? BF vid starts 5mins before scheduled off time.
Today's Horse Racing
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dragontrades
- Posts: 1248
- Joined: Wed Oct 19, 2016 11:22 pm
Enjoying Southwell but not much else today.
I don't know why but I love the flat so much more than the jumps
I don't know why but I love the flat so much more than the jumps
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SeaHorseRacing
- Posts: 2893
- Joined: Fri May 20, 2016 7:06 pm
8.00 Chelmsford.
MARARTHA. Currently 11s on BF.
I have watched the replays back over and over. The horse was a non trier last time out. Certain about that. The two runs before winning and finishing 2nd, not entirely convinced it was asked everything. Been running in considerably stronger races than today, although the runners today look improvers on ratings it's weaker. He's bee 100/3, 13/8, 9/4 and 5/2 on those starts.
My belief today why he's is priced outsider in a 7 runner handicap, is the fact a lot of horses are improvers and have won recently, his previous comments saying he had no extra in last 75 yards. What happened is the Jockey strangled a horse throughout the race, got him in a unfavoured position, asked him to go like a little wimp and gave up 100 yards out.
According to the professionals at the racing post they think he won't stay, His 1st and 2nd a few starts back drew clear of the field.
After assessing all this I have priced him as short as a 6/4 chance, looking at the market they are going 5s the field in a 7 runner race, At least one yard would have fancied their "improving" horse in this race, this gives me considerably more confidence that MARATHA is the one.
Running at Wolver 9.5f for 3 races in a row, they give the horse a shocker, now over 10f on a different surface.
Anyone who fancies this horse, if the money comes for it, I mean really comes I could argue this is an even money shot with betting confidence. Even if goes to 5s, this is a really good bet and I think will just dominate the shit out of this field.
I've had a 100 at 17/2.
MARARTHA. Currently 11s on BF.
I have watched the replays back over and over. The horse was a non trier last time out. Certain about that. The two runs before winning and finishing 2nd, not entirely convinced it was asked everything. Been running in considerably stronger races than today, although the runners today look improvers on ratings it's weaker. He's bee 100/3, 13/8, 9/4 and 5/2 on those starts.
My belief today why he's is priced outsider in a 7 runner handicap, is the fact a lot of horses are improvers and have won recently, his previous comments saying he had no extra in last 75 yards. What happened is the Jockey strangled a horse throughout the race, got him in a unfavoured position, asked him to go like a little wimp and gave up 100 yards out.
According to the professionals at the racing post they think he won't stay, His 1st and 2nd a few starts back drew clear of the field.
After assessing all this I have priced him as short as a 6/4 chance, looking at the market they are going 5s the field in a 7 runner race, At least one yard would have fancied their "improving" horse in this race, this gives me considerably more confidence that MARATHA is the one.
Running at Wolver 9.5f for 3 races in a row, they give the horse a shocker, now over 10f on a different surface.
Anyone who fancies this horse, if the money comes for it, I mean really comes I could argue this is an even money shot with betting confidence. Even if goes to 5s, this is a really good bet and I think will just dominate the shit out of this field.
I've had a 100 at 17/2.
Can't see how you can price him up as a 6/4 chance.. was beaten three and a half lengths by NONIOS last time and wasn't closing on him at the finish .. they meet on the same termsSeaHorseRacing wrote: ↑Thu Feb 22, 2018 4:02 pm8.00 Chelmsford.
MARARTHA. Currently 11s on BF.
I have watched the replays back over and over. The horse was a non trier last time out. Certain about that. The two runs before winning and finishing 2nd, not entirely convinced it was asked everything. Been running in considerably stronger races than today, although the runners today look improvers on ratings it's weaker. He's bee 100/3, 13/8, 9/4 and 5/2 on those starts.
My belief today why he's is priced outsider in a 7 runner handicap, is the fact a lot of horses are improvers and have won recently, his previous comments saying he had no extra in last 75 yards. What happened is the Jockey strangled a horse throughout the race, got him in a unfavoured position, asked him to go like a little wimp and gave up 100 yards out.
According to the professionals at the racing post they think he won't stay, His 1st and 2nd a few starts back drew clear of the field.
After assessing all this I have priced him as short as a 6/4 chance, looking at the market they are going 5s the field in a 7 runner race, At least one yard would have fancied their "improving" horse in this race, this gives me considerably more confidence that MARATHA is the one.
Running at Wolver 9.5f for 3 races in a row, they give the horse a shocker, now over 10f on a different surface.
Anyone who fancies this horse, if the money comes for it, I mean really comes I could argue this is an even money shot with betting confidence. Even if goes to 5s, this is a really good bet and I think will just dominate the shit out of this field.
I've had a 100 at 17/2.
Never won off a rating this high .. on 85 now .. won of 78
No reason why he shouldn't stay .. dam has produced winners over 1m2f plus so wouldn't see that as a problem
The one thing I would say is that he was gelded before he even saw a racecourse ... was Visored on his debut ... and when he won he was immediately sent to the sales ... current owners paid 62,000 guineas for him . And Simon Crisford as soon as he won said he would be going to the sales( read what you want into that ) Then needed his handicap mark to fall and the aid of a tongue tie to get back to winning ways.
Don't think it's a case of the horse being a non trier or the jockey "strangling him" just think he's a difficult ride on occasions.. sometimes races keenly other times comment says " outpaced and has met trouble in running etc
Much rather have MAESTRO MAC and NONIOS
Best of luck tho
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SeaHorseRacing
- Posts: 2893
- Joined: Fri May 20, 2016 7:06 pm
He was a non-trier last time out. It happens nearly on a daily basis this time of year. Get the horse spot on, Deliberately run a shocker bang him at a good price next time.
This a quote from the trainer when it won 3 starts back.
"I've spent the last three or four times trying to get him to settle in"
So we know he wasn't racing him to win prior to that, The in running comments for his recent run is nothing other than someone's quick analysis of a race.
He wasn't keen at all, he looked keen because the jockey took him away from second to the back of the field.
We will know if they are having it off because these sort of "fiddles" money usually comes late.
If you took away his last race, what price would he be today? I truly believe if they ran this race 100 times he would win 40 of them. I also think there are horses in here today being fiddled (expecting a few not to show up)
They have priced this horse as an exposed 9 year old. This horse has had only 13 starts in his entire life, nearly every other runner is technically more exposed. The price is madness. This is all because the false favourite beat it last time.
Havent priced it for fun, serious here.
This a quote from the trainer when it won 3 starts back.
"I've spent the last three or four times trying to get him to settle in"
So we know he wasn't racing him to win prior to that, The in running comments for his recent run is nothing other than someone's quick analysis of a race.
He wasn't keen at all, he looked keen because the jockey took him away from second to the back of the field.
We will know if they are having it off because these sort of "fiddles" money usually comes late.
If you took away his last race, what price would he be today? I truly believe if they ran this race 100 times he would win 40 of them. I also think there are horses in here today being fiddled (expecting a few not to show up)
They have priced this horse as an exposed 9 year old. This horse has had only 13 starts in his entire life, nearly every other runner is technically more exposed. The price is madness. This is all because the false favourite beat it last time.
Havent priced it for fun, serious here.
SeaHorseRacing wrote: ↑Thu Feb 22, 2018 7:25 pmHe was a non-trier last time out. It happens nearly on a daily basis this time of year. Get the horse spot on, Deliberately run a shocker bang him at a good price next time.
This a quote from the trainer when it won 3 starts back.
"I've spent the last three or four times trying to get him to settle in"
So we know he wasn't racing him to win prior to that, The in running comments for his recent run is nothing other than someone's quick analysis of a race.
He wasn't keen at all, he looked keen because the jockey took him away from second to the back of the field.
We will know if they are having it off because these sort of "fiddles" money usually comes late.
If you took away his last race, what price would he be today? I truly believe if they ran this race 100 times he would win 40 of them. I also think there are horses in here today being fiddled (expecting a few not to show up)
They have priced this horse as an exposed 9 year old. This horse has had only 13 starts in his entire life, nearly every other runner is technically more exposed. The price is madness. This is all because the false favourite beat it last time.
Havent priced it for fun, serious here.
Think the simple fact might be that he's just too high in the handicap,and ain't going to improve enough to win off his current rating
He is rated 85 ....6 runs when he has been rated 80 + and no wins ... he only won his second race when he dropped to below 80
Sometimes we all can try to find other reasons but often it's just a case of the horses rating being too high or racing in the wrong class etc
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ShaunWhite
- Posts: 9731
- Joined: Sat Sep 03, 2016 3:42 am
Short answer, maybe.
But if you're waiting to trigger a bet at a price and the price falls quickly and doesn't rebound, then almost certainly not. If you watch a few IP markets you'll soon see how it works.
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SeaHorseRacing
- Posts: 2893
- Joined: Fri May 20, 2016 7:06 pm
Got everything right but didnt back my other opinion.
Pace looks initially slow.
Pace forecast in order of draw.
1) OURMULLION 2
2) MAESTRO MAC 1
3) Non-Runner
4) CAPTAIN PUGWASH 4
5) THAQAFFA 6
6) SHAMROKH 6
7) MARATHA 3
8) NONIOS 9
Looks a very slowly run race here.
1. MARATHA
Best runs, track leaders to midfield. Should have no problem getting a good position from a poor draw. Been well fancied in last 4 starts. This looks a real plan. Conniving bastards. Gamble here will be biggest sign.
R1- Gave up easily. Non trier
R2- Strong run. Front two drew clear from the rest.
R3- Drew clear. Strong ride.
2. NONIOS
All wins are held up. Nothing obvious here, has CD form. Beat Maratha last time but the result will most likely reverse.
R1- Tried hard to win
3. THAQAFFA
Best performances over 1m midfield/held up. Makes all on 1m. Drop back to 10f a concern. Having 4th start with a hood. Is he a non trier today?
R1- Took some time to get going.
R2- Won nicely, nothing standing out.
4. SHAMROKH
Most wins held up but has made all. Very lightly race over this distance. 5th run with tongue tie and 4th run with cheek pieces.
R1- Moves nicely. Tried.
R2- Front two drew clear.
5. Non-Runner
6. MAESTRO MAC
Front run wins. Looks to be suited by a slowly run race. Interesting win from a break last time, might come forward further. Adam Kirby ridding Thaqaffa can’t make weight for this horse. Excellent record over the All weather and best performance arguably here. Still room to improve but concerns hes a non trier today.
R1- Ran well like a professional.
R2- Won eased in the end.
7. OURMULLION
Wins and best performance are front runs. Looks to be suited by a slowly run race. Interesting turn around today, expect a better performance today. Drop back to 10f interesting. First time cheek pieces over this distance won two in a row. Had a couple of break since the wins and likely to have been some issues, encouraging run last time out. Looks like Josephine Gordon has chosen Maestro Mac, can win this if they go slow.
R1- Not a massive trier likely to come on for run.
8. CAPTAIN PUGWASH
Wins are held up. Could be more to come winning on big step on distance last time. Favourite at first attempt at 10f and ran a shocker, won over 10f last time. Could be more to come. 2 from 2 at Chelmsford. Improving horse who is lightly raced and a 5lb claimer today.
R1- Ran well but not eye catching.
Pace looks initially slow.
Pace forecast in order of draw.
1) OURMULLION 2
2) MAESTRO MAC 1
3) Non-Runner
4) CAPTAIN PUGWASH 4
5) THAQAFFA 6
6) SHAMROKH 6
7) MARATHA 3
8) NONIOS 9
Looks a very slowly run race here.
1. MARATHA
Best runs, track leaders to midfield. Should have no problem getting a good position from a poor draw. Been well fancied in last 4 starts. This looks a real plan. Conniving bastards. Gamble here will be biggest sign.
R1- Gave up easily. Non trier
R2- Strong run. Front two drew clear from the rest.
R3- Drew clear. Strong ride.
2. NONIOS
All wins are held up. Nothing obvious here, has CD form. Beat Maratha last time but the result will most likely reverse.
R1- Tried hard to win
3. THAQAFFA
Best performances over 1m midfield/held up. Makes all on 1m. Drop back to 10f a concern. Having 4th start with a hood. Is he a non trier today?
R1- Took some time to get going.
R2- Won nicely, nothing standing out.
4. SHAMROKH
Most wins held up but has made all. Very lightly race over this distance. 5th run with tongue tie and 4th run with cheek pieces.
R1- Moves nicely. Tried.
R2- Front two drew clear.
5. Non-Runner
6. MAESTRO MAC
Front run wins. Looks to be suited by a slowly run race. Interesting win from a break last time, might come forward further. Adam Kirby ridding Thaqaffa can’t make weight for this horse. Excellent record over the All weather and best performance arguably here. Still room to improve but concerns hes a non trier today.
R1- Ran well like a professional.
R2- Won eased in the end.
7. OURMULLION
Wins and best performance are front runs. Looks to be suited by a slowly run race. Interesting turn around today, expect a better performance today. Drop back to 10f interesting. First time cheek pieces over this distance won two in a row. Had a couple of break since the wins and likely to have been some issues, encouraging run last time out. Looks like Josephine Gordon has chosen Maestro Mac, can win this if they go slow.
R1- Not a massive trier likely to come on for run.
8. CAPTAIN PUGWASH
Wins are held up. Could be more to come winning on big step on distance last time. Favourite at first attempt at 10f and ran a shocker, won over 10f last time. Could be more to come. 2 from 2 at Chelmsford. Improving horse who is lightly raced and a 5lb claimer today.
R1- Ran well but not eye catching.
I would strongly advise you not to place £200 when you're experimenting and learning to trade. You could just as easily find out if the price reaches it with a £2 bet.
It all depends on how the horse runs and whether or not anyone wants to take your bet.