I often find myself desperately wanting to discuss my mistakes or trades with someone - just to bounce opinions and learn from any mistakes that aren't quite apparent to a lesser seasoned trader, but are easily identifiable to a more trained eye. Hence I thought I open a thread for traders to post/discuss their mistakes and possibly receive constructive feedback from seasoned traders.
Also, in general, I encourage other lesser seasoned traders (like myself) and newbies to post their mistakes here so I hope those that provide feedback will kindly be more constructive and polite than "that's just the way the market works, get used to it".
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I would kindly appreciate if someone could tell me what was wrong with my thinking to open & exit this trade. I saw a sharp drift here and thought a correction might be due anytime soon, so when I saw a bit of resistance forming at the top I was expecting this to reverse and steam about 5 ticks or so, but I certainly wasn't going to let the loss run past 3 ticks otherwise it would simply inverse the risk:reward ratio for this trade.
I couldn't see the runner rear up in stall on BF live video, so I was trying to look for a reason why this drift persisted sharply even further. The other runners seemed to move around slightly, but none of them made a sharp counter move or anything, so I couldn't find a reason for this quick loss, or a bad decision to get involved in this trade.
Discuss Trading Mistakes & receive Feedback
Sometimes, you do your research, reach conclusions, but the market persists in not conforming to your expectations, for no apparent reason i.e. not rearing etc.
Accept that it might be information is known to a few that is not in general ciculation. See some after race explainations of why horses don't perform or exceed as expected. Why wasn't this information put into public domain?
"If in doubt get out" or don't go there in the first place.
Accept that it might be information is known to a few that is not in general ciculation. See some after race explainations of why horses don't perform or exceed as expected. Why wasn't this information put into public domain?
"If in doubt get out" or don't go there in the first place.
SW, a couple of observations.
1) You need to look at the bigger picture. Are you trading this one horse? I never trade a runner. I trade the market. Try dumping the graphs and technical analysis and try to look for dominant trends within the market. If there are 3 or 4 runners all being backed it's very, very difficult.
2) Why are you trading a horse at this price? At this price there is no room for error. Under 3.5 is where you need to be until you have a better understanding.
The reasons, whatever they are do not matter. Detach all that. I know you have read the reading the market part 1 guide. Remember the scales and the balance of the market.
You work so hard SW, you deserve to crack it my friend.
1) You need to look at the bigger picture. Are you trading this one horse? I never trade a runner. I trade the market. Try dumping the graphs and technical analysis and try to look for dominant trends within the market. If there are 3 or 4 runners all being backed it's very, very difficult.
2) Why are you trading a horse at this price? At this price there is no room for error. Under 3.5 is where you need to be until you have a better understanding.
The reasons, whatever they are do not matter. Detach all that. I know you have read the reading the market part 1 guide. Remember the scales and the balance of the market.
You work so hard SW, you deserve to crack it my friend.
Thanks Mugs.
Yes, I discarded Technical Analysis long back and have focused on Market reading more-so since. Though, I still look at tops and bottoms to find low risk entry points. In this instance the next 2 runners were relatively at the bottom of the range so that explains the drift on the runner I traded. But in the last 1 minute the steamers weren't going any further. They seemed to be stable and were bumping along sideways.
Often in the past I've seen the price for a runner shoot out very quickly for no apparent reason (no big bet, or a counter move for another runner) and traders step in to correct this anomaly. So when I look at something that drifts too fast and nothing else (one or more runners) steaming in roughly equivalent proportions I tend to think that this quick drift is a false move and surely 'experienced' money will correct it.
That was my thought with this trade. Oh, yes I do look at the overall market, though maybe I'm not drawing the right conclusions from it to put on the right trade.
About 'cracking it', I face each trading session everyday knowing full well that the end of day PL will be negative (and it almost always is), but my intention is simply to learn from mistakes and protect my capital which is depleting by a growing fraction everyday.
Yes, I discarded Technical Analysis long back and have focused on Market reading more-so since. Though, I still look at tops and bottoms to find low risk entry points. In this instance the next 2 runners were relatively at the bottom of the range so that explains the drift on the runner I traded. But in the last 1 minute the steamers weren't going any further. They seemed to be stable and were bumping along sideways.
Often in the past I've seen the price for a runner shoot out very quickly for no apparent reason (no big bet, or a counter move for another runner) and traders step in to correct this anomaly. So when I look at something that drifts too fast and nothing else (one or more runners) steaming in roughly equivalent proportions I tend to think that this quick drift is a false move and surely 'experienced' money will correct it.
That was my thought with this trade. Oh, yes I do look at the overall market, though maybe I'm not drawing the right conclusions from it to put on the right trade.
About 'cracking it', I face each trading session everyday knowing full well that the end of day PL will be negative (and it almost always is), but my intention is simply to learn from mistakes and protect my capital which is depleting by a growing fraction everyday.
I know that Mugs has given you a reply that encompasses the market rather than one particular horses odds action.switesh wrote:-----------------------------------------------------
I would kindly appreciate if someone could tell me what was wrong with my thinking to open & exit this trade. I saw a sharp drift here and thought a correction might be due anytime soon, so when I saw a bit of resistance forming at the top I was expecting this to reverse and steam about 5 ticks or so, but I certainly wasn't going to let the loss run past 3 ticks otherwise it would simply inverse the risk:reward ratio for this trade.
I couldn't see the runner rear up in stall on BF live video, so I was trying to look for a reason why this drift persisted sharply even further. The other runners seemed to move around slightly, but none of them made a sharp counter move or anything, so I couldn't find a reason for this quick loss, or a bad decision to get involved in this trade.
I just want to ask you one question and that is "why" did you decide that the hesitation at ~7.6 was an indication that a reversal was imminent?
My reading of that particular horse is that it had been backed down from 7's to 4's early and prior to racing started drifting (it doesn't matter why...whether the drift was because of rearing or support for another runner). The fact that it was being opposed significantly from 4's out to 7.6 is enough to tell you that very few people thought it was going to win. The earlier "hesitation" at 5.2 (a resistance point) was smashed through on its way to 7.6 (breaking another resistance at 6.2) and it looks pretty obvious that the opposition would eventually drive it to the next resistance at 8.6 (which is where you were forced to exit).
From the chart I cannot see why you felt that 7.6 was a) a reversal point and b) a good entry point for a reverse trade.
Switesh
You remind me of me a few years back (and to some extent still now). Analysis of the markets can be very interesting, but there's such a thing as over-analysis and over-complication. Be wary of tying yourself in knots, and searching for that moment of enlightenment when the market will reveal itself to you. It probably ain't gonna happen.
There's little you need to get right to cross the barrier from loss to profit, so you need to ask yourself why you are still making a loss. It's possible that, through practice, you will eventually cross the barrier, but I consider that highly unlikely. If your existing approach was going to yield a profit, it would have done so by now. I think what you need is a paradigm shift, and to consider in particular your psychological approach to trading.
From your contributions to the 'Chart of the Day' thread, my guess is that you are fond of trend trading. I imagine that where you lose money isn't because you lack the fine judgement needed to assess the market to the nth degree; it's that, like many traders, you cut your profits and let your losses run.
This is meant as constructive, and I hope it helps.
Jeff
You remind me of me a few years back (and to some extent still now). Analysis of the markets can be very interesting, but there's such a thing as over-analysis and over-complication. Be wary of tying yourself in knots, and searching for that moment of enlightenment when the market will reveal itself to you. It probably ain't gonna happen.
There's little you need to get right to cross the barrier from loss to profit, so you need to ask yourself why you are still making a loss. It's possible that, through practice, you will eventually cross the barrier, but I consider that highly unlikely. If your existing approach was going to yield a profit, it would have done so by now. I think what you need is a paradigm shift, and to consider in particular your psychological approach to trading.
From your contributions to the 'Chart of the Day' thread, my guess is that you are fond of trend trading. I imagine that where you lose money isn't because you lack the fine judgement needed to assess the market to the nth degree; it's that, like many traders, you cut your profits and let your losses run.
This is meant as constructive, and I hope it helps.
Jeff
Hi Switesh,
Like Mugs and Euler I applaude your commitment and I also like your attitude to the whole conundrum.
The one point I'd like to make is if you expect to make a loss on most days, why are you trading with stakes above minimum? Currently your losses are the price of your trading education so why pay more for it than you need too.
In my opinion, get consistly profitable with minimum stakes and then work your way up.I believe what you can achieve with £2 stakes can pretty much be achieved with £50 stakes if not more so you then have a basis to work from.
Obviosly trading styles come into play but hopefully you get my point.
I'm willing to be shot down in flames over the point by more experienced traders but its an approach that has worked for me.
Good luck with it all and like Le Tiss I think this thread could hopefully prove to be a valuable one for a lot of people.
Like Mugs and Euler I applaude your commitment and I also like your attitude to the whole conundrum.
The one point I'd like to make is if you expect to make a loss on most days, why are you trading with stakes above minimum? Currently your losses are the price of your trading education so why pay more for it than you need too.
In my opinion, get consistly profitable with minimum stakes and then work your way up.I believe what you can achieve with £2 stakes can pretty much be achieved with £50 stakes if not more so you then have a basis to work from.
Obviosly trading styles come into play but hopefully you get my point.
I'm willing to be shot down in flames over the point by more experienced traders but its an approach that has worked for me.
Good luck with it all and like Le Tiss I think this thread could hopefully prove to be a valuable one for a lot of people.
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steven1976
- Posts: 1744
- Joined: Tue Jan 19, 2010 6:28 am
Hi Switesh,
I often find it surprising how such big liabilities are matched on these outsiders and not discussed. I know the simple answer is that they don't have much chance of winning but sometimes 1000s upon 1000s are taken on in a matter of mili seconds which leaves someone with around 40k liability you would imagine. It's common to see around 10s where suddenly odds shoot up from say around 9.2 to 10s.
Have you ever thought of splitting your stake and preparing your next position if the market goes against you. For example if your first entry point was 7.6 for 35 pounds, why not enter 17 pounds instead and put a second back bet in the queue at 8s so if suddenly 1000s come laying in against your position you can scratch at 7.8, add to the lay side (if your quick enough) and be in a good position on both sides of the book.
A good blog/site I read recently was betmunky with some good videos for very short term markets and you may get an idea of some ideas of how some people are already thinking of their next position as they enter their first position which is important I believe if you know nothing about horses and you are simply trading the numbers.
Outsiders are harder in my book as mugs game already advises. I believe this is because there are less people trading them than short favourites.
Some other good advice I read recently was Le Tiss (i think) saying about trading only sports he knows and understands. This is excellent advice and the same advice a friend of mine who is quite successful on football shares. He loses almost every month on horses as he doesn't know horse racing and plays just for fun. However, doing something he knows and understands he wins substantially.
I often find it surprising how such big liabilities are matched on these outsiders and not discussed. I know the simple answer is that they don't have much chance of winning but sometimes 1000s upon 1000s are taken on in a matter of mili seconds which leaves someone with around 40k liability you would imagine. It's common to see around 10s where suddenly odds shoot up from say around 9.2 to 10s.
Have you ever thought of splitting your stake and preparing your next position if the market goes against you. For example if your first entry point was 7.6 for 35 pounds, why not enter 17 pounds instead and put a second back bet in the queue at 8s so if suddenly 1000s come laying in against your position you can scratch at 7.8, add to the lay side (if your quick enough) and be in a good position on both sides of the book.
A good blog/site I read recently was betmunky with some good videos for very short term markets and you may get an idea of some ideas of how some people are already thinking of their next position as they enter their first position which is important I believe if you know nothing about horses and you are simply trading the numbers.
Outsiders are harder in my book as mugs game already advises. I believe this is because there are less people trading them than short favourites.
Some other good advice I read recently was Le Tiss (i think) saying about trading only sports he knows and understands. This is excellent advice and the same advice a friend of mine who is quite successful on football shares. He loses almost every month on horses as he doesn't know horse racing and plays just for fun. However, doing something he knows and understands he wins substantially.
Hi Switesh
Good thread; Im sure we will all learn something from this..
Just to add my comments into the mix..
Its hard to make specific comments from the data in the opening post, but irrespective of what the chart is showing, the correlation on the other horses is a key factor. With the book % being so tight, if you see one or more other horses being backed/laid it will have an effect on the fav. With the odds at these prices though it will be lesser so than at say 2's for instance.
In short, other runners must have come in slightly to make up the book, part of the trick is keeping an eye on the whole of the market not just that one runner (not easy but doable)
Regards
Peter
Good thread; Im sure we will all learn something from this..
Just to add my comments into the mix..
Its hard to make specific comments from the data in the opening post, but irrespective of what the chart is showing, the correlation on the other horses is a key factor. With the book % being so tight, if you see one or more other horses being backed/laid it will have an effect on the fav. With the odds at these prices though it will be lesser so than at say 2's for instance.
In short, other runners must have come in slightly to make up the book, part of the trick is keeping an eye on the whole of the market not just that one runner (not easy but doable)
Regards
Peter
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convoysur-2
- Posts: 1110
- Joined: Thu Jan 12, 2012 10:00 am
Hi swetish
like you im still trying to get it right ,
one thing i have learned (from mugs videos ) is that quite often when we have a drifter and then we see money holding it up is not to be afraid because ften just some one holding it down with a large amount so they can lay below it ,when they get there money layed the large back amount above it disappears and it suddenly shouts out another 2-4 or more ticks as they move the money to the lay side to support it out,
this tactic is also mused on the reverse of that ,
and ive been doing quite well watching this in the markets and riding on there back ,they do the work and with my small bank i make a couple of ticks ,im sure the profitable traders on here are familour with this,in fact id be supprised if there not doing it as its a very profitable technique.watch for it and im sure you will see what i mean .make sence any one ??????
MARC
like you im still trying to get it right ,
one thing i have learned (from mugs videos ) is that quite often when we have a drifter and then we see money holding it up is not to be afraid because ften just some one holding it down with a large amount so they can lay below it ,when they get there money layed the large back amount above it disappears and it suddenly shouts out another 2-4 or more ticks as they move the money to the lay side to support it out,
this tactic is also mused on the reverse of that ,
and ive been doing quite well watching this in the markets and riding on there back ,they do the work and with my small bank i make a couple of ticks ,im sure the profitable traders on here are familour with this,in fact id be supprised if there not doing it as its a very profitable technique.watch for it and im sure you will see what i mean .make sence any one ??????
MARC
Hi Marc
I've noticed that too.
I think people's egos can struggle with just exploiting particular patterns of market behaviour. The ego is unreasonable and wants complete understanding and mastery to maintain its illusion of control. I would say that profitable trading is like dieting (something I'm currently attempting): it's simple but not easy, as you have thoughts and emotions constantly pulling you away from your goal.
Jeff
I've noticed that too.
I think people's egos can struggle with just exploiting particular patterns of market behaviour. The ego is unreasonable and wants complete understanding and mastery to maintain its illusion of control. I would say that profitable trading is like dieting (something I'm currently attempting): it's simple but not easy, as you have thoughts and emotions constantly pulling you away from your goal.
Jeff
convoysur-2 wrote: one thing i have learned (from mugs videos) is that quite often when we have a drifter and then we see money holding it up is not to be afraid because ften just some one holding it down with a large amount so they can lay below it
hi, I've only been trading for afew days but have been punting horses for many years.
This does sound a very simple explanation but, the horse you backed was very uneasy in the market and was clearly not something to get involved in. I know some horses can have a sharp drift and then as you say the market corrects itself and comes back in, but if that is the only reason you have for backing it surely it was just a no go area.
This does sound a very simple explanation but, the horse you backed was very uneasy in the market and was clearly not something to get involved in. I know some horses can have a sharp drift and then as you say the market corrects itself and comes back in, but if that is the only reason you have for backing it surely it was just a no go area.
I know some people (including Euler) do very well from counter-trend trading, but if a market is trending then it's more likely to continue in its current direction than to suddenly reverse.kroni wrote:I know some horses can have a sharp drift and then as you say the market corrects itself and comes back in, but if that is the only reason you have for backing it surely it was just a no go area.
If you are going to go counter-trend, then you have to be prepared to accept that the trend might be nowhere near over (even if it appears to be flagging), and get out ASAP if the market goes against you.
Jeff