Betfair chart / Betfair graph of the day
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stueytrader
- Posts: 863
- Joined: Tue Dec 15, 2015 6:47 pm
It's a good question, though I always consider the mechanism for those is different. I may be wrong and they are the same, but winners that everyone wants to lay always seems more counter-intuitive...?spreadbetting wrote: ↑Wed Oct 10, 2018 5:25 pmDoes it also mystify you when horses get backed off the boards, steam in and lose?stueytrader wrote: ↑Tue Oct 09, 2018 5:55 pmAlways been the type that mystify me the most in all of trading and betting...those that drift like a barge then go on to win them. Never got it, prob never will.
Maybe this incorrect, but when I see heavy laying I assume those layers have some good reasoning for viewing the chance as weak in the actual race. Heavy backing also must have a reason, but potentially different reasons.
Many times people are just hopping on an existing bit of momentum and unknowingly create a feedback loop.
I don't have the stats to cite but I believe the underlying BSP is pretty accurate; remember that any individual market(s) may be significant outliers.
I don't have the stats to cite but I believe the underlying BSP is pretty accurate; remember that any individual market(s) may be significant outliers.
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stueytrader
- Posts: 863
- Joined: Tue Dec 15, 2015 6:47 pm
That might explain some, though often not the very rapid and heavy drifts does it?
Plus, that only really assumes the 'trading' element in the market, not the punters who can also be responsible.
A lot of the time horses are just getting to their correct price, especially in handicaps
But it seems in 2yo races these flucs are way overblown as they think 'someone' knows something even when you can tell in the parade they are unsettled and/or not fit enough they will still back them because they will follow the money before anything else...
But it seems in 2yo races these flucs are way overblown as they think 'someone' knows something even when you can tell in the parade they are unsettled and/or not fit enough they will still back them because they will follow the money before anything else...
In addition to what Naffman has just said about the race types one of the biggest factors in exaggerating moves in recent years is likely to be attributed to 'bots'
Once something starts even from a 'false' move bots quickly take over and create a domino effect as they start triggering each other
Once something starts even from a 'false' move bots quickly take over and create a domino effect as they start triggering each other
Couldn't tell you. There's a multitude of reasons. Market activity is comprised of a number of those reasons, sometimes they conflict, sometimes there is a dominant factor e.g. price is incorrect, connections fancy it, some geezer looking to chase back his £25k which he's just lost on the footy, or my favourite reason: No reason at all (purely random)
Market activity is the most accurate information you have access to, and what you should base decisions off
As for why it happens -- who cares
Market activity is the most accurate information you have access to, and what you should base decisions off
As for why it happens -- who cares
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stueytrader
- Posts: 863
- Joined: Tue Dec 15, 2015 6:47 pm
Liked that one, laid it around 7.8!
...and with a specific reason in my choice of laying
To return to the discussion about reasons for big moves, I can see the view that it might not matter, though I always carry an assumption that knowing underlying reasons (even partially) might help in future predictions, at least possibly...
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stueytrader
- Posts: 863
- Joined: Tue Dec 15, 2015 6:47 pm
Agree with that chart Gauss 
Not quite sure what the heck I make of this one though...
Not quite sure what the heck I make of this one though...
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