Today's Horse Racing

[Korattt]

trying scalping using the offset bet.. why does it go in on the other side first?

ah, got it.. fill or kill

[Derek27]

The markets lately have traded more like US markets where it pays to put orders in well away from where the activity is. I should be at home with these markets.

And your defense against recency bias is????

If it's pissing down with rain outside I would take an umbrella, rather than to look at historical weather data and conclude the average day in June in my area is dry and sunny!

[ShaunWhite]

But who needs psych eh?

Once Sergio Canavero transplants Peter's head to mine - & it doesn't improve my trading - then I'll buy Trading in the Zone

If you had his head, presumably you'd have his psychology too?

All the psych stuff isn't just to figure out how you tick, it's to figure out how other people tick. Afterall, we are all just traders of peoples' behaviour.

You might be a flawless psychologically perfect robot, but thankfully most people aren't.

[ShaunWhite]

The markets lately have traded more like US markets where it pays to put orders in well away from where the activity is. I should be at home with these markets.

And your defense against recency bias is????

If it's pissing down with rain outside I would take an umbrella, rather than to look at historical weather data and conclude the average day in June in my area is dry and sunny!

Simon doesn't believe in the here and now Derek, unless it's the same here and now as is proven to have existed >50% of the time there and then I'd counter recency bias with responsiveness in psychology Top Trumps.

[ruthlessimon]

If you had his head, presumably you'd have his psychology too?

You might be a flawless psychologically perfect robot, but thankfully most people aren't.

Hmmm yah.. Just his spreadsheets then

See I'd reword that to:

"Thankfully most people don't have an edge"

I wonder what market comprised of only Peterites would look like. Dull, flat, tepid - No-one would take a price

[Euler]

Loose horse at Chepstow so that's probably messed up the evening.

[Derek27]

She's been caught after galloping two full circuits, it's taken 20 minutes.

[ruthlessimon]

If it's pissing down with rain outside I would take an umbrella, rather than to look at historical weather data and conclude the average day in June in my area is dry and sunny!

I prefer this one.

Disney Florida. Looking outside, & it looks lovely (recently bias). But just over the horizon, there's a hurricane brewing - & the meteorologists can predict when it'll hit, where it'll hit, what the damage will be (wind or flood). Allowing resistents to either flee or budget on protection (i..e board-up windows or sandbags etc).

By the time you see the hurricane, without taking the advice of the meteorologists, you'll be dead! No flights, no shops etc.

[Derek27]

Nice reversal.

Mick Thonic, 19-20 Aintree.jpg

Missed this one.

Parthenius.jpg

[Derek27]

If it's pissing down with rain outside I would take an umbrella, rather than to look at historical weather data and conclude the average day in June in my area is dry and sunny!

I prefer this one.

Disney Florida. Looking outside, & it looks lovely (recently bias). But just over the horizon, there's a hurricane brewing - & the meteorologists can predict when it'll hit, where it'll hit, what the damage will be (wind or flood). Allowing resistents to either flee or budget on protection (i..e board-up windows or sandbags etc).

By the time you see the hurricane, without taking the advice of the meteorologists, you'll be dead! No flights, no shops etc.

On a slightly more serious note, the hurricanes are becoming more frequent (global warming), the markets are changing, perhaps permanently.

That race where Shaun got stung on the favourite, I got stung on the second favourite, but I think the entire market moved at the same time. Presumably a big back on the favourite 30 ticks below current price would have Betfair's cross-matching servers at melting point. Previously a big move on one horse would have a significantly slower affect on all the other runners, and I'm beginning to change the way that I trade as a result.

[BetScalper]

Whats going on at Chepstow ?

[Derek27]

Chepstow off 19 minutes late - don't think there's any chance of getting the 21:05 off.

[Dallas]

Whats going on at Chepstow ?

Earlier loose horse decided to do a few laps of honor before the race even started so its put everything back

[BetScalper]

ah ok, thanks, bloody horses.

[Derek27]

One for the notebook I think. Literally sprinted the length of the home straight and stayed on for another two circuits.