Betfair chart / Betfair graph of the day

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Derek27
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Dallas wrote:
Thu Jul 19, 2018 6:47 pm
I always discount anything on the left of BF charts until the real money begins hitting the market, it then gives a much better picture.
That's what I do when trading US and AUS racing, as the early trading is non-existent and meaningless. UK early trading does at least have some relevance because of the extra volume, more punters and more information of the races.
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Dallas
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Derek27 wrote:
Thu Jul 19, 2018 9:10 pm
Dallas wrote:
Thu Jul 19, 2018 6:47 pm
I was assuming those last two charts from Derek were to show how flat the market was rather than a large had occurred move?
I was actually pointing out the full discrepancy in price, just as a matter of interest, though I'm well aware regular traders would not have the opportunity to get on at the bigger price.

As a former small-time gambler who would try to seek value the night before with the odd £10-20, these graphs intrigue me. But from a trading prospective, if people were clueless of the horses chances the night before and traded it at three times the current price, it may indicate volatility/unpredictability in the market. They don't often occur in the bigger races.

If the Betfair graphs had a time-line on the x-axis, I reckon the last ten minutes before the off could take up as much as half the graph.
If a runner is backed in from a big price with proper money during the live shows (ie, 10s to 3s as in the chart) I would be taking notice and will trade accordingly but when it happens the night before or early morning and there's less than a few hundred quid traded all the way down perhaps at just a handful of price points that's just the market forming and its going to have no bearing on the market in its final minutes.
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Derek27
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Dallas wrote:
Thu Jul 19, 2018 9:29 pm
Derek27 wrote:
Thu Jul 19, 2018 9:10 pm
Dallas wrote:
Thu Jul 19, 2018 6:47 pm
I was assuming those last two charts from Derek were to show how flat the market was rather than a large had occurred move?
I was actually pointing out the full discrepancy in price, just as a matter of interest, though I'm well aware regular traders would not have the opportunity to get on at the bigger price.

As a former small-time gambler who would try to seek value the night before with the odd £10-20, these graphs intrigue me. But from a trading prospective, if people were clueless of the horses chances the night before and traded it at three times the current price, it may indicate volatility/unpredictability in the market. They don't often occur in the bigger races.

If the Betfair graphs had a time-line on the x-axis, I reckon the last ten minutes before the off could take up as much as half the graph.
If a runner is backed in from a big price with proper money during the live shows (ie, 10s to 3s as in the chart) I would be taking notice and will trade accordingly but when it happens the night before or early morning and there's less than a few hundred quid traded all the way down perhaps at just a handful of price points that's just the market forming and its going to have no bearing on the market in its final minutes.
It will have no bearing on the market in its final minutes, but if you get involved in markets early looking for longer term trades, it is significant. You sometimes see a horse backed from double figures to a short price and back out to double figures. The last five-minute trader would have missed both moves!
Korattt
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personally, I’ve come to the conclusion that strictly speaking the BF charts don’t really conform to the usual type charts of say a financial instrument offer where one is able to pick out patterns on one particular BF chart to confirm a move,

I think one is better off looking at the charts as a collective then wait for confirmation of what you have in front of you, for every action there’s a reaction an’ all that?
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Naffman
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Charts mean nothing, it's just an easy simple way for people to show the price movements of a particular selection over a period of time.
Korattt
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Naffman wrote:
Fri Jul 20, 2018 10:46 am
Charts mean nothing, it's just an easy simple way for people to show the price movements of a particular selection over a period of time.
I wouldn’t say they mean nothing, but I see where you’re coming from..
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ShaunWhite
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Korattt wrote:
Fri Jul 20, 2018 10:08 am
personally, I’ve come to the conclusion that strictly speaking the BF charts don’t really conform to the usual type charts of say a financial instrument offer
Sports markets and financial markets have more differences than similarites imo.

Differences everywhere you turn, from inventory, to the closed nature of the overround, to interrelated markets (eg yen rates or civil wars don't often affect a horses price), the very short dated market expiry, lack of underlying asset value (a fallen horse doen't often get up like a company that's gone into penny share land sometime can), no interim yields, differences in tranasaction charges affecting trading style....

I'm stuggling to find many similarities really.

People like to equate it to financials because it makes them feel special, but there's actually more similarities with the wholesale fish market but who ever looks at how that behaves?
LinusP
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Derek27 wrote:
Thu Jul 19, 2018 9:10 pm
If the Betfair graphs had a time-line on the x-axis, I reckon the last ten minutes before the off could take up as much as half the graph.
Time doesn’t work like that...

Edit: just realised what you meant and I agree.
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ShaunWhite
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Derek27 wrote:
Thu Jul 19, 2018 9:10 pm
If the Betfair graphs had a time-line on the x-axis, I reckon the last ten minutes before the off could take up as much as half the graph.
It's not actually far from being an exponential stretching of time. It's like the advertised off time is a black hole and we all accelerate towards it.
And there's certainly no escape if you arrive at the event horizon with an open position ! :ugeek: :)
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Dallas
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This one certainly 'Travelled Lightly' in the 17:00
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Korattt
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Dallas wrote:
Fri Jul 20, 2018 5:00 pm
This one certainly 'Travelled Lightly' in the 17:00
beat me to it
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Derek27
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Here you are Dallas:
Pocket Dial, 17-55 Kilbeggan.jpg
This is an example of how early money can be indicative of a horse bouncing back.
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ruthlessimon
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Derek27 wrote:
Fri Jul 20, 2018 5:54 pm
This is an example of how early money can be indicative of a horse bouncing back.
Gotta be careful when it comes to picking & choosing. I could easily find ya a counterexample.

But the idea is testable.

Does a large IP% gap between Mwap & the initial liveshow price, have an impact on SP
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Derek27
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ruthlessimon wrote:
Fri Jul 20, 2018 5:59 pm
Derek27 wrote:
Fri Jul 20, 2018 5:54 pm
This is an example of how early money can be indicative of a horse bouncing back.
Gotta be careful when it comes to picking & choosing. I could easily find ya a counterexample.

But the idea is testable.

Does a large IP% gap between Mwap & the initial liveshow price, have an impact on SP
Mwap: the noise a bassline tune makes. it is not an actual word but a sound???

I've never done any detailed research on it but I've noticed off memory, which I know could be wrong, that they often do revise to the mean to some extent.

My thinking behind it is that if more than a few people are willing to back it at 6 early, there's likely to be a reason for it, and it's quite likely to be well overpriced at some stage. I know factors at the racecourse can sometimes drastically changed a horses chances, but they can't justify all the big drifts.
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Euler
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An ideal trade at Hamilton
Showout_19528339_18_21_38.png
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