Betfair chart / Betfair graph of the day

[Korattt]

This one certainly 'Travelled Lightly' in the 17:00

beat me to it

[Derek27]

Here you are Dallas:

Pocket Dial, 17-55 Kilbeggan.jpg

This is an example of how early money can be indicative of a horse bouncing back.

[ruthlessimon]

This is an example of how early money can be indicative of a horse bouncing back.

Gotta be careful when it comes to picking & choosing. I could easily find ya a counterexample.

But the idea is testable.

Does a large IP% gap between Mwap & the initial liveshow price, have an impact on SP

[Derek27]

This is an example of how early money can be indicative of a horse bouncing back.

Gotta be careful when it comes to picking & choosing. I could easily find ya a counterexample.

But the idea is testable.

Does a large IP% gap between Mwap & the initial liveshow price, have an impact on SP

Mwap: the noise a bassline tune makes. it is not an actual word but a sound???

I've never done any detailed research on it but I've noticed off memory, which I know could be wrong, that they often do revise to the mean to some extent.

My thinking behind it is that if more than a few people are willing to back it at 6 early, there's likely to be a reason for it, and it's quite likely to be well overpriced at some stage. I know factors at the racecourse can sometimes drastically changed a horses chances, but they can't justify all the big drifts.

[Euler]

An ideal trade at Hamilton

Showout_19528339_18_21_38.png

[Simonlofc]

14.00 KO now thats a steam

[Korattt]

14.00 KO now thats a steam

was gonna say that looked kind of weak money wise then I looked at the event

[Naffman]

14.00 KO now thats a steam

was gonna say that looked kind of weak money wise then I looked at the event

Was 2-2 wasn't it?

What caused the huge firm? Actual news or people thinking a fix was on?

[Simonlofc]

14.00 KO now thats a steam

was gonna say that looked kind of weak money wise then I looked at the event

Was 2-2 wasn't it?

What caused the huge firm? Actual news or people thinking a fix was on?

Id guess so, they went right out pre KO and then came right back in it looked like an Ostapenko tennis match graph

[eightbo]

Some support that

22-07-18_1705_Bleu Et Or_17-05-58.JPG

[eightbo]

Classic 3v1 in a four runner race, simplest trade of the week

[boardrep]

its all starting to feel like Facebook ...................(I should have said I no longer have facebook)

[Korattt]

Classic 3v1 in a four runner race, simplest trade of the week

indeed, well done buddy, an easy spot

[ShaunWhite]

Classic 3v1 in a four runner race, simplest trade of the week

indeed, well done buddy, an easy spot

The problem with 3v1 is that you're sat looking at 3 trends that could all be about to end. Easy in hindsight, a different reality when all 3 hit support simultaneously and the full ratcheting effect hits the fav.

Oodles of strategising about how favs move, but if it's the 2nd 3rd or 4th then it seems OK to assume a trend will continue.

If you can quantify that 'easy spot' then I'll write some easy code and put my feet up.

[ruthlessimon]

The problem with 3v1 is that you're sat looking at 3 trends that could all be about to end. Easy in hindsight, a different reality when all 3 hit support simultaneously and the full ratcheting effect hits the fav.

Oodles of strategising about how favs move, but if it's the 2nd 3rd or 4th then it seems OK to assume a trend will continue.

If you can quantify that 'easy spot' then I'll write some easy code and put my feet up.

Absolutely.

I deliberately designed a "forward testing" spready to test it - because it is a fairly straightforward concept (although there's a lot of combinations). I reckon it's actually backwards - but it's certainly not as good as it's touted (in its raw form).

Something I'm also looking at, is designing a spreadsheet, purely in hindsight, just to get an idea of what the most "common" displacement pattern is during a big move (i.e. -8%, +8% or -8%, 2.5%, 2.5%, 2.5% i.e. 3vs1)