Australian racing

[Heisenberg]

Yes I get the official times from Tabtouch. I'll collect the suspension times tomorrow and compare them against the official times. In the last few weeks I'm seeing a lot of 7, 8 and even occasionally 9 second differentials whereas previously you could bank on it being a second either side of 5 seconds. I managed to get a bet matched after they jumped at Healesville greyhounds last week. You can do it each Sunday at Capalaba but it's the first time I've ever been able to get on after the start at another greyhound track.

[deestar]

Thanks. Where did you get official off time? Tabtouch?

Be good to start logging the In Play times against official off times see if there are certain courses where they cock up. Seen some weird BSP's returned recently where they've obviously missed the off and the fav had a bad start. Last one I saw was 22 BSP against a 2.2 tote price and the fav came nowhere. With the trots you get all spikes as those seem the one's they have most trouble turning the market in play.

I'd always assumed the spikes you saw at the Trots were because of the mobile starts where someone can "break" and they still let them go. A bit like in NH were a runner is a long way behind the others at the walk in. Obviously the race doesn't go in play until the barrier arms are turned in so such things are just part and parcel of a live exchange. But if the suspend time is multiple seconds after the actual start then any integrity in the BSP is gone. Very poor if true.

[spreadbetting]

Yes I get the official times from Tabtouch. I'll collect the suspension times tomorrow and compare them against the official times. In the last few weeks I'm seeing a lot of 7, 8 and even occasionally 9 second differentials whereas previously you could bank on it being a second either side of 5 seconds. I managed to get a bet matched after they jumped at Healesville greyhounds last week. You can do it each Sunday at Capalaba but it's the first time I've ever been able to get on after the start at another greyhound track.

Thanks, they seem to be getting really lax at the moment with jump times it'll be interesting to see just how far out from the off times they are.

At the start of lockdown Betfair were ringing people to get them to provide more liquidity and I mentioned the fact they were unreliable suspending at the off which was one of the reasons I wouldn't stick more thru the markets. Said they'd pass it on.

The BSP used to mirror the tote prices quite well, these days you'll see most meetings where at least 3 of the winners return a BSP less than the tote price which seems to suggest anyone getting a flyer is being backed well into the race and any poor starters are returning double the tote prices if not more.

[spreadbetting]

Thanks. Where did you get official off time? Tabtouch?

Be good to start logging the In Play times against official off times see if there are certain courses where they cock up. Seen some weird BSP's returned recently where they've obviously missed the off and the fav had a bad start. Last one I saw was 22 BSP against a 2.2 tote price and the fav came nowhere. With the trots you get all spikes as those seem the one's they have most trouble turning the market in play.

I'd always assumed the spikes you saw at the Trots were because of the mobile starts where someone can "break" and they still let them go. A bit like in NH were a runner is a long way behind the others at the walk in. Obviously the race doesn't go in play until the barrier arms are turned in so such things are just part and parcel of a live exchange. But if the suspend time is multiple seconds after the actual start then any integrity in the BSP is gone. Very poor if true.

Yep trots will always have false starts too so they do seem to hold back turning the market in play until they're certain its off. Can hardly expect the BSP to be representative if they're still trading 9 seconds or so into a race. Sad thing is the AUS markets used to be so reliable so were perfect for botting.

[Anbell]

On my AM radio feed for the past few days, when the caller calls that they have started, BF goes in play at about the same time.

Has my radio feed slowed, or BF has improved?

Anyone have similar/different experience?

I just called the radio station - they hadnt realized that one of their satellites had drifted. Back to normal tomorrow

[Heisenberg]

I only have a sample of 10 races today but all went in play 5-7 seconds after the official jump.

[spreadbetting]

I only have a sample of 10 races today but all went in play 5-7 seconds after the official jump.

Thanks, that's ridiculous. If UK racing was that far out they'd be an outcry, I thought the Aus regulators were a lot more on the ball about fairness.

[Heisenberg]

While I agree with what you are saying, logistically it's a bit of a nightmare.

Tabcorp make no secret of the fact that they don't want Betfair in Australia so they aren't going to sell them the fast pics (which they have the rights to). So BF are stuck with the delayed vision that the rest of us schmucks have to live with.

They could suspend off the AM radio call which is real time, but on busy days only about half the scheduled races get air time so you'd end up with a situation where some races are suspended on time while others are 5+ seconds behind. It would drive the automated players bonkers.

You could make an argument that suspending when the last horse is going into the gate is probably the fairest option but that would come at the expense of liquidity (and BF's profit). A much greater percentage of the total hold goes on in the last 30 seconds before the jump when compared to UK markets. The market would adapt in time, but short term there would be some pain.

What I don't understand is with harness racing, why they don't suspend at a point during the score up which is consistent with the picture delay is beyond me. The car travels at the same pace and the start is always in a predetermined spot, there's no reason why this couldn't be done and while it wouldn't eliminate the early gallopers blowing out in the market, it would prevent the privileged few from smashing the fast starters before the market goes in play.

[spreadbetting]

How liquid are the in play markets? I thought Aus based punters could only bet in play by phone and that's obviously not viable for racing. There must be people cleaning up on the Aus markets much like the early days of Betfair when the racetech guys where making fortunes.

[Heisenberg]

How liquid are the in play markets? I thought Aus based punters could only bet in play by phone and that's obviously not viable for racing. There must be people cleaning up on the Aus markets much like the early days of Betfair when the racetech guys where making fortunes.

Racing in-play is allowed, it's just 'sport' that is restricted by law and has to be done by phone (and nobody takes any notice of that anyway, VPN or VPS solves that issue).

In play liquidity is pretty poor and most of the liquidity is around the favourite and to a lesser degree the second favourite. Markets hover between 110% and 130% (with usually only a few bucks being offered at the head of the queue) until just before the home turn in most races and then a heap of the market drops out and it becomes very thin. Most of the action happens in the first few seconds after the jump and in the last furlong. Very little happens in the middle stages, if you put in a decent back request mid race it will just kill the market. You'd think that there would be an opportunity to manipulate the market to a degree but it generally doesn't happen, any unusual money and the market sort of shuts down.

[Heisenberg]

I'll do a video tomorrow with accompanying (race) video to show how the AU markets move.

[rik]

I'll do a video tomorrow with accompanying (race) video to show how the AU markets move.

thank you, that would be very interesting

[megarain]

The lack of a consistent platform/delay is probably hindering the in-running liquidity more than anything else.

Heisenberg wrote an excellent summation of the current pic availability.

With Singapore racing being postponed, some of the pics on international satellites got slightly faster, but that ends tomorrow.

Harness racing is v tricky to turn in-play - and its a disaster if the races get turned in-play and a false start is called. I wouldn't really
fancy the job.

[Derek27]

You could make an argument that suspending when the last horse is going into the gate is probably the fairest option but that would come at the expense of liquidity (and BF's profit).

That sounds like a good idea to me, or just suspending anytime early. Any profit Betfair loses would be the price for integrity of BSP, more satisfied customers and would surely draw in some trading from traders that have more confidence in the exchange.

[megarain]

I dont especially care .. but it does seem the starters regularly get horses withdrawn for re-vet-examinations after playing up.

Betfair cant win .. if a race gets turned in play/bets all cancelled, and then another lengthy delay ensues.