Today's Horse Racing

[ruthlessimon]

Smart £25K lay on Cloud Drift - poor execution from him though

[wearthefoxhat]

Millisle was entitled to be fav, not at that price though. Others offered more value.

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[firlandsfarm]

Millisle was entitled to be fav, not at that price though. Others offered more value.


Curr3.40Res.jpg

Hi Foxhat, you seem to have the same problem as me if you don't mind me saying. Your tissue favourites are too long and your outsiders too short! I'm assuming you are working from some ratings … does anyone have a good way to convert a set of ratings into a Book? Articles on the Internet just say 'divide the rating for the runner by the sum of the ratings to get the probability'. That's wrong, that's a %age share calculation not a probability!

[wearthefoxhat]

Millisle was entitled to be fav, not at that price though. Others offered more value.


Curr3.40Res.jpg

Hi Foxhat, you seem to have the same problem as me if you don't mind me saying. Your tissue favourites are too long and your outsiders too short! I'm assuming you are working from some ratings … does anyone have a good way to convert a set of ratings into a Book? Articles on the Internet just say 'divide the rating for the runner by the sum of the ratings to get the probability'. That's wrong, that's a %age share calculation not a probability!

Good point. Yep, combining key data into points, then a total rating, converted into a tissue price.

It's useful as a guide/indicator for assessment purposes (as ratings are meant to be). Is the favourite in the right range? If not, is there any value in any others in the top half? Conversely, are any of the market leaders in the bottom half? If so, could be L2B types as they are considered weaker selections.

So far, quite pleased with the output/results (anything to find an edge)

[firlandsfarm]

Hi Foxhat, you seem to have the same problem as me if you don't mind me saying. Your tissue favourites are too long and your outsiders too short! I'm assuming you are working from some ratings … does anyone have a good way to convert a set of ratings into a Book? Articles on the Internet just say 'divide the rating for the runner by the sum of the ratings to get the probability'. That's wrong, that's a %age share calculation not a probability!

Good point. Yep, combining key data into points, then a total rating, converted into a tissue price.

It's useful as a guide/indicator for assessment purposes (as ratings are meant to be). Is the favourite in the right range? If not, is there any value in any others in the top half? Conversely, are any of the market leaders in the bottom half? If so, could be L2B types as they are considered weaker selections.

So far, quite pleased with the output/results (anything to find an edge)

Ever since I started betting I've been bemused by how to put together a Tissue Book. Value is all about finding odds higher than they should be as determined by probability. So to use my ratings to their utmost (assuming they are any good!) the holy grail is to try and convert them into a Tissue Book and compare my Tissue odds with whatever the market is offering and maybe take the selection with the best (or worst if laying) value.

[wearthefoxhat]

Hi Foxhat, you seem to have the same problem as me if you don't mind me saying. Your tissue favourites are too long and your outsiders too short! I'm assuming you are working from some ratings … does anyone have a good way to convert a set of ratings into a Book? Articles on the Internet just say 'divide the rating for the runner by the sum of the ratings to get the probability'. That's wrong, that's a %age share calculation not a probability!

Good point. Yep, combining key data into points, then a total rating, converted into a tissue price.

It's useful as a guide/indicator for assessment purposes (as ratings are meant to be). Is the favourite in the right range? If not, is there any value in any others in the top half? Conversely, are any of the market leaders in the bottom half? If so, could be L2B types as they are considered weaker selections.

So far, quite pleased with the output/results (anything to find an edge)

Ever since I started betting I've been bemused by how to put together a Tissue Book. Value is all about finding odds higher than they should be as determined by probability. So to use my ratings to their utmost (assuming they are any good!) the holy grail is to try and convert them into a Tissue Book and compare my Tissue odds with whatever the market is offering and maybe take the selection with the best (or worst if laying) value.

One book I read that gave me a kick start (back in the day) was/is Mark Coton - One Hundred Hints For Better Betting (1994) ISBN 1 871093 67 8

He wrote about his attempts as a betting pro, outlining his approach. It was a prelude to the Postdata tables (I believe he started in Racing Post)

Hint 36 - Learn how to compile a betting forecast. Page 62

1.Aim for the prices of the first 6 in the betting to add up to 100% (bookies do the same)
2.Aim to identify the likely favourite of the race
3.Ask yourself at which price you would become interested in backing the horse.

He has a list of 18 points/rules.

Of course all this is before Betfair, so punters only had the option for backing a selection. My preference is to Lay trade where possible.

[wearthefoxhat]

Oooh. that worked out well. as Pride of Parish scoots away.

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[firlandsfarm]

Thanks Foxhat, I'll see if I can have a read. it's a subject I have nibbled at randomly when something stirs me into activity like now!

[Eyesnack]

Hi Fox

Keep up the good work my cards can be D/L from here https://www.dropbox.com/s/k02csj2kovgo8 ... 0.pdf?dl=0

[wearthefoxhat]

Thanks Foxhat, I'll see if I can have a read. it's a subject I have nibbled at randomly when something stirs me into activity like now!

Yep, I've dipped in and out over the years too. Then, on reading an article or doing a piece of research, it seems to falls into place.

[wearthefoxhat]

Hi Fox

Keep up the good work my cards can be D/L from here https://www.dropbox.com/s/k02csj2kovgo8 ... 0.pdf?dl=0

Nice work there Eyesnack.

[firlandsfarm]

Hi Fox

Keep up the good work my cards can be D/L from here https://www.dropbox.com/s/k02csj2kovgo8 ... 0.pdf?dl=0

Hi Eyesnack, first time I've been aware of your cards … is there a "how to read" instruction set I can have a look at please. I can work out most but just to make sure I don't make a wrong assumption.

[Eyesnack]

Yeah sure just download from here https://www.dropbox.com/s/ul2s315hc2xk0 ... y.pdf?dl=0

[firlandsfarm]

Yeah sure just download from here https://www.dropbox.com/s/ul2s315hc2xk0 ... y.pdf?dl=0

Thanks, I'll look Mavis over!

[TraderFred]

415 Southwell abandoned, they are running the last two races (445 & 520) on time though apparently.