Today's Horse Racing

The sport of kings.
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wearthefoxhat
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Both out with the washing 8-). Although winner not considered, Captain Ryan was good value from top 3. (maybe a 20/80 or E/W)

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Dallas
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15:20 was a perfect definition of how to 'Trade a Road' block
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=GZjMFUCc0aM
danum
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the first at Uttoxeter was interesting

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Euler
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Y, that was curious.

I don't tend to like the summer jumps.
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alexmr2
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danum wrote:
Sat Aug 08, 2020 4:35 pm
the first at Uttoxeter was interesting


Uttox_16.30.PNG
Unbelievable the 2nd fav almost went from 6.0 to 3.0 in under 60 seconds and the market wasn't exactly thin with over £300k matched. Annoying how the spikes spread out disproportionately to the time on the new BF charts
Emmson
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So a winning favourite has shed its lead when winning and probably gonna be thrown out.
TraderFred
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Was annoying in that I watched it happen, thought it was the weight cloth, and put in a lay @ 1.11. Was too late though and race suspended.

I see it got matched at 1.1, no 1.01 though, people obviously saw. Didn’t have sound on, don’t know if the commentator mentioned it.
TraderFred
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Yeah commentator did mention it, just watched replay back. Was pretty obvious really, would have done well to miss that !

Maybe the 1.1 was even matched before it fell out, was still a good opportunity though for anyone with their finger on the button.
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wearthefoxhat
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Still plugging away...

Windsor 1.30 holds up well.

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wearthefoxhat
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Wow..that was a false favourite for sure...

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ruthlessimon
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Smart £25K lay on Cloud Drift - poor execution from him though :mrgreen:
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wearthefoxhat
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Millisle was entitled to be fav, not at that price though. Others offered more value.

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firlandsfarm
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wearthefoxhat wrote:
Sun Aug 09, 2020 4:44 pm
Millisle was entitled to be fav, not at that price though. Others offered more value.


Curr3.40Res.jpg
Hi Foxhat, you seem to have the same problem as me if you don't mind me saying. Your tissue favourites are too long and your outsiders too short! I'm assuming you are working from some ratings … does anyone have a good way to convert a set of ratings into a Book? Articles on the Internet just say 'divide the rating for the runner by the sum of the ratings to get the probability'. That's wrong, that's a %age share calculation not a probability!
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wearthefoxhat
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firlandsfarm wrote:
Mon Aug 10, 2020 5:10 am
wearthefoxhat wrote:
Sun Aug 09, 2020 4:44 pm
Millisle was entitled to be fav, not at that price though. Others offered more value.


Curr3.40Res.jpg
Hi Foxhat, you seem to have the same problem as me if you don't mind me saying. Your tissue favourites are too long and your outsiders too short! I'm assuming you are working from some ratings … does anyone have a good way to convert a set of ratings into a Book? Articles on the Internet just say 'divide the rating for the runner by the sum of the ratings to get the probability'. That's wrong, that's a %age share calculation not a probability!
Good point. Yep, combining key data into points, then a total rating, converted into a tissue price.

It's useful as a guide/indicator for assessment purposes (as ratings are meant to be). Is the favourite in the right range? If not, is there any value in any others in the top half? Conversely, are any of the market leaders in the bottom half? If so, could be L2B types as they are considered weaker selections.

So far, quite pleased with the output/results (anything to find an edge)
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firlandsfarm
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wearthefoxhat wrote:
Mon Aug 10, 2020 8:28 am
firlandsfarm wrote:
Mon Aug 10, 2020 5:10 am
Hi Foxhat, you seem to have the same problem as me if you don't mind me saying. Your tissue favourites are too long and your outsiders too short! I'm assuming you are working from some ratings … does anyone have a good way to convert a set of ratings into a Book? Articles on the Internet just say 'divide the rating for the runner by the sum of the ratings to get the probability'. That's wrong, that's a %age share calculation not a probability!
Good point. Yep, combining key data into points, then a total rating, converted into a tissue price.

It's useful as a guide/indicator for assessment purposes (as ratings are meant to be). Is the favourite in the right range? If not, is there any value in any others in the top half? Conversely, are any of the market leaders in the bottom half? If so, could be L2B types as they are considered weaker selections.

So far, quite pleased with the output/results (anything to find an edge)
Ever since I started betting I've been bemused by how to put together a Tissue Book. Value is all about finding odds higher than they should be as determined by probability. So to use my ratings to their utmost (assuming they are any good!) the holy grail is to try and convert them into a Tissue Book and compare my Tissue odds with whatever the market is offering and maybe take the selection with the best (or worst if laying) value.
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