Today's Horse Racing
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SeaHorseRacing
- Posts: 2893
- Joined: Fri May 20, 2016 7:06 pm
Absolutele madness at Sandown tomorrow. 2.10 Sandown, Baristan The Bold is running in a novice event.
He is rated 92 against mostly unraced maidens.
The face 5/2 available is absolute insanity. 4/6 should be the price possible it should be shorter.
The best horses of modern times have barely even managed a rating of 80 on their debut let alone 92.
Assuming Baristan The Bold hits his level and sees out the extra furlong... where I think he could be better there is the smallest chance of being beat.
I’ve tipped a fair few of theses over the years and the winter AW has a handful of theses types of races each year and occasions some during the summer, but I haven’t seen one since Feb/March.
It’s all about the trainer/jockey connections thing again if I was Tom Dascombe I think I’d be offended as long as I didn’t want a bet.
Gosden, Godolphin and big jockey names are trying to create an illusion in that market. Ignore it, no chance any horse will get writhin 2 lengths.
If your a market maker... you might want to re check what your offering.
If this horse was Trained by Gosden... it be 4/9
If it was trained by Godolphin it be 8/11
If it was ridden by Ryan Moore butwith same trainer it be 6/4
If it was ridden By DeSousa but with same trainer it be 15/8.
Does the above really make that difference?
Add some more in for arguments sake.
Sandown is a stiff and tough track to crack. Not a track that favours inexperienced horses.
Additionally Baristan won at the course nearly 3 weeks ago.
Had a little look to see what professionals are saying and it seems the penalty is an issue. He won a pretty strong handicap at the track carrying top weight.
The more I look at it the more I could price it 1/3 (1.33).
What could get him beat? He doesn’t stay the trip or a ridiculously strong pace.
For you cautious players. Assuming he goes off at a fair price a D.O.B is a great wager. He should jump out of the gate and trade pretty low pretty quickly, if all fails I expect a d.o.b would of happened before 3f out.
He is rated 92 against mostly unraced maidens.
The face 5/2 available is absolute insanity. 4/6 should be the price possible it should be shorter.
The best horses of modern times have barely even managed a rating of 80 on their debut let alone 92.
Assuming Baristan The Bold hits his level and sees out the extra furlong... where I think he could be better there is the smallest chance of being beat.
I’ve tipped a fair few of theses over the years and the winter AW has a handful of theses types of races each year and occasions some during the summer, but I haven’t seen one since Feb/March.
It’s all about the trainer/jockey connections thing again if I was Tom Dascombe I think I’d be offended as long as I didn’t want a bet.
Gosden, Godolphin and big jockey names are trying to create an illusion in that market. Ignore it, no chance any horse will get writhin 2 lengths.
If your a market maker... you might want to re check what your offering.
If this horse was Trained by Gosden... it be 4/9
If it was trained by Godolphin it be 8/11
If it was ridden by Ryan Moore butwith same trainer it be 6/4
If it was ridden By DeSousa but with same trainer it be 15/8.
Does the above really make that difference?
Add some more in for arguments sake.
Sandown is a stiff and tough track to crack. Not a track that favours inexperienced horses.
Additionally Baristan won at the course nearly 3 weeks ago.
Had a little look to see what professionals are saying and it seems the penalty is an issue. He won a pretty strong handicap at the track carrying top weight.
The more I look at it the more I could price it 1/3 (1.33).
What could get him beat? He doesn’t stay the trip or a ridiculously strong pace.
For you cautious players. Assuming he goes off at a fair price a D.O.B is a great wager. He should jump out of the gate and trade pretty low pretty quickly, if all fails I expect a d.o.b would of happened before 3f out.
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SeaHorseRacing
- Posts: 2893
- Joined: Fri May 20, 2016 7:06 pm
it’s a good job 99% of what I do is trading.
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SeaHorseRacing
- Posts: 2893
- Joined: Fri May 20, 2016 7:06 pm
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RoystonVasey
- Posts: 10
- Joined: Tue Mar 13, 2018 8:33 pm
Thanks for the info seahorse, got a nice DOB on that
lucky to get the match on BETDAQ though terrible in play liquidity.
lucky to get the match on BETDAQ though terrible in play liquidity.
