Trading Horse racing : Today's Racing

The sport of kings.
Post Reply
User avatar
SeaHorseRacing
Posts: 2204
Joined: Fri May 20, 2016 7:06 pm

Thu Jan 11, 2018 8:54 pm

Bob71:

Just want to point something out as I know you respect him but Western Way... He was withdrawn on the 18 May 2016 at 2.41pm approx an hour before racing on the grounds of the ground. It was Good to Soft with showers.

At this point his form had started to slip. With that in mind the trainer ruled the horse out based on the fact it would be usuited on the ground.. However a few runs later it went on to run on Soft going and had previously already shown form on GS ground. Firstly if you can get me an answer why was the horse withdrawn based on the ground conditions when it went on to run after this on similar ground when the trainer knew it would be "unsuited"

Additionally whilst this horse was out of form for 10 runs he had one rune where he finished 2nd on soft ground ironically at 9.5 furlongs... however after that run they decided to run him back in distance to 8f or less. So we have a horse who is way out of form, not showing the front running pulling behavour who clearly likes a longer trip to showing form to then drop the horse back in trip...

My conclusion on this is.. As you state the horse was not "right" or himself, with the trainer knowing that rather then step the horse from 9.5f to say 10f or further they decide to go back to 8f. when the horse has never ever shown anything half decent at that distance or less. Why? most likely because the trainer is a) still unsatisified with him and b) he knows he lame, off colour or whatever.
If this horse was not being fiddled it would be nothing other then common sense to run him either at 9.5f again or further... yet they wait keep running at 8f.... has year and half off running off the pace... bang back at 7f from a long lay off... to finish 2nd.. right he seems better lets step him up in trip.. 1m4f gambled into favouritism... then ironically hes back to pulling the jockeys arm of ("fresh as f****)
Right top notch jockey, weak race 2miles. Wheres my money.

Although no rule breaking it is a type of fiddling.

I would sum up the fact the horse was lame, not right and based on those accounts the trainer put the horse in races that would not suit the running knowing a) he would know when he was right, b) have a better handicap rating c) find a weaker race and know roughly when it will win if it ever comes back to its old self.

I appreciate old form and old expectations this horse was a cheltenham horse however somewhere down the line they hid the fact he was lame. Either way if the horse was genuinly off and lame he should have been tied up in his box and not running. All i can see is a horse not running to his usual self, running in races that are obviously not the right distance. I think if what you say is correct then its clear the trainer took advantage of its animal and running him whilst he was out of form to ensure the horse had a winnable future if it ever came back to itself.

bobs71
Posts: 50
Joined: Sun Nov 20, 2016 10:22 pm

Thu Jan 11, 2018 9:43 pm

SHR

I am beginning to warm to you :roll:
you are asking the right questions and no doubt have a great "enthusiasm" for the game.
you have mentioned in the past that you use times and pace.

But you are under the assumption that when you see a 1 or a 2 in a horses profile - that is "form"
Time is a great seperator as it indicates whether that 1 or 2 is maybe worth a 5 or 6 or using this numbering scale analogy a -2 or -3 which on this scale would be better than a 1 or a 2.
And you will agree that horses of lesser ability will run slower times.
Putting it into weight terms (the universal language of horse racing) there could be as much as 100lbs in difference between a Group 1 and a Seller on the flat and as much again over Jumps but at slower pace. (higher weights)

the 4 length 2nd on Soft at Nottingham really has no worth in the realm of "form"
The horse missed the break , pulled hard ,pulled hard more , pulled hard some more , all within a below racing pace , then when finally given it's head and some encouragement , ran past some already slow horses. The ability shown that day was in the last furlong. No more - no less. So it really only ran 1 furlong on Soft ground.This was no test and inconclusive proof that the horse can act on soft.

Now you mention a run on Good to Soft
There is a great difference between Good to Soft and genuinely Soft ground.
But what does that mean - what difference - texture ?, moisture ? , water content ? rather than go into an explanation of top soil and subsoil layers - the real difference is in the "Time" it takes to get over or through the surface from the start to finish.( and in-between) - as much as 0.75s per furlong in genuine cases.

A horse who has a heriditary preference for good ground will usually act on gd to soft - if well within itself it may even be able to win or finish a close second - especially if we go back to the races where they are "below" racing pace.

BUT - a horse with this kind of preference will always show his BEST form on his preferred ground.

You mention the withdrawel of WW - we both know the official going reports and the methods used to obtain these are flawed in base terms - "Good" conditions can be "Bad" in uneven places , and vice - versa and it is the main reason Phil Bull turned to times for a more accurate estimate - and that is key here - estimate. Putting a one - word label on a length of ground 1 and a half miles long and 40 yds wide is never going to be anything but a guess.

You are still "seeing" stuff that is not there and i mean that in a helpful way.
Instead of "knowing" and working on the definite - try more "estimating" and working within chance.

User avatar
Naffman
Posts: 2228
Joined: Sun Aug 11, 2013 5:46 am

Thu Jan 11, 2018 9:58 pm

The horse was running over 7f 6 weeks ago, won over 2 miles today if that isn't planned then I don't know what is.

Good tip plain and simple. But no wonder people are scared to put up an opinion :roll:

User avatar
SeaHorseRacing
Posts: 2204
Joined: Fri May 20, 2016 7:06 pm

Thu Jan 11, 2018 10:02 pm

Just had a look at an excel sheet. The pace for that race was actually very very quick, your correct he simply came second because everything went backwards.

With regards to western way I never looked into this race in any detail until now, All I did was paint a picture but there was just so many vairable to suggest everything was not with intentions of "trying" during a long period. You cannot deny the fact they were saving him for a rainy day.

As some people may not gather, you have to take me with a pinch of salt at times, by the way extremely dislexic so comming accross as "knowing" is most of the time my calculate "estimate" I just strugle to put my words to pad.

Anyway that me for the night, I have a mate in scotland whos been raving about a horse in his morning lot that has come on immensely from a gelding op.. previous form is duck eggs so hopefull to share a nice winner for you guys in early spring! :mrgreen: ;)

bobs71
Posts: 50
Joined: Sun Nov 20, 2016 10:22 pm

Thu Jan 11, 2018 10:27 pm

SHR

:D yeah the rainy day was this frosty night!
But all done within the system. If anybody erred it has been the handicapper
As you CORRECTLY pointed out ability is transferrable from code to code. And to give a horse who was rated as high as 130 over hurdles - a mark of 62 - because of a 442 absence!! was quite a rick!
And intention was shown on the comeback race. If i was handicapping and taking into account Don's record (check out the kind of SR he is capable of) then i would have raised him after the Newc. run.
DC is a legend in Newmarket.
And he is no angel - but this was by the book opportunism , with some TLC thrown in,


I reckon on the flat and AW the horse will struggle in the mid 70s but up to that level , if stays sound then can be competitive.
But hurdles will be interesting

Trading96
Posts: 281
Joined: Thu Mar 16, 2017 4:47 pm

Fri Jan 12, 2018 3:06 pm

Another 1000 winner

User avatar
ShaunWhite
Posts: 2721
Joined: Sat Sep 03, 2016 3:42 am

Fri Jan 12, 2018 3:10 pm

15:00 Hunt. What an amazing IP market. If only I played in play :roll:


How much was traded @900+ ? My recorder wasn't working.

wilf
Posts: 63
Joined: Fri Nov 04, 2016 7:34 pm

Fri Jan 12, 2018 3:11 pm

Trading96 wrote:
Fri Jan 12, 2018 3:06 pm
Another 1000 winner
Yeah £17. The front two burnt each other out I think. I didn't like that spike at the start of the race on Style De Garde it killed my profit :|

User avatar
ShaunWhite
Posts: 2721
Joined: Sat Sep 03, 2016 3:42 am

Fri Jan 12, 2018 3:15 pm

wilf wrote:
Fri Jan 12, 2018 3:11 pm
Trading96 wrote:
Fri Jan 12, 2018 3:06 pm
Another 1000 winner
Yeah £17. The front two burnt each other out I think. I didn't like that spike at the start of the race on Style De Garde it killed my profit :|
I just managed to dodge that bullet. I think some serious money was won and lost on that one PP & IP.

User avatar
SeaHorseRacing
Posts: 2204
Joined: Fri May 20, 2016 7:06 pm

Fri Jan 12, 2018 10:32 pm

I have been working on the Lingfield card all evening and think I have found a beauty of runner.

12.15 Lingers- Amenta.

She certainly wants to run further in distance and stepping up from 1 mile to 1m4f has really caught my eye. Shes running in a seller for the first time after dropping 10lbs in two races. Both races she skipped out of the gate and could of easily taken the lead only to be held back. The fact she is now running in a race at 1m4f shows me she was mostly likely held on purpose in the attentions of not finishing in the frame.

Her first run for John Berry, she ran very green in a slowly run race and picked them off in a matter of seconds at the end of her race although way to far behind to even finish.

I dont really think this is a typical horse to be gambled tomorrow, if anything i think it may drift but I do think this horse has a good chance. I rarely back horses each way but really cannot see it not finishing in the first 3.

There are two other horses in the race rated highly so they will most defintely stay strong in the betting but I actually think the trainer has found a perfect little race, weight for age and fillie allowance with some very poorly rated runnesr bar the two.

I think the intention is to make the running and make all. Two previous gos at Lingfield jumping out well and taken very keen hold by jockey. Think they will try to let her dominate. D.O.B will also be a great trade.

Could be a case of place money. If this was a handicap i would be telling you to fill your boots.

14/1 and 26 on bf... worth a go for some spare change. I think she should be 7/1 or 8/1 roughly a 15% chance of winning. If this was a handicap with similar horses id say a 25% chance of winning around 3/1.

Post Reply

Return to “Trading Horse racing”

  • Information
  • Who is online

    Users browsing this forum: lukesanges and 9 guests