Today's Horse Racing
- bennyboy351
- Posts: 332
- Joined: Sat Jun 07, 2014 6:01 pm
- Location: West Midlands, England.
A 'PA' race is a race for purebred Arabian horses. they are very different from thoroughbred horses, therefore, they have their own races which are lower profile and attract a lot less liquiditybennyboy351 wrote: ↑Sun Aug 19, 2018 12:57 pmHi Dallas,
Serious question from a relative newbie; why would you wish to avoid PA races?
- ruthlessimon
- Posts: 2094
- Joined: Wed Mar 23, 2016 3:54 pm
The sensible option? This is why I lol @ psychology - especially when it's branded around by traders who have a meticulous quantitative understanding of the market *cough* Peter *cough*iambic_pentameter wrote: ↑Wed Aug 15, 2018 9:00 amThe 'sensible' option would be to take the loss but as we all know, sometimes the move corrects itself and goes back to where it was previously.
It's all about knowing the right thing to do, given this information
What's the right thing to do when the back bet spikes the short fav 10ticks? What's the right thing to do when a lay bet spikes the 3rd 20 ticks? What's the right thing to do when the fav spikes down 2 ticks?
Peter would know those answers - so there's no excuse for us not knowing
If someone doesn't know those answers, I think it's extremely unfair (& wrong) to blame their psychology.
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ruthlessimon wrote: ↑Sun Aug 19, 2018 2:27 pmWhat's the right thing to do when the back bet spikes the short fav 10ticks? What's the right thing to do when a lay bet spikes the 3rd 20 ticks? What's the right thing to do when the fav spikes down 2 ticks?
Peter would know those answers - so there's no excuse for us not knowing
If someone doesn't know those answers, I think it's extremely unfair (& wrong) to blame their psychology.
I think you're barking up the wrong tree if you're assuming Peter has some kind of list showing him what to do if a fav moves 10 ticks, Simon. Manual trading is a lot more intuitive and you don't look at moves in isolation, you take the market as a whole to decide if moves will be sustained. I'd be very surprised if Peter has all this information regarding singular ticks moves you assume he has.
- ruthlessimon
- Posts: 2094
- Joined: Wed Mar 23, 2016 3:54 pm
I'm defo not saying my way is the right way & he defo won't have the data in my format (i.e. 10ticks, 11ticks, 12ticks spike etc etc); but I'd be extremely surprised if he hadn't done any form of quantitative work on spikes/speeds of movesspreadbetting wrote: ↑Sun Aug 19, 2018 2:49 pmI think you're barking up the wrong tree if you're assuming Peter has some kind of list showing him what to do if a fav moves 10 ticks, Simon. I'd be very surprised if Peter has all this information regarding singular ticks moves you assume he has.
Absolutely, & the spikes are a small portion of that overall picture. I haven't got a clue how I could merge all the little nuggets I've come across over the yr's into an overarching automated method (yet )spreadbetting wrote: ↑Sun Aug 19, 2018 2:49 pmyou take the market as a whole to decide if moves will be sustained.
- ruthlessimon
- Posts: 2094
- Joined: Wed Mar 23, 2016 3:54 pm
I'd take a stab at saying he's taken it even further. Possibly even modelled exactly what happens after a big spike. For example, people like Iambic - traders caught with their pants down needing to exit (don't know what to do/panic) causing a further continuation - which becomes the real low/high. Just a hypothesis, but I like it i.e. after a big spike, just wait for Iambic to puke, then reversespreadbetting wrote: ↑Sun Aug 19, 2018 2:49 pmI think you're barking up the wrong tree if you're assuming Peter has some kind of list showing him what to do if a fav moves 10 ticks
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- Joined: Sun Jan 31, 2010 8:06 pm
I'm glad night racing is coming to an end