Trading Horse racing : Australian racing

The sport of kings.
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mark1
Posts: 1
Joined: Fri Mar 01, 2013 4:53 am

Fri Mar 01, 2013 5:26 am

I would be interested to know if any pros manage to make anything from Australian racing or, as I suspect, the liqidity is simply not there. I ask because I am a night shift worker, and have access to my laptop when the Australian racing is on.

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CaerMyrddin
Posts: 1263
Joined: Mon Sep 07, 2009 10:47 am

Fri Mar 01, 2013 11:16 am

€347k matched right now at the 8th at Moonee Valley, but very tricky to trade with the turnover charge.

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Euler
Posts: 15107
Joined: Wed Nov 10, 2010 1:39 pm
Location: Bet Angel HQ
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Fri Mar 01, 2013 11:23 am

You can get some volume on Moonee Valley but its the meetings on Wednesday and Saturday in the early hours of the morning that attract most activity. But as already mentioned the 1.5% turnover charge is a killer.

There is a sub section on the forum for Australian racing: -

viewforum.php?f=32

rubysglory
Posts: 309
Joined: Thu Nov 04, 2010 7:02 am

Thu Mar 07, 2013 5:45 am

Flemington this Saturday will be the biggest day of the Autumn calendar.

rg

davidg56
Posts: 11
Joined: Wed Dec 19, 2012 11:33 pm

Thu Mar 07, 2013 12:58 pm

As an Aussie BA user I'm interested in listening to and observing this thread. What level of liquidity determines whether or not the Australian markets are viable?

switesh
Posts: 527
Joined: Mon Jul 11, 2011 8:43 am

Sat Aug 03, 2013 8:07 am

With Mooney Valley on the card today I was calm and positive about the day (despite the muggy weather). Cruised through the day with breeze. Liquidity was decent and caught one big swing, rest was the usual scalping. Used trading bank of 1.5k.

Love it when something works smooth and consistent.

I've been trying to increase my average net profit but I believe that might come a slight drop in strike rate.
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PeterLe
Posts: 3287
Joined: Wed Apr 15, 2009 3:19 pm

Sat Aug 03, 2013 8:16 am

Nice result Switesh, all that hard work you're putting in is begining to pay off! :D
Regards
Peter

switesh
Posts: 527
Joined: Mon Jul 11, 2011 8:43 am

Sat Aug 03, 2013 12:23 pm

Thanks PeterLe.

Aus racing has been kindly positive and net profitable almost every time I've traded it so far, and I'm grateful for that.

But I'm struggling a lot to get my performance in UK racing on the green side. I've actively traded about 5000 UK races since Jan (and a lot more last year) and can barely keep my bank on the green side.

I'm trying to fix my strike rate which is rather poor averaging around 50%. My Entry points are rusty and I'm trying all I can to repair it with what tools I have.
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PeterLe
Posts: 3287
Joined: Wed Apr 15, 2009 3:19 pm

Sat Aug 03, 2013 8:08 pm

HI Switesh
I dont think you are alone when it comes to trading UK racing; a lot of people are finding it hard. A lot of the full timers says it harder than ever nowadays.

Looking at your P&L graph - Might be worthwhile constructing a spreadsheet on your P&L (if you haven't already) and creating a pivot table based on the data from the time you started. This will show you which races on the sample you have been profitable, I would zoom in on the odds.

Peter covers this on his course, illustrated in the form of a heat map. Whereby he explains how to predict the volatility and risk associated with each trade.
If you work out which type of races you should leave alone and focus on the ones that are easier to trade it may help your overall P&L.
Regards
Peter
PS If you dont have the full P&L in spreadsheet format that far back, you can request it via betfair, they will send it to you

Zenyatta
Posts: 1057
Joined: Thu Mar 11, 2010 4:17 pm

Sun Aug 04, 2013 8:07 am

Hi switesh,

On this forum, I've made no secret of the fact I've had huge problems trying to get any profit out of trading in UK horse racing. It's the swing trading I want to master (I'm not really interested in scalping).


The multi-horse markets (generally competitive handicaps where many horses have similar prices) are the difficult ones; price movements are impossible to predict, study of form won't help that much (I can't really predict much better than chance). These markets are where I've generally had a lot of bad beat-downs and done a lot of dumb things.

The one- and two-horse markets (markets where only 1 or 2 horses dominate the book) are the best swing trading markets, I had some success here. Study of form can help you a little here... I can predict price moves slightly better than 50% accuracy after form study.

The easiest markets are the big feature races. You CAN actually predict the price movements here with significantly better than 50% accuracy if you know your horse racing and you study the form. I had my biggest wins here.

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