Betfair chart / Betfair graph of the day

[mobius]

Don't forget this forum is publicly available - so if somebody posts about using a baf file to say "if it goes down three ticks then place another lay bet...............". It's a bit like "Baby Shark". Last week I'd never heard of it but thanks BBC radio I can't get the damn tune outta my head. Link here (Pink Fong): https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Ny-iXIVTC7w
I've been using the baf file in practice mode which has produced some fantastic results - if you have an unlimited money supply.
I do hope you enjoy Baby Shark
You can hum it while you are waiting for the market correction. (everybody's run out of money- just like 2008)

[stueytrader]

Nice pre drift from 7's out to 13.0.........for a winner!

[Derek27]

The formwatchers are having a field day.

I gave up betting because it was too time-consuming and trading's easier, but I'm really tempted to go back to betting with these crazy historical price overrounds, probably dropping to about 50%.

[weemac]

Some clairvoyants pushed this one out from 2/1 to 16/1.

The horse finished last, 16 lengths behind the second last horse. In a 7 furlong flat race.

[Crazyskier]

Some clairvoyants pushed this one out from 2/1 to 16/1.

The horse finished last, 16 lengths behind the second last horse. In a 7 furlong flat race.

Indeed. Somebody sure knew something was up...

[stueytrader]

If anyone is a trader and backed that at 2/1 they probably should just give up now

[Derek27]

This one drifted like a barge but went it.

Danecase, 17-30 Leicester.jpg

[stueytrader]

Always been the type that mystify me the most in all of trading and betting...those that drift like a barge then go on to win them. Never got it, prob never will.

[Derek27]

As a punter I've never understood why somebody decides to back a horse, but when he sees it's drifted to twice the price he changes his mind!

Sure, people may know things you don't, but that's always the case with betting. In the absence of any obvious reason for the drift I always had a bit more on - it's often an overreaction and offers better value.

[Gauss]

I’m pretty sure Euler has mentioned backing drifters that actually go on to win.

[ruthlessimon]

Back it up with data (literally)

[Derek27]

Back it up with data (literally)

When you were young you learnt to cross roads by using your judgement of a car's speed and distance. You didn't need to measure the car's speed, distance, and look at historical data to decide on the probability of impact.

Calculating the number of horses that drift from 6/1 to 12/1 and win may be useful to somebody planning automation, but it wouldn't be of any use to a punter - they take a lot of other information into consideration and judge each case on its merits.

The real question is, is a horse that's value at 6/1 still value at 12/1 after taking into account whatever (possibly nothing) caused the drift. A blanket statistical analysis would include a lot of horses that weren't value at 6/1 and give inaccurate results.

[stueytrader]

I think the bit that confuses me in betting markets is why the general view suddenly shifts so much - e.g. a horse that was reliably being considered a 6/1 shot (by both layers and backers), then becoming a 12/1 shot by both sides. That still puzzles me, especially when it wins.

[ShaunWhite]

Back it up with data (literally)

When you were young you learnt to cross roads by using your judgement of a car's speed and distance. You didn't need to measure the car's speed, distance, and look at historical data to decide on the probability of impact.

I hear what you're saying Derek but the big drifters that win stick in the memory more than those that drift like a barge and lose. Unusual things stay in your consciousness longer. This forum is full of attachments like that and I don't blame Simon for being cynical.

[Derek27]

I think the bit that confuses me in betting markets is why the general view suddenly shifts so much - e.g. a horse that was reliably being considered a 6/1 shot (by both layers and backers), then becoming a 12/1 shot by both sides. That still puzzles me, especially when it wins.

It's even more confusing when it gets backed back down to 6/1 in less than two minutes!

I can see why it might happen. A small drift to set the wheels in motion, traders who backed it desperate to close trade plus other traders opening a trade expecting it to continue to drift and jumping onto the bandwagon. If the horse is fancied, eventually punters will jump in when they see outstanding value.