Today's Horse Racing
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SeaHorseRacing
- Posts: 2893
- Joined: Fri May 20, 2016 7:06 pm
I have found a runner today which has given me an erection. Literally!!
Will give a write up about it for you all, as it could give some of you d.o.bers an insight to picking what most will think are unlikely d.obs but probably will.
Will give a write up about it for you all, as it could give some of you d.o.bers an insight to picking what most will think are unlikely d.obs but probably will.
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SeaHorseRacing
- Posts: 2893
- Joined: Fri May 20, 2016 7:06 pm
2.55 Nottingham
Classified Stakes race.
#Firstly- Weak type of race.
Favourite- Austin Powers, rated 70. Only run 4 days ago, this is a huge ask for a lowly rated horse. Mark Johnston typically over runs his horses and being turned out 4 days later on this particular runner imo is not good.
As I do most evenings, I scan through the cards leaving a slight impact on my memory but have a thorough look in the mornings. Only noted last night what a weak race it was and that I didnt really like Austin Powers.
Mashaheer caught my eye. After than seeing its price I was kind of mythed how this horse could be so short. I expect this horse to make big improvements but this wouldnt be a bet for me. After considering Mashaheer I was looking for reasons to back it and by doing so thoroughly worked through each runner.
I than noticed GABRIALS CENTURION.
(Kaching!)
First glance his form is pretty shite. Just one tiny closer look I can make a case this horse will win with ease.
24th Aug over 6f- Made his debut at 7/1 finishing 5/8. Nothing too bad, a fair price and fair performance which is expected from any newcomer.
It was when i spotted the horse was Gelded 6 days later. (30 Aug)
On 2 September 10 days after its debut and only 4!!! days after its gelding op he ran again.
Gelding ops are something I have spent a lot of time researching and quick turnouts from operations are very big negatives from a chance to win perceptive. Would you take your dog for a walk around the park if he was castrated 3/4 days ago?
On that immediate start after the op he was priced 25/1 he came 5/7 at Chester. He was stepped up to 7f. Worth noting he was drawn 5th and only finished 5 lengths behind the winner. 1st run fished 8 lengths behind and managed to make some improvement against better opposition next time alll whilst being gelded in between.
So far on his first two starts, imo we could only expect this horse to seriously regress temporarily, Gelded, poorly drawn and a stronger race.
He is than turned out 14 days later. 16 Sept again at Chester this time over 6 furlongs on heavy ground. Firstly, if this horse is a quick ground horse, the trainers either planning a winner (fiddling) or hes a F***** idiot.
Its David O'meara so I can only assume is planning this horse for a nice sunny day.
We all know about massive draw bias a Chester, unless your drawn low your seriously up against it. Hes drawn 8 out of a possible 9. He finished 4/9 and 7 lengths behind the winner. The bare look this isnt good form but when you look deeper this is pretty impressive.
Maybe he likes Soft/heavy ground?
I would of personally given this horse a 40/50 day break.. ran him on the AW in the winter and save him for next year.... nope.
2 Weeks later hes entered again. This time a class 2. Which is a massive jump in grades, so the trainer clearly thinks he has some ability. However, he is declared a non runner- Accounted for the "Heavy" Ground.
So it would be fair to say that his previous run where he finished 4/9 he didnt want heavy ground, so this form looks even stronger to me.
He is now entered to run just a week later at Musselbough. This time hes a non runner for not eaten up. Completely expected. This horse has been given nothing whatsoever to come forward or make any impact. IMO this is when he should have had his winter break.
But no, trainer runs him this 3 weeks later at Leicester, for the first time hes now running from sharp tracks to a galloping track. Back up in trip over 7f. To note it is good to soft. Whether he handles good to soft I dont know, but we know he probably doesnt like soft. Looking at his breeding you could argue Good or quicker is ideal.
He finished 6 out of 17 and only 2 lengths behind the winner, imo this is a performance worth noting. This horse should have regressed but put up arguably its best perfomance to date.
We can assume he was at odds on good to soft.
We can assume he was at odds because hes tackled so much so early without any time to develop.
I would suggest hes clearly talented and clearly suited by a galloping track. If he went from his maiden straight to his last race I think its likely he would have won.
This horse is now under Richard Fahey, I dont know the reasons for the change of yards but I can certainly see why, if it was my horse Id would move it too, unless I was part of the plan. But if it was a plan you wouldnt risk damaging this horse.
Today hes had a 200 day break and is now upped in trip further running on what I think is the surface he wants.
I will be incredibly disappointed if he doesnt win today.
I have only one concern, it is very possible he could be a non trier today as Fahey might be out to just give him a run today.
18s on the exchanges is madness.
The 5lb clamier suggest they will go for the win.
Classified Stakes race.
#Firstly- Weak type of race.
Favourite- Austin Powers, rated 70. Only run 4 days ago, this is a huge ask for a lowly rated horse. Mark Johnston typically over runs his horses and being turned out 4 days later on this particular runner imo is not good.
As I do most evenings, I scan through the cards leaving a slight impact on my memory but have a thorough look in the mornings. Only noted last night what a weak race it was and that I didnt really like Austin Powers.
Mashaheer caught my eye. After than seeing its price I was kind of mythed how this horse could be so short. I expect this horse to make big improvements but this wouldnt be a bet for me. After considering Mashaheer I was looking for reasons to back it and by doing so thoroughly worked through each runner.
I than noticed GABRIALS CENTURION.
(Kaching!)First glance his form is pretty shite. Just one tiny closer look I can make a case this horse will win with ease.
24th Aug over 6f- Made his debut at 7/1 finishing 5/8. Nothing too bad, a fair price and fair performance which is expected from any newcomer.
It was when i spotted the horse was Gelded 6 days later. (30 Aug)
On 2 September 10 days after its debut and only 4!!! days after its gelding op he ran again.
Gelding ops are something I have spent a lot of time researching and quick turnouts from operations are very big negatives from a chance to win perceptive. Would you take your dog for a walk around the park if he was castrated 3/4 days ago?
On that immediate start after the op he was priced 25/1 he came 5/7 at Chester. He was stepped up to 7f. Worth noting he was drawn 5th and only finished 5 lengths behind the winner. 1st run fished 8 lengths behind and managed to make some improvement against better opposition next time alll whilst being gelded in between.
So far on his first two starts, imo we could only expect this horse to seriously regress temporarily, Gelded, poorly drawn and a stronger race.
He is than turned out 14 days later. 16 Sept again at Chester this time over 6 furlongs on heavy ground. Firstly, if this horse is a quick ground horse, the trainers either planning a winner (fiddling) or hes a F***** idiot.
Its David O'meara so I can only assume is planning this horse for a nice sunny day.
We all know about massive draw bias a Chester, unless your drawn low your seriously up against it. Hes drawn 8 out of a possible 9. He finished 4/9 and 7 lengths behind the winner. The bare look this isnt good form but when you look deeper this is pretty impressive.
Maybe he likes Soft/heavy ground?
I would of personally given this horse a 40/50 day break.. ran him on the AW in the winter and save him for next year.... nope.
2 Weeks later hes entered again. This time a class 2. Which is a massive jump in grades, so the trainer clearly thinks he has some ability. However, he is declared a non runner- Accounted for the "Heavy" Ground.
So it would be fair to say that his previous run where he finished 4/9 he didnt want heavy ground, so this form looks even stronger to me.
He is now entered to run just a week later at Musselbough. This time hes a non runner for not eaten up. Completely expected. This horse has been given nothing whatsoever to come forward or make any impact. IMO this is when he should have had his winter break.
But no, trainer runs him this 3 weeks later at Leicester, for the first time hes now running from sharp tracks to a galloping track. Back up in trip over 7f. To note it is good to soft. Whether he handles good to soft I dont know, but we know he probably doesnt like soft. Looking at his breeding you could argue Good or quicker is ideal.
He finished 6 out of 17 and only 2 lengths behind the winner, imo this is a performance worth noting. This horse should have regressed but put up arguably its best perfomance to date.
We can assume he was at odds on good to soft.
We can assume he was at odds because hes tackled so much so early without any time to develop.
I would suggest hes clearly talented and clearly suited by a galloping track. If he went from his maiden straight to his last race I think its likely he would have won.
This horse is now under Richard Fahey, I dont know the reasons for the change of yards but I can certainly see why, if it was my horse Id would move it too, unless I was part of the plan. But if it was a plan you wouldnt risk damaging this horse.
Today hes had a 200 day break and is now upped in trip further running on what I think is the surface he wants.
I will be incredibly disappointed if he doesnt win today.
I have only one concern, it is very possible he could be a non trier today as Fahey might be out to just give him a run today.
18s on the exchanges is madness.
The 5lb clamier suggest they will go for the win.
A very interesting right up thank youSeaHorseRacing wrote: ↑Tue May 22, 2018 1:07 pm2.55 Nottingham
Classified Stakes race.
#Firstly- Weak type of race.
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ShaunWhite
- Posts: 9731
- Joined: Sat Sep 03, 2016 3:42 am
What price should this one be?SeaHorseRacing wrote: ↑Tue May 22, 2018 1:07 pmGABRIALS CENTURION.
it is very possible he could be a non trier today
And what price would you put on it being a non trier.
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SeaHorseRacing
- Posts: 2893
- Joined: Fri May 20, 2016 7:06 pm
20/25% chance- 4-5/1.
Good question, I really don't know but will be able to tell after the race. I would favour slightly more that it will try.
Good question, I really don't know but will be able to tell after the race. I would favour slightly more that it will try.
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ShaunWhite
- Posts: 9731
- Joined: Sat Sep 03, 2016 3:42 am
SeaHorseRacing wrote: ↑Tue May 22, 2018 2:05 pmI really don't know but will be able to tell after the race.
Cheers, do you think the 4/1 already factors in the non-trier element?
Or should it be 8/1 with additional 50/50 risk it won't go for it.
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BetScalper
- Posts: 1139
- Joined: Sun Jul 02, 2017 10:47 pm
Its being backed in the place market, 3.3 to 2.84.