Trading Horse racing : Today's Racing

The sport of kings.
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Dallas
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Sun Aug 19, 2018 11:53 am

Full card of PA races at Chelmsford today which you will likely want to avoid

Jukebox
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Sun Aug 19, 2018 12:22 pm

LOL all that untapped potential.

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bennyboy351
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Location: West Midlands, England.

Sun Aug 19, 2018 12:57 pm

Dallas wrote:
Sun Aug 19, 2018 11:53 am
Full card of PA races at Chelmsford today which you will likely want to avoid
Hi Dallas,
Serious question from a relative newbie; why would you wish to avoid PA races? :-)

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Dallas
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Sun Aug 19, 2018 1:26 pm

bennyboy351 wrote:
Sun Aug 19, 2018 12:57 pm
Dallas wrote:
Sun Aug 19, 2018 11:53 am
Full card of PA races at Chelmsford today which you will likely want to avoid
Hi Dallas,
Serious question from a relative newbie; why would you wish to avoid PA races? :-)
A 'PA' race is a race for purebred Arabian horses. they are very different from thoroughbred horses, therefore, they have their own races which are lower profile and attract a lot less liquidity

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ruthlessimon
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Sun Aug 19, 2018 2:27 pm

iambic_pentameter wrote:
Wed Aug 15, 2018 9:00 am
The 'sensible' option would be to take the loss but as we all know, sometimes the move corrects itself and goes back to where it was previously.
The sensible option? This is why I lol @ psychology - especially when it's branded around by traders who have a meticulous quantitative understanding of the market *cough* Peter *cough*

It's all about knowing the right thing to do, given this information

What's the right thing to do when the back bet spikes the short fav 10ticks? What's the right thing to do when a lay bet spikes the 3rd 20 ticks? What's the right thing to do when the fav spikes down 2 ticks?

Peter would know those answers - so there's no excuse for us not knowing

If someone doesn't know those answers, I think it's extremely unfair (& wrong) to blame their psychology.

spreadbetting
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Sun Aug 19, 2018 2:49 pm

ruthlessimon wrote:
Sun Aug 19, 2018 2:27 pm
What's the right thing to do when the back bet spikes the short fav 10ticks? What's the right thing to do when a lay bet spikes the 3rd 20 ticks? What's the right thing to do when the fav spikes down 2 ticks?

Peter would know those answers - so there's no excuse for us not knowing

If someone doesn't know those answers, I think it's extremely unfair (& wrong) to blame their psychology.

I think you're barking up the wrong tree if you're assuming Peter has some kind of list showing him what to do if a fav moves 10 ticks, Simon. Manual trading is a lot more intuitive and you don't look at moves in isolation, you take the market as a whole to decide if moves will be sustained. I'd be very surprised if Peter has all this information regarding singular ticks moves you assume he has.

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PDC
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Sun Aug 19, 2018 2:52 pm

Betfair just failed to turn the Group 1 in France inplay when they jumped and then suspended rather than turn it inplay after several furlongs.

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PDC
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Sun Aug 19, 2018 3:12 pm

God knows how they worked out the SP's in that Group 1 but it was no way near what they should have been. Complete joke of an sp.

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ruthlessimon
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Sun Aug 19, 2018 3:26 pm

spreadbetting wrote:
Sun Aug 19, 2018 2:49 pm
I think you're barking up the wrong tree if you're assuming Peter has some kind of list showing him what to do if a fav moves 10 ticks, Simon. I'd be very surprised if Peter has all this information regarding singular ticks moves you assume he has.
I'm defo not saying my way is the right way & he defo won't have the data in my format (i.e. 10ticks, 11ticks, 12ticks spike etc etc); but I'd be extremely surprised if he hadn't done any form of quantitative work on spikes/speeds of moves
spreadbetting wrote:
Sun Aug 19, 2018 2:49 pm
you take the market as a whole to decide if moves will be sustained.
Absolutely, & the spikes are a small portion of that overall picture. I haven't got a clue how I could merge all the little nuggets I've come across over the yr's into an overarching automated method (yet ;) )

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ruthlessimon
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Sun Aug 19, 2018 3:48 pm

spreadbetting wrote:
Sun Aug 19, 2018 2:49 pm
I think you're barking up the wrong tree if you're assuming Peter has some kind of list showing him what to do if a fav moves 10 ticks
I'd take a stab at saying he's taken it even further. Possibly even modelled exactly what happens after a big spike. For example, people like Iambic - traders caught with their pants down needing to exit (don't know what to do/panic) causing a further continuation - which becomes the real low/high. Just a hypothesis, but I like it :) i.e. after a big spike, just wait for Iambic to puke, then reverse :twisted:

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