I knew what you meant it for buddy
The sport of kings.
Good stuff I don't think the stick you get is fair, or even particularly kind, hope that shuts em up for a while.
Last edited by Trading96 on Thu Feb 08, 2018 7:34 pm, edited 1 time in total.
Very lucky there .. Billyoakes should have won that with ease .. usually front runs . Fell out of the stalls and met so much trouble in running .. but well done .. you needed a lot of luck tho to win that !!
But Billyoaks didnt win with ease because I knew.Halliday wrote: ↑Thu Feb 08, 2018 7:34 pmVery lucky there .. Billyoakes should have won that with ease .. usually front runs . Fell out of the stalls and met so much trouble in running .. but well done .. you needed a lot of luck tho to win that !!
1)Billyoaks IMO had the second best chance in that race but,
2)Monarchs Maid was a real tryer
3)The pace was going to cause more harm to the horse.
I worked on 4 scenarios and Monarchs maid came out top 3 times, and the only time it didnt was because Billyoaks had the very slightly better speed rating.
In hindsight, Billyoaks was the better horse but on the merits on the race it couldnt win.
Additionally the market priced the race wrong, that race should have been priced with an even-money favourite at worst. They opened up about 5 the field. The market makers made a big mistake.
This doesnt mean to sound aragont either.
Let me explain why I backed it.
There were reason i dont really want to say but I had made the conclusion that Monarch Maid was a horse planned for this race.
After looking at the speed stats I knew there was only two likely winners (bar freak)
Monarch Maid and Billyoaks speed ratings were considerably higher then the field.
I had 4 scenarios
1) Billyoaks was the better horse just on speed ratings however he could only win if he had an uncontested lead. It couldnt happen
2)If billyoaks led, he would have been pressed by two horses, hes been beaten every time this has happened and would happen again
3) If billyoaks was held back or broke poorly, he didnt have the class to pass them.
4) Monarchs maid was planned to win this race and Jockey was always going to his upmost.
Sometimes one horse has complete control over the pace of the race, no matter what he did he was going to come under. It should have been a fast pace. If billyoaks broke well, the pace would have been to fast, monarchs maid would have picked him off following him in 2nd or 4th.
If billyoaks didnt broke well or was held back, he would not have been able to pass a very muddling race which I reckon turned out slow.
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