Give yourself time to absorb this over time.
But also, it is not the be all and end all. No indicator is. Understand its role and integrate it with your other learnings.
I keep my own detailed records on overround.
I think of it like the draw. It is different in different circumstances.
To throw you on the scent, I would suggest a few basic parimeters to start with.
1) No. of runners
2) Amount matched
3) Grade of race
And for Saturday racing, which races are subject to the Scoop 6.
remember prices fluctuate because of people not horses. So you have to be thinking about which variables affect people's pockets.
Make it a long term project because your feeling toward overround will change with experience.
Sometime it has a dramatic affect, sometimes very little. Give yourself time to absorb this over time.
But also, it is not the be all and end all. No indicator is. Understand its role and integrate it with your other learnings.
Hi Redbrix,
I have read this thread with interest.
What stood out in what you wrote is that you have managed to cut your losses.
Your prime objective is to protect your capital and cutting your losses is essential and one of the most difficult to master. Well done.
The profits will come if you continue to maintain a healthy determination to learn and integrate what you learn into your trading strategies.
The posts by Quinny are excellent in that they are full of sound advice . They should be stickied in my opinion for all newbie traders.
If you follow the advice there you will one day make profits consistently day in and day out.
Personally, I created my own exercise to carry out when I began trading (and losing). I pretended to be a professional full time trader who was asked to write his "blueprint for success". After writing it, I realized how much I had highlighted my own weaknesses and it showed me where to concentrate my renewed efforts to fine tune what I was doing. It worked for me and might be an enlightening exercise for you to try.
Hope this helps.
All the best with your trading.
Mercury
I have read this thread with interest.
What stood out in what you wrote is that you have managed to cut your losses.
Your prime objective is to protect your capital and cutting your losses is essential and one of the most difficult to master. Well done.
The profits will come if you continue to maintain a healthy determination to learn and integrate what you learn into your trading strategies.
The posts by Quinny are excellent in that they are full of sound advice . They should be stickied in my opinion for all newbie traders.
If you follow the advice there you will one day make profits consistently day in and day out.
Personally, I created my own exercise to carry out when I began trading (and losing). I pretended to be a professional full time trader who was asked to write his "blueprint for success". After writing it, I realized how much I had highlighted my own weaknesses and it showed me where to concentrate my renewed efforts to fine tune what I was doing. It worked for me and might be an enlightening exercise for you to try.
Hope this helps.
All the best with your trading.
Mercury
