Today's Horse Racing
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SeaHorseRacing
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SeaHorseRacing wrote: ↑Thu Jan 11, 2018 7:44 pmHappy days. Im on only at SP 3/1
as I dont mix my gambling and trading on BF.
Smarkets
my value system picked it up about 20 mins after you mentioned it at 5.00 too
You take SP?SeaHorseRacing wrote: ↑Thu Jan 11, 2018 7:44 pmHappy days
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SeaHorseRacing
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Thing is when I used to bet on exchanges it really f up my trading. So i tend to use just a highstreet bookie and the odd telephone to place a bet. Part of my trading rules was not to bet during trading hours so i tend to get on out and get on in the mornings. The odd occasion i use Betdaq but emergency layoff money there ready for a bf crash plus my betdaq account is not even mine thanks to Ladbrokes buying them. These mergers are getting ridiculous... lucky paddy power havent raised an issue yet to get me closed down.RicHep365 wrote: ↑Thu Jan 11, 2018 7:54 pmSeaHorseRacing wrote: ↑Thu Jan 11, 2018 7:44 pmHappy days
Smarkets
my value system picked it up about 20 mins after you mentioned it at 5.00 too
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SeaHorseRacing
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Cant get on with a price anymore without great difficuilty.LinusP wrote: ↑Thu Jan 11, 2018 8:02 pmYou take SP?SeaHorseRacing wrote: ↑Thu Jan 11, 2018 7:44 pmHappy days
SHR - Yes tonight was the night
but "fidled" suggests there has been collusion by connections to darken or misrepresent this horses ability to the BHA , betting public and the general horse racing industry of which Don Cantillon and his team are proudly part of. If you knew that the horse was a serial hard puller , who at one time had Champion hurdle aspirations , severe leg trouble , several operations and at one point , was touch and go whether it would race again. Would you use the same words in your asessment of the race.? Kirby was booked tonight because the horse needs strong handling , as it has a wayward streak and really has no particular run style or trip. He is by Westerner though , which suggests a tendency to stay and stay well , irrespective of Flat or NH racing.
It was a tremendous job by Don and the team tonight with a horse who even if showed a glimmer of its past ability in this very weak field should have been clear. And there were still doubts.
The real work was in the care and welfare of this horse and in every race , every day there are a thousand similar stories. It is a blood , sweat and tears sport , irrespective of runstyles , pace figures etc etc.
There was no "fidled" or fiddling as i think you mean.
There are real life reasons that WW has never reached the heights he once aspired too but one thing Don never stopped loving him.
One other thing , you will notice that the horse was not prominent tonight like you say he has to be to show his best form - the early pace was quick enough for this grade - but the one that did lead ? - if you search hard enough , and dig a little deeper you will find a connection with that one and DC.
Old men of County Cork tend to scratch each others backs occasionally i am told.
Hope you had your usual on and well done on backing a winner.
BTW - an "away-day" up to Scotland over hurdles where WW has won twice could be on the agenda with an in-between run on the AW.
The horse prefers decent ground though so it could be round about springtime. The horse has found a new lease of life like a lot of Westerners and is very well handicapped over both codes.
but "fidled" suggests there has been collusion by connections to darken or misrepresent this horses ability to the BHA , betting public and the general horse racing industry of which Don Cantillon and his team are proudly part of. If you knew that the horse was a serial hard puller , who at one time had Champion hurdle aspirations , severe leg trouble , several operations and at one point , was touch and go whether it would race again. Would you use the same words in your asessment of the race.? Kirby was booked tonight because the horse needs strong handling , as it has a wayward streak and really has no particular run style or trip. He is by Westerner though , which suggests a tendency to stay and stay well , irrespective of Flat or NH racing.
It was a tremendous job by Don and the team tonight with a horse who even if showed a glimmer of its past ability in this very weak field should have been clear. And there were still doubts.
The real work was in the care and welfare of this horse and in every race , every day there are a thousand similar stories. It is a blood , sweat and tears sport , irrespective of runstyles , pace figures etc etc.
There was no "fidled" or fiddling as i think you mean.
There are real life reasons that WW has never reached the heights he once aspired too but one thing Don never stopped loving him.
One other thing , you will notice that the horse was not prominent tonight like you say he has to be to show his best form - the early pace was quick enough for this grade - but the one that did lead ? - if you search hard enough , and dig a little deeper you will find a connection with that one and DC.
Old men of County Cork tend to scratch each others backs occasionally i am told.
Hope you had your usual on and well done on backing a winner.
BTW - an "away-day" up to Scotland over hurdles where WW has won twice could be on the agenda with an in-between run on the AW.
The horse prefers decent ground though so it could be round about springtime. The horse has found a new lease of life like a lot of Westerners and is very well handicapped over both codes.
Last edited by bobs71 on Thu Jan 11, 2018 8:30 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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SeaHorseRacing
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Although I fully appreciate this horse has issues. What I pinpointed out was it could be a case of anything and I noticed your very point when I had no inside information. I knew just from looking at the form the horse has not been running to its true ability whether that be his fault or not but I knew today he would.bobs71 wrote: ↑Thu Jan 11, 2018 8:09 pmSHR - Yes tonight was the night
but "fidled" suggests there has been collusion by connections to darken or misrepresent this horses ability to the BHA , betting public and the general horse racing industry of which Don Cantillon and his team are proudly part of. If you knew that the horse was a serial hard puller , who at one time had Champion hurdle aspirations , severe leg trouble , several operations and at one point , was touch and go whether it would race again. Would you use the same words in your asessment of the race.? Kirby was booked tonight because the horse needs strong handling , as it has a wayward streak and really has no particular run style or trip. He is by Westerner though , which suggests a tendency to stay and stay well , irrespective of Flat or NH racing.
It was a tremendous job by Don and the team tonight with a horse who even if showed a glimmer of its past ability in this very weak field should have been clear. And there were still doubts.
The real work was in the care and welfare of this horse and in every race , every day there are a thousand similar stories. It is a blood , sweat and tears sport , irrespective of runstyles , pace figures etc etc.
There was no "fidled" or fiddling as i think you mean.
There are real life reasons that WW has never reached the heights he once aspired too but one thing Don never stopped loving him.
One other thing , you will notice that the horse was not prominent tonight like you say he has to be to show his best form - the early pace was quick enough for this grade - but the one that did lead ? - if you search hard enough , and dig a little deeper you will find a connection with that one and DC.
Old men of County Cork tend to scratch each others backs occasionally i am told.
Hope you had your usual on and well done on backing a winner.
With regards to the pace, I was not expecting him to make the running today what I pointed out was a horse who has shown fresh/strong running form over a further distance... to running at the back of the field at distances unlikely to suit had all of a sudden changed. As you have stated from inside info the correct reasoning for this horse. Anyone who says the horse has been running on its merits for the last 10 races are wrong.
However I expect this horse to wear cheekpieces next time and I think it will start to make the running, but that just my opinion.
If you were training horses and had a "nice" horse who wasnt right, lame and doubtful to run again would you really run its handicap mark up when the horse is really fully not fit to go?
It clearly obvious this horse was not "right" and with that in mind they played the game 99% of trainers play and that is run him in unsuited conditions until we feel hes ready. In this case it could well be the unsuited run of races that had made him have his 400 days off, This is not breaking any rules but is a form of fiddling imo.
I think you think I am trying throw shame onto the trainer, I certainly am not but just explaining how the industry works.
A horse can only maintain peak fitness for around 6 weeks, why would anyone run their horse at optimum trip and conditions at all times when they know they use it there advantage and find weak races to win all because of a handicap mark.
Dont take this as obnoxious I am just given my opinion.
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SeaHorseRacing
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Kyllach me in the next is a crazy price at 26 imo
" Anyone who says the horse has been running on its merits for the last 10 races are wrong."
SHR - The horse has been unable to run to his real ability all his career - that is my point!
He usually travelled very headstrong at below or above racing pace which ruined all chance to show and build a racing career running on its merits. Jockeys such as Richard Johnson in the past could not correct this.
To win a Class 6 2 mile Hcap at Chelmsford on Polytrack with a horse purchased with intention of running in hopefully the Champion Hurdle one day was never the plan. Real life issues got in the way.
The horse is a good bit better than its mark tonight and no more , but after 442 days off and then given a very winnable mark of 62 - how does this suggest as you say "fidling"??
Don had the horse well and took advantage - nothing in the past 10 runs had any relevance to tonight's race.
Even the "comeback" run which was expected. - but still not relevant to tonight's race.
Your seeing "stuff" that is not there.
"but I knew today he would."
even DC and his old dog Skip had doubts!!
seriously dangerous type of thinking in this game of estimates and chances mate - to actually "know" from reading a few form lines - even professionals are guessing educated(ly)
SHR - The horse has been unable to run to his real ability all his career - that is my point!
He usually travelled very headstrong at below or above racing pace which ruined all chance to show and build a racing career running on its merits. Jockeys such as Richard Johnson in the past could not correct this.
To win a Class 6 2 mile Hcap at Chelmsford on Polytrack with a horse purchased with intention of running in hopefully the Champion Hurdle one day was never the plan. Real life issues got in the way.
The horse is a good bit better than its mark tonight and no more , but after 442 days off and then given a very winnable mark of 62 - how does this suggest as you say "fidling"??
Don had the horse well and took advantage - nothing in the past 10 runs had any relevance to tonight's race.
Even the "comeback" run which was expected. - but still not relevant to tonight's race.
Your seeing "stuff" that is not there.
"but I knew today he would."
even DC and his old dog Skip had doubts!!
seriously dangerous type of thinking in this game of estimates and chances mate - to actually "know" from reading a few form lines - even professionals are guessing educated(ly)
Last edited by bobs71 on Thu Jan 11, 2018 9:00 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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SeaHorseRacing
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Bob71:
Just want to point something out as I know you respect him but Western Way... He was withdrawn on the 18 May 2016 at 2.41pm approx an hour before racing on the grounds of the ground. It was Good to Soft with showers.
At this point his form had started to slip. With that in mind the trainer ruled the horse out based on the fact it would be usuited on the ground.. However a few runs later it went on to run on Soft going and had previously already shown form on GS ground. Firstly if you can get me an answer why was the horse withdrawn based on the ground conditions when it went on to run after this on similar ground when the trainer knew it would be "unsuited"
Additionally whilst this horse was out of form for 10 runs he had one rune where he finished 2nd on soft ground ironically at 9.5 furlongs... however after that run they decided to run him back in distance to 8f or less. So we have a horse who is way out of form, not showing the front running pulling behavour who clearly likes a longer trip to showing form to then drop the horse back in trip...
My conclusion on this is.. As you state the horse was not "right" or himself, with the trainer knowing that rather then step the horse from 9.5f to say 10f or further they decide to go back to 8f. when the horse has never ever shown anything half decent at that distance or less. Why? most likely because the trainer is a) still unsatisified with him and b) he knows he lame, off colour or whatever.
If this horse was not being fiddled it would be nothing other then common sense to run him either at 9.5f again or further... yet they wait keep running at 8f.... has year and half off running off the pace... bang back at 7f from a long lay off... to finish 2nd.. right he seems better lets step him up in trip.. 1m4f gambled into favouritism... then ironically hes back to pulling the jockeys arm of ("fresh as f****)
Right top notch jockey, weak race 2miles. Wheres my money.
Although no rule breaking it is a type of fiddling.
I would sum up the fact the horse was lame, not right and based on those accounts the trainer put the horse in races that would not suit the running knowing a) he would know when he was right, b) have a better handicap rating c) find a weaker race and know roughly when it will win if it ever comes back to its old self.
I appreciate old form and old expectations this horse was a cheltenham horse however somewhere down the line they hid the fact he was lame. Either way if the horse was genuinly off and lame he should have been tied up in his box and not running. All i can see is a horse not running to his usual self, running in races that are obviously not the right distance. I think if what you say is correct then its clear the trainer took advantage of its animal and running him whilst he was out of form to ensure the horse had a winnable future if it ever came back to itself.
Just want to point something out as I know you respect him but Western Way... He was withdrawn on the 18 May 2016 at 2.41pm approx an hour before racing on the grounds of the ground. It was Good to Soft with showers.
At this point his form had started to slip. With that in mind the trainer ruled the horse out based on the fact it would be usuited on the ground.. However a few runs later it went on to run on Soft going and had previously already shown form on GS ground. Firstly if you can get me an answer why was the horse withdrawn based on the ground conditions when it went on to run after this on similar ground when the trainer knew it would be "unsuited"
Additionally whilst this horse was out of form for 10 runs he had one rune where he finished 2nd on soft ground ironically at 9.5 furlongs... however after that run they decided to run him back in distance to 8f or less. So we have a horse who is way out of form, not showing the front running pulling behavour who clearly likes a longer trip to showing form to then drop the horse back in trip...
My conclusion on this is.. As you state the horse was not "right" or himself, with the trainer knowing that rather then step the horse from 9.5f to say 10f or further they decide to go back to 8f. when the horse has never ever shown anything half decent at that distance or less. Why? most likely because the trainer is a) still unsatisified with him and b) he knows he lame, off colour or whatever.
If this horse was not being fiddled it would be nothing other then common sense to run him either at 9.5f again or further... yet they wait keep running at 8f.... has year and half off running off the pace... bang back at 7f from a long lay off... to finish 2nd.. right he seems better lets step him up in trip.. 1m4f gambled into favouritism... then ironically hes back to pulling the jockeys arm of ("fresh as f****)
Right top notch jockey, weak race 2miles. Wheres my money.
Although no rule breaking it is a type of fiddling.
I would sum up the fact the horse was lame, not right and based on those accounts the trainer put the horse in races that would not suit the running knowing a) he would know when he was right, b) have a better handicap rating c) find a weaker race and know roughly when it will win if it ever comes back to its old self.
I appreciate old form and old expectations this horse was a cheltenham horse however somewhere down the line they hid the fact he was lame. Either way if the horse was genuinly off and lame he should have been tied up in his box and not running. All i can see is a horse not running to his usual self, running in races that are obviously not the right distance. I think if what you say is correct then its clear the trainer took advantage of its animal and running him whilst he was out of form to ensure the horse had a winnable future if it ever came back to itself.
SHR
I am beginning to warm to you
you are asking the right questions and no doubt have a great "enthusiasm" for the game.
you have mentioned in the past that you use times and pace.
But you are under the assumption that when you see a 1 or a 2 in a horses profile - that is "form"
Time is a great seperator as it indicates whether that 1 or 2 is maybe worth a 5 or 6 or using this numbering scale analogy a -2 or -3 which on this scale would be better than a 1 or a 2.
And you will agree that horses of lesser ability will run slower times.
Putting it into weight terms (the universal language of horse racing) there could be as much as 100lbs in difference between a Group 1 and a Seller on the flat and as much again over Jumps but at slower pace. (higher weights)
the 4 length 2nd on Soft at Nottingham really has no worth in the realm of "form"
The horse missed the break , pulled hard ,pulled hard more , pulled hard some more , all within a below racing pace , then when finally given it's head and some encouragement , ran past some already slow horses. The ability shown that day was in the last furlong. No more - no less. So it really only ran 1 furlong on Soft ground.This was no test and inconclusive proof that the horse can act on soft.
Now you mention a run on Good to Soft
There is a great difference between Good to Soft and genuinely Soft ground.
But what does that mean - what difference - texture ?, moisture ? , water content ? rather than go into an explanation of top soil and subsoil layers - the real difference is in the "Time" it takes to get over or through the surface from the start to finish.( and in-between) - as much as 0.75s per furlong in genuine cases.
A horse who has a heriditary preference for good ground will usually act on gd to soft - if well within itself it may even be able to win or finish a close second - especially if we go back to the races where they are "below" racing pace.
BUT - a horse with this kind of preference will always show his BEST form on his preferred ground.
You mention the withdrawel of WW - we both know the official going reports and the methods used to obtain these are flawed in base terms - "Good" conditions can be "Bad" in uneven places , and vice - versa and it is the main reason Phil Bull turned to times for a more accurate estimate - and that is key here - estimate. Putting a one - word label on a length of ground 1 and a half miles long and 40 yds wide is never going to be anything but a guess.
You are still "seeing" stuff that is not there and i mean that in a helpful way.
Instead of "knowing" and working on the definite - try more "estimating" and working within chance.
I am beginning to warm to you
you are asking the right questions and no doubt have a great "enthusiasm" for the game.
you have mentioned in the past that you use times and pace.
But you are under the assumption that when you see a 1 or a 2 in a horses profile - that is "form"
Time is a great seperator as it indicates whether that 1 or 2 is maybe worth a 5 or 6 or using this numbering scale analogy a -2 or -3 which on this scale would be better than a 1 or a 2.
And you will agree that horses of lesser ability will run slower times.
Putting it into weight terms (the universal language of horse racing) there could be as much as 100lbs in difference between a Group 1 and a Seller on the flat and as much again over Jumps but at slower pace. (higher weights)
the 4 length 2nd on Soft at Nottingham really has no worth in the realm of "form"
The horse missed the break , pulled hard ,pulled hard more , pulled hard some more , all within a below racing pace , then when finally given it's head and some encouragement , ran past some already slow horses. The ability shown that day was in the last furlong. No more - no less. So it really only ran 1 furlong on Soft ground.This was no test and inconclusive proof that the horse can act on soft.
Now you mention a run on Good to Soft
There is a great difference between Good to Soft and genuinely Soft ground.
But what does that mean - what difference - texture ?, moisture ? , water content ? rather than go into an explanation of top soil and subsoil layers - the real difference is in the "Time" it takes to get over or through the surface from the start to finish.( and in-between) - as much as 0.75s per furlong in genuine cases.
A horse who has a heriditary preference for good ground will usually act on gd to soft - if well within itself it may even be able to win or finish a close second - especially if we go back to the races where they are "below" racing pace.
BUT - a horse with this kind of preference will always show his BEST form on his preferred ground.
You mention the withdrawel of WW - we both know the official going reports and the methods used to obtain these are flawed in base terms - "Good" conditions can be "Bad" in uneven places , and vice - versa and it is the main reason Phil Bull turned to times for a more accurate estimate - and that is key here - estimate. Putting a one - word label on a length of ground 1 and a half miles long and 40 yds wide is never going to be anything but a guess.
You are still "seeing" stuff that is not there and i mean that in a helpful way.
Instead of "knowing" and working on the definite - try more "estimating" and working within chance.
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SeaHorseRacing
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Just had a look at an excel sheet. The pace for that race was actually very very quick, your correct he simply came second because everything went backwards.
With regards to western way I never looked into this race in any detail until now, All I did was paint a picture but there was just so many vairable to suggest everything was not with intentions of "trying" during a long period. You cannot deny the fact they were saving him for a rainy day.
As some people may not gather, you have to take me with a pinch of salt at times, by the way extremely dislexic so comming accross as "knowing" is most of the time my calculate "estimate" I just strugle to put my words to pad.
Anyway that me for the night, I have a mate in scotland whos been raving about a horse in his morning lot that has come on immensely from a gelding op.. previous form is duck eggs so hopefull to share a nice winner for you guys in early spring!
With regards to western way I never looked into this race in any detail until now, All I did was paint a picture but there was just so many vairable to suggest everything was not with intentions of "trying" during a long period. You cannot deny the fact they were saving him for a rainy day.
As some people may not gather, you have to take me with a pinch of salt at times, by the way extremely dislexic so comming accross as "knowing" is most of the time my calculate "estimate" I just strugle to put my words to pad.
Anyway that me for the night, I have a mate in scotland whos been raving about a horse in his morning lot that has come on immensely from a gelding op.. previous form is duck eggs so hopefull to share a nice winner for you guys in early spring!
SHR
yeah the rainy day was this frosty night!
But all done within the system. If anybody erred it has been the handicapper
As you CORRECTLY pointed out ability is transferrable from code to code. And to give a horse who was rated as high as 130 over hurdles - a mark of 62 - because of a 442 absence!! was quite a rick!
And intention was shown on the comeback race. If i was handicapping and taking into account Don's record (check out the kind of SR he is capable of) then i would have raised him after the Newc. run.
DC is a legend in Newmarket.
And he is no angel - but this was by the book opportunism , with some TLC thrown in,
I reckon on the flat and AW the horse will struggle in the mid 70s but up to that level , if stays sound then can be competitive.
But hurdles will be interesting
yeah the rainy day was this frosty night!But all done within the system. If anybody erred it has been the handicapper
As you CORRECTLY pointed out ability is transferrable from code to code. And to give a horse who was rated as high as 130 over hurdles - a mark of 62 - because of a 442 absence!! was quite a rick!
And intention was shown on the comeback race. If i was handicapping and taking into account Don's record (check out the kind of SR he is capable of) then i would have raised him after the Newc. run.
DC is a legend in Newmarket.
And he is no angel - but this was by the book opportunism , with some TLC thrown in,
I reckon on the flat and AW the horse will struggle in the mid 70s but up to that level , if stays sound then can be competitive.
But hurdles will be interesting