beat me to it
Betfair chart / Betfair graph of the day
- ruthlessimon
- Posts: 2094
- Joined: Wed Mar 23, 2016 3:54 pm
Gotta be careful when it comes to picking & choosing. I could easily find ya a counterexample.
But the idea is testable.
Does a large IP% gap between Mwap & the initial liveshow price, have an impact on SP
Mwap: the noise a bassline tune makes. it is not an actual word but a sound???ruthlessimon wrote: ↑Fri Jul 20, 2018 5:59 pmGotta be careful when it comes to picking & choosing. I could easily find ya a counterexample.
But the idea is testable.
Does a large IP% gap between Mwap & the initial liveshow price, have an impact on SP
I've never done any detailed research on it but I've noticed off memory, which I know could be wrong, that they often do revise to the mean to some extent.
My thinking behind it is that if more than a few people are willing to back it at 6 early, there's likely to be a reason for it, and it's quite likely to be well overpriced at some stage. I know factors at the racecourse can sometimes drastically changed a horses chances, but they can't justify all the big drifts.
- ShaunWhite
- Posts: 9731
- Joined: Sat Sep 03, 2016 3:42 am
The problem with 3v1 is that you're sat looking at 3 trends that could all be about to end. Easy in hindsight, a different reality when all 3 hit support simultaneously and the full ratcheting effect hits the fav.
Oodles of strategising about how favs move, but if it's the 2nd 3rd or 4th then it seems OK to assume a trend will continue.
If you can quantify that 'easy spot' then I'll write some easy code and put my feet up.
- ruthlessimon
- Posts: 2094
- Joined: Wed Mar 23, 2016 3:54 pm
Absolutely.ShaunWhite wrote: ↑Sun Jul 22, 2018 9:38 pmThe problem with 3v1 is that you're sat looking at 3 trends that could all be about to end. Easy in hindsight, a different reality when all 3 hit support simultaneously and the full ratcheting effect hits the fav.
Oodles of strategising about how favs move, but if it's the 2nd 3rd or 4th then it seems OK to assume a trend will continue.
If you can quantify that 'easy spot' then I'll write some easy code and put my feet up.
I deliberately designed a "forward testing" spready to test it - because it is a fairly straightforward concept (although there's a lot of combinations). I reckon it's actually backwards - but it's certainly not as good as it's touted (in its raw form).
Something I'm also looking at, is designing a spreadsheet, purely in hindsight, just to get an idea of what the most "common" displacement pattern is during a big move (i.e. -8%, +8% or -8%, 2.5%, 2.5%, 2.5% i.e. 3vs1)