I wouldn’t say they mean nothing, but I see where you’re coming from..
Betfair chart / Betfair graph of the day
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ShaunWhite
- Posts: 9731
- Joined: Sat Sep 03, 2016 3:42 am
Sports markets and financial markets have more differences than similarites imo.
Differences everywhere you turn, from inventory, to the closed nature of the overround, to interrelated markets (eg yen rates or civil wars don't often affect a horses price), the very short dated market expiry, lack of underlying asset value (a fallen horse doen't often get up like a company that's gone into penny share land sometime can), no interim yields, differences in tranasaction charges affecting trading style....
I'm stuggling to find many similarities really.
People like to equate it to financials because it makes them feel special, but there's actually more similarities with the wholesale fish market but who ever looks at how that behaves?
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ShaunWhite
- Posts: 9731
- Joined: Sat Sep 03, 2016 3:42 am
It's not actually far from being an exponential stretching of time. It's like the advertised off time is a black hole and we all accelerate towards it.
And there's certainly no escape if you arrive at the event horizon with an open position !
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ruthlessimon
- Posts: 2094
- Joined: Wed Mar 23, 2016 3:54 pm
Gotta be careful when it comes to picking & choosing. I could easily find ya a counterexample.
But the idea is testable.
Does a large IP% gap between Mwap & the initial liveshow price, have an impact on SP
Mwap: the noise a bassline tune makes. it is not an actual word but a sound???ruthlessimon wrote: ↑Fri Jul 20, 2018 5:59 pmGotta be careful when it comes to picking & choosing. I could easily find ya a counterexample.
But the idea is testable.
Does a large IP% gap between Mwap & the initial liveshow price, have an impact on SP
I've never done any detailed research on it but I've noticed off memory, which I know could be wrong, that they often do revise to the mean to some extent.
My thinking behind it is that if more than a few people are willing to back it at 6 early, there's likely to be a reason for it, and it's quite likely to be well overpriced at some stage. I know factors at the racecourse can sometimes drastically changed a horses chances, but they can't justify all the big drifts.
