Didn't really enjoy RA today, enjoyed this evening much much less!
Nevermind, still got a few US races to trade and then Randwick tomorrow morning.
Today's Horse Racing
No, I'm pretty much a cold trader. AUS trading isn't difficult. In fact it's much easier than the UK markets for the bigger meetings.
For US racing I'm testing a backing strategy. As I lost so much with Betfair when I used to arb US racing, in theory, I should win backing the horses I would have laid when I had bookie accounts.
How did you lose on arbs?Derek27 wrote: ↑Sat Jun 22, 2019 1:04 pmNo, I'm pretty much a cold trader. AUS trading isn't difficult. In fact it's much easier than the UK markets for the bigger meetings.
For US racing I'm testing a backing strategy. As I lost so much with Betfair when I used to arb US racing, in theory, I should win backing the horses I would have laid when I had bookie accounts.
I haven't. All my accounts have been restricted now. I wish I just placed straight bets with the bookies while I could bet with them, I would have won a lot more. Hopefully if my backing strategy takes off the big wins plus losses will reduce PC.
I'm talking about placing bets on the exchange. I know I won't get the same odds but if my arbing lays on Betfair made quite a massive loss they must be value back bets. Still testing the strategy though.
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Considering Betfair odds are generally considered to be close to true value you'd expect the Betfair account to break even over time, less comms, and the arb profit end up on the bookmaker account. For you to have made a massive loss on the Betfair account you must have some ingenious way of choosing these arbs to ensure the majority of losers stayed on Betfair, Derek.
We've been through this many times before SB. Firstly, there is no such thing as Betfair odds, Betfair offer a range of odds on any particular horse. Secondly, I don't actually choose the arbs, the bookies choose them for me by offering 33-1 on a 2-1 favourite.spreadbetting wrote: ↑Sat Jun 22, 2019 2:58 pmConsidering Betfair odds are generally considered to be close to true value you'd expect the Betfair account to break even over time, less comms, and the arb profit end up on the bookmaker account. For you to have made a massive loss on the Betfair account you must have some ingenious way of choosing these arbs to ensure the majority of losers stayed on Betfair, Derek.
viewtopic.php?p=172751#p172751
I don't believe BSP are close to true value, they just average out as true value, like alternating between 5/4 and 4/5 heads and tails. In any case I don't think it's applicable to low-liquid US markets.
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Regardless of whether there's such a thing as Betfair odds for you to make a 'massive loss' on Betfair you'd have to be laying well over the true odds within that 'range' as simply laying at random into a 100% ish book should return a small loss over time. At least you must have kept a few backers happy throwing away so much value in those low liquidity markets and a few bookie odds compilers livid for continually throwing away value to you on low liquidity markets..Derek27 wrote: ↑Sat Jun 22, 2019 3:17 pmWe've been through this many times before SB. Firstly, there is no such thing as Betfair odds, Betfair offer a range of odds on any particular horse. Secondly, I don't actually choose the arbs, the bookies choose them for me by offering 33-1 on a 2-1 favourite.
viewtopic.php?p=172751#p172751
I don't believe BSP are close to true value, they just average out as true value, like alternating between 5/4 and 4/5 heads and tails. In any case I don't think it's applicable to low-liquid US markets.
I'd be very surprised if anything was actually laid at 34's, Derek. We've all seen advertised prices that you can never get on at.
I think you're forgetting we're talking US horseracing, not football - unless you have experience betting on it with bookies you wouldn't know what you can get on. In case you hadn't noticed a 5/1 opener was pushed out to 33/1 so they were genuine odds and William Hill was obviously clueless about the horses' chances.spreadbetting wrote: ↑Sat Jun 22, 2019 3:38 pmI'd be very surprised if anything was actually laid at 34's, Derek. We've all seen advertised prices that you can never get on at.
I've managed to get over £100 (without pushing the limits so I don't know how much I could have got on) on horses over 2/1 and traded them at odds on. I've got £50 on at 16/1 and traded it at 5.5.
(Thanks for distracting me SB, I've just got 12 ticks out of the fav at Newmarket while I wasn't paying attention.)
Odds comparison sites are often out-of-date and need to be treated with caution but I've never had an issue with a bookie not offering the price they advertised unless the price is genuinely crashing on the exchange. I've no doubt I could have had 33/1 if I was quick enough, and even if it was £10-20 I would be happy enough with that.
I've explained the reasons why I think I'm laying at backers value in the old post I linked - it's the desperation to close trade in a low-liquid market. Using a backing only strategy I won't have that problem, I can either take it or leave it.